So people seemed interested in the previous iteration of this... I'll update based on currently available info and bracket projections. FWIW, this is based on the assumption that we are most likely (~60%?) to end up as a 8 or 9 seed, somewhat less likely (~35%?) to end up as a 7 or 10 seed, and fairly unlikely to end up as 6 or 11 seed.
I think a loss on Thursday to OSU or Rutgers would prob drop us to a 10. Assuming we take care of business there, think we should be at least a 9. Beating Maryland gets us up to the 8 range, with perhaps some possibility of 7? Make it to the championship, and I think we'd be a solid 7. Win the whole thing, and possibly grab a 6? All (slightly educated) guesswork here, depends on who we play / beat / lose to, and what other teams around the nation do. But that's the general framework. So based on that here are probabilities with potential top seeds in those groups for the first 2 rounds...
20% Tulsa (1 Kansas, 2/3 Baylor)
20% SLC (1 Gonzaga, 3/ maybe 2 Zona)
17.5% Greenville (1/maybe 2 UNC, unlikely to match up against 3/4 Duke)
15% Indy (2 Louisville, 2/3 Kentucky)
12.5% Buffalo (1 Nova, unlikely to match up against other 4)
7.5% Sacramento (2 Oregon, 3/2 UCLA)
5% Orlando (3/ maybe 2 Florida, 3/ maybe 2 FSU)
2.5% Milwaukee (3/4 Butler, Purdue or other 4)
Obviously that is all very much subject to change based on what happens in conf tourneys. And there are some other more subtle factors that go into why certain sites are more or less likely:
e.g. 1 Indy is a bit higher than you might expect for the 2s bc it's closest yet the likely host teams aren't from the B1G, giving us advantage over other 7/10 seeds if we land on those lines
e.g. 2 Buffalo I think is a bit lower than you might expect bc I think the 8/9 ACC teams leaving the Southeast bc UNC is in Greenville might get funneled there, also the other B1G 8/9 teams Mich MSU and maybe Md are closer and more likely to get sent there over us
e.g. 3 Milwaukee is so low because the likely host teams are in our conference / Butler has already played us in reg season
Anyways the upshot of it all is who knows where we'll go, due to the structure of the selection it's really hard to project. Have fun and Go Cats!
I think a loss on Thursday to OSU or Rutgers would prob drop us to a 10. Assuming we take care of business there, think we should be at least a 9. Beating Maryland gets us up to the 8 range, with perhaps some possibility of 7? Make it to the championship, and I think we'd be a solid 7. Win the whole thing, and possibly grab a 6? All (slightly educated) guesswork here, depends on who we play / beat / lose to, and what other teams around the nation do. But that's the general framework. So based on that here are probabilities with potential top seeds in those groups for the first 2 rounds...
20% Tulsa (1 Kansas, 2/3 Baylor)
20% SLC (1 Gonzaga, 3/ maybe 2 Zona)
17.5% Greenville (1/maybe 2 UNC, unlikely to match up against 3/4 Duke)
15% Indy (2 Louisville, 2/3 Kentucky)
12.5% Buffalo (1 Nova, unlikely to match up against other 4)
7.5% Sacramento (2 Oregon, 3/2 UCLA)
5% Orlando (3/ maybe 2 Florida, 3/ maybe 2 FSU)
2.5% Milwaukee (3/4 Butler, Purdue or other 4)
Obviously that is all very much subject to change based on what happens in conf tourneys. And there are some other more subtle factors that go into why certain sites are more or less likely:
e.g. 1 Indy is a bit higher than you might expect for the 2s bc it's closest yet the likely host teams aren't from the B1G, giving us advantage over other 7/10 seeds if we land on those lines
e.g. 2 Buffalo I think is a bit lower than you might expect bc I think the 8/9 ACC teams leaving the Southeast bc UNC is in Greenville might get funneled there, also the other B1G 8/9 teams Mich MSU and maybe Md are closer and more likely to get sent there over us
e.g. 3 Milwaukee is so low because the likely host teams are in our conference / Butler has already played us in reg season
Anyways the upshot of it all is who knows where we'll go, due to the structure of the selection it's really hard to project. Have fun and Go Cats!
