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Updated playoff projection

M

Mitchell county mountie

All-Conference
Aug 27, 2015
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With this weeks rankings and updated conference champion predictions.
I have the following winning their conference:
Tarboro
East Surry
Mitchell
Robbinsville
Bear Grass Charter
East Columbus
East Carteret
Granville Central
Elkin
Holmes
North Edgecombe
Princeton
North Rowan
Thomas Jefferson
The big/small cutoff is between Union Academy (495) and Rosewood (492)

1aa East

1 Tarboro
2 Holmes
3 Princeton
4 Granville Central
5 Manteo
6 South Stokes
7 Hobbton
8 South Stanly
9 North Stanly
10 Louisburg
11 Lakewood
12 East Carteret

1aa West

1 East Surry
2 North Rowan
3 Mount Airy
4 Swain
5 Polk
6 Mountain Island
7 Bessemer City
8 Avery
9 Starmount
10 East Wilkes
11 Union Academy
12 Community School of Davidson

1a East

1 North Edgecombe
2 Rosewood
3 Washington County
4 Pamlico
5 Northside
6 Northampton
7 Gates County
8 South Creek
9 Southside
10 Weldon
11 Perquimans
12 Bear Grass Charter

1a West

1 Robbinsville
2 Mitchell
3 Elkin
4 Thomas Jefferson
5 Murphy
6 Hayesville
7 Winston Salem Prep
8 Andrews
9 Allegany
10 North Duplin
11 North Stokes
12 East Columbus
 
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M

Mitchell county mountie

All-Conference
Aug 27, 2015
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Also, Pine Lake Prep is sitting on the outside looking in. If they ended up with a berth, and Mitchell goes big, that would bump East Surry and North Rowan to the East.
 
M

Mitchell county mountie

All-Conference
Aug 27, 2015
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Pine Lake Prep has a winnable game this week against Cherryville, and Lakewood has a tough row to how against Princeton. Also, Louisberg has a even matchup with Warren County. If either team (or both) lose, and Pine Lake Prep wins, that would push North Rowan east... East Surry Is on the fine line between regions this year.
 
M

Maroondevilfan

Redshirt
Jan 21, 2019
25
14
0
hmmm... murphy was overlooked last year and look what they did, can they repeat. rough two weeks to be a swain fan....
 
S

Swaindad40

Junior
Jul 22, 2018
470
328
0
My 1aa West Bracket as of this week:

1 East Surry
2 Swain County
3 Mount Airy
4 North Rowan
5 Mountain Island
6 Polk County
7 Bessemer City
8 Avery
9 Starmount
10 East Wilkes
11 Union Academy
12 Community School of Davidson
 
S

Swaindad40

Junior
Jul 22, 2018
470
328
0
That’s right. Forgot how screwed up the playoff brackets are now. Murphy was a six seed two years ago because they lost the coin flip. Wow. That’s ok for Swain to be on the bottom bracket this season. As long as we don’t face east Surry in the first two rounds we can make a run. Just my thoughts.
 
E

EWCards

All-Conference
Aug 19, 2004
1,307
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I have a simple idea as to how the playoff seeding works but not for sure on several things but would EW be ahead of starmount as we speak being they are a game ahead in conference standings or is this based on overall records?
 
M

Mitchell county mountie

All-Conference
Aug 27, 2015
2,897
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EWCards#1 said:
I have a simple idea as to how the playoff seeding works but not for sure on several things but would EW be ahead of starmount as we speak being they are a game ahead in conference standings or is this based on overall records?
Click to expand...
Seeing as neither will win the 1a portion of the conference, both will be seeded according to the adjusted MaxPreps ranking. Starmount is higher than East Wilkes right now.
 
G

Gentle Knight

All-Conference
Jul 23, 2018
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Wonder if Robbinsville and/or Murphy will have a bye now win or lose with Thomas Jeffersons choke?
 
G

Gentle Knight

All-Conference
Jul 23, 2018
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Smctrain said:
Swain will be a #6. Looking at best 3rd in conference, won’t get a #2 seed.
Click to expand...
Possibly even 9th for Swain. The updated adjusted maxpreps rankings were not updated to show the Swain loss and Robbinsville win since the game was Monday.
Swain could plummet with the new rankings Monday.
 
T

Thunder_struck8712

All-American
Oct 5, 2016
4,954
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EWCards#1 said:
I have a simple idea as to how the playoff seeding works but not for sure on several things but would EW be ahead of starmount as we speak being they are a game ahead in conference standings or is this based on overall records?
Click to expand...

All that means is when they select teams for playoffs is Starmount can't earn a playoff bid over or before East Wilkes. They'll seed as mentioned based upon maxpreps ranking
 
K

KW2346

All-Conference
Feb 9, 2011
4,283
3,425
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Gentle Knight said:
Wonder if Robbinsville and/or Murphy will have a bye now win or lose with Thomas Jeffersons choke?
Click to expand...
. One of them was going to have a bye regardless but now both could get a bye if Thomas Jefferson loses the coin flip and doesn't get 1 seed from their conference...could be a 2 seed team with a bye. Murphy robbinsville winner and elkin and Mitchell will have a bye..and either Thomas Jefferson or robbinsville murphy loser will have a bye.
 
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Gentle Knight

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Jul 23, 2018
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KW23 said:
. One of them was going to have a bye regardless but now both could get a bye if Thomas Jefferson loses the coin flip and doesn't get 1 seed from their conference...could be a 2 seed team with a bye. Murphy robbinsville winner and elkin and Mitchell will have a bye..and either Thomas Jefferson or robbinsville murphy loser will have a bye.
Click to expand...
Last year Murphy and Robbinsville had first round byes but imagine that's because Elkin didn't win conference.
 
Old Mountaineer

Old Mountaineer

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Nov 4, 2018
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1 Tarboro
2 Robbinsville
3 East Surry
4 Murphy
5 Holmes
6 Princeton
7 Mount Airy
8 Swain County
9 Mitchell
10 Elkin
11 Polk
12Thomas Jefferson
13 Manteo
14 Rosewood
15 Mtn Island Charter
Above is the last NCHSAA adjusted rankings. My guess is MIC will move to 10 Swain will drop out of top to 11 Mitchell will move to 8 and Elkin to 9 the rest stay the same.
Mitchell is probably the only top 10 that's on the ADM bubble, Murphy folk seem pretty confident thier below 500. If they can beat Avery in thier last game then if they go 1A it will probably be Robbinsville and Murphy 1 & 2 in the west with Mitchell 3 and Elkin 4 assuming they beat Allegheny, Mitchell's only hope for a 2 would be a Murphy lost but being 4 spots behind still may not would help.
If they go 1AA East Surry will probably stay in the west like the last time both were 1AA in 2015. If Mt Airy pulls a upset win over EC then they will be 1 & 2 in the west with Mitchell again at 3 and MIC 4 , but if EC wins and if Mitchell is at 8 and MA at 7 next week in rankings then Mitchell would probably move to 2. But I believe MA may stay above MIC at 4 in this scenario because of strength of schedule.
 
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M

Mitchell county mountie

All-Conference
Aug 27, 2015
2,897
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Old Mountaineer said:
1 Tarboro
2 Robbinsville
3 East Surry
4 Murphy
5 Holmes
6 Princeton
7 Mount Airy
8 Swain County
9 Mitchell
10 Elkin
11 Polk
12Thomas Jefferson
13 Manteo
14 Rosewood
15 Mtn Island Charter
Above is the last NCHSAA adjusted rankings. My guess is MIC will move to 10 Swain will drop out of top to 11 Mitchell will move to 8 and Elkin to 9 the rest stay the same.
Mitchell is probably the only top 10 that's on the ADM bubble, Murphy folk seem pretty confident thier below 500. If they can beat Avery in thier last game then if they go 1A it will probably be Robbinsville and Murphy 1 & 2 in the west with Mitchell 3 and Elkin 4 assuming they beat Allegheny, Mitchell's only hope for a 2 would be a Murphy lost but being 4 spots behind still may not would help.
If they go 1AA East Surry will probably stay in the west like the last time both were 1AA in 2015. If Mt Airy pulls a upset win over EC then they will be 1 & 2 in the west with Mitchell again at 3 and MIC 4 , but if EC wins and if Mitchell is at 8 and MA at 7 next week in rankings then Mitchell would probably move to 2. But I believe MA may stay above MIC at 4 in this scenario because of strength of schedule.
Click to expand...
The winner of the Robbinsville/Murphy game will get the #1 seed, Mitchell would get the #2 if they beat Avery and go small.
 
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Old Mountaineer

Old Mountaineer

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Mitchell county mountie said:
The winner of the Robbinsville/Murphy game will get the #1 seed, Mitchell would get the #2 if they beat Avery and go small.
Click to expand...
You may be right. But I can see a possible scenario of Murphy staying one above Mitchell because of the better str but Mitchell would have a one game better record. But last year coming into the playoffs Murphy had the better record but Mitchell had the better str and Mitchell got the higher seed. So I can see it going ether way.
 
M

Mitchell county mountie

All-Conference
Aug 27, 2015
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Ok guys, so this is how it works. Conference Champions get seeded first. If you are in a split conference you must finish .500 and top 3 in the conference overall to get top seeding. Then the 2nd place teams get seeded, then the brackets are filled in by rankings. If you win the 1a portion of the conference, and you aren't above .500 or finish top 3 overall (East or west Columbus), then you we be seeded with the high seed fillers. There are no 1a conferences large enough to garner 3 auto bids into the playoffs (9+ teams in a conference), so if you are in a strait 1a your conference will receive 2 auto bids to 1st and 2nd place finishers, split conferences will receive 1 auto bid from the 1a portion.
 
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Old Mountaineer

Old Mountaineer

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Mitchell county mountie said:
Ok guys, so this is how it works. Conference Champions get seeded first. If you are in a split conference you must finish .500 and top 3 in the conference overall to get top seeding. Then the 2nd place teams get seeded, then the brackets are filled in by rankings. If you win the 1a portion of the conference, and you aren't above .500 or finish top 3 overall (East or west Columbus), then you we be seeded with the high seed fillers. There are no 1a conferences large enough to garner 3 auto bids into the playoffs (9+ teams in a conference), so if you are in a strait 1a your conference will receive 2 auto bids to 1st and 2nd place finishers, split conferences will receive 1 auto bid from the 1a portion.
Click to expand...
Sorry my bad your right I had it my head that they seeded all the automatic qualifiers by the adjusted rankings all together but I just re read it and your right.
" First all regular season conference champions (and top teams from split conferences) are seeded first by their MaxPreps rankings. All second-place automatic qualifiers are seeded next by their MaxPreps rankings. Then any third-place automatic qualifiers are seeded by their MaxPreps rankings."

So your right with a Mitchell win Friday Mitchell would be seeded 2 in the west ether way.
 
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M

Mitchell county mountie

All-Conference
Aug 27, 2015
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Gentle Knight said:
Would they get the #2 if they are still behind Murphy/Robbinsville loser in the rankings?
Click to expand...
Because conference champions get seeded first. The loser of the Murphy/Robbinsville game will get probably a 5 seed behind Elkin and TJ. At best, a 4 seed if TJ doesn't meet the tie breaker criteria, and MICS gets the conference crown.
 
M

Moparforever

All-Conference
Aug 10, 2017
2,046
2,840
62
Mitchell county mountie said:
Ok guys, so this is how it works. Conference Champions get seeded first. If you are in a split conference you must finish .500 and top 3 in the conference overall to get top seeding. Then the 2nd place teams get seeded, then the brackets are filled in by rankings. If you win the 1a portion of the conference, and you aren't above .500 or finish top 3 overall (East or west Columbus), then you we be seeded with the high seed fillers. There are no 1a conferences large enough to garner 3 auto bids into the playoffs (9+ teams in a conference), so if you are in a strait 1a your conference will receive 2 auto bids to 1st and 2nd place finishers, split conferences will receive 1 auto bid from the 1a portion.
Click to expand...
So we will probably be on the road for the playoffs or could we get home? Or you have no idea yet :)
 
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