Virginia
- Thread starter wocka
- Start date
Well, after it opened at 3.5, the line quickly went up to 4.5 and stayed there overnight, but it's gone down to 3.5 in the last few hours.
Hard to know what to make of any team this early in the season. Should be a good game. I really hope we spent the last week working on our rebounding and defensive rotations. Can't rely on shooting 58% from the field and 44 % from 3 like we did last Friday.
Hard to know what to make of any team this early in the season. Should be a good game. I really hope we spent the last week working on our rebounding and defensive rotations. Can't rely on shooting 58% from the field and 44 % from 3 like we did last Friday.
Agreed on protecting our glass - and this is gonna be a tough one given that UVA has grabbed 59.1%(!) of their misses. (Ok, they haven't played anyone tougher than kp145 Marshall, and in that game they were only at 35.1% OReb - but the Herd featured 7'4" Matt Van Komen and 6'10" Wyatt Fricks)
6'9" frosh Thijs De Ridder (6'9", 238) logs major minutes for them at PF and is cleaning OReb at 13.2% (that's 134th best in the country) - however, he is at 4.0 Fouls Committed/40 and fouled out against Marshall in 30 min (and accrued 4 fouls in the home opener against Rider in 24 min). Meanwhile, they run a platoon at the 5: Johann Grunloh (FR, 7'0", 238) and Ugonna Oyenso (SR, 7'0", 245) - both of which foul their fair share (both above 3.8 FC/40), but are strong two-way rebounders (they are 1 and 2 in OReb and DReb).
Also on defense, Cats gonna have to work as UVA has been strong in ball security (only turning it over 14.8% of the time - 69th best), and they've gotten to the line (FTA/FGA is 42.7, 95th best). So far, the 'Cats have shown physical defense at point of attack, so we'll see what kind of whistle shows up in Greenbrier.
Finally, they're playing in a hotel ballroom. I believe the last time we had that kind of vibe was at the Hard Rock Riviera Maya in '23 as we beat Liberty, and then had that rock fight with Auburn (43-42, where both teams were at 0.7 PPP). Intrigued to see how that might be a factor.
iirc the issue with the Auburn game, for both teams, was bad flooring and low ceilings. Hopefully this place has at least solved the floor.
Previewing tonight's matchup:
The other day, I said
Digging deeper, for UVA on offense they are going to want to get out into transition whenever possible. So far this year nearly a quarter (23%) of their possessions have been in transition, however they haven't been particularly efficient. On defense, we are in the 95th percentile in not allowing transition plays (just 10% of possessions), but when we do allow them, the results are not great, so hopefully we are able to shut down this part of their game effectively.
If they can't get out in transition, they will look to drive to the rim (28%), though half of the time they do that they will kick it out for a 3-pointer which has been very effective for them. Defensively, we have been elite at shutting down both of these types of plays so far this year.
If they don't make the shot, they will all crash the offensive glass. They are currently #2 in the country in offensive rebound rate, and 14% of their possessions end with a shot following a rebound. This is my biggest concern, especially after DePaul destroyed us last game - 16% of DePaul possessions resulted in shots following an offensive rebound, and they scored 1.44 points/possession.
Lastly, if they decide not to drive in the halfcourt, they will either run backdoor cuts to the hoop, pick and roll passing to the big, or tossing it in for a post-up (roughly 6-7% for each). We have been good at defending the post-up and the backdoor cuts, but less good on the pick and roll.
As far as what we will try to do defensively to force them into bad shots, we will try to double a big man inside and force him to pass out for a 3, or we will try to make them take midrange shots.
Offensively, as many have noticed, our transition rate is up massively this season, also at 23% of possessions, though against DePaul we only had 14% of our possessions in transition. When we aren't in transition, UVA will want us to drive, though that has not been a big part of our offense so far this year. They will also want us to take midrange shots, which we will likely oblige.
We have been very diverse in our offensive sets so far this year, but one area that could be successful for us is taking 3s off of screens - UVA really doesn't allow many opportunities at all, but when they do they have been burned badly. The other area for us is also shots off of offensive rebounds. UVA gave up 16 points and 11 rebounds to NC Central's 6'9" 232 lb center, along with 13 points and 11 rebounds to Marshall's 7'4" 255 lb center. Hopefully Page can do his thing and score a bunch of points.
Player previews:
Starters
#30, 6'4" PG Dallin Hall - Spent 3 years at BYU as their starting PG, before losing his starting spot midway through last season so that NBA lottery pick Egor Demin could run the show. Hall is primarily a pass-first guy, though he can also score if needed, dropping 18 points against Marshall helped by 3-4 from deep. Not a great or aggressive defensive player.
#1, 6'5" CG Malik Thomas - A 5th-year player at his 3rd school, following 2 years at USC where he barely played and 2 years at San Francisco, where he developed into an all-WCC player. Last year he shot 39% from 3 against top-100 teams while being one of the best players in the country at drawing fouls, where he shot 85%. This year, he's found himself in foul trouble quite a bit, though it hasn't been a problem for the team. Thomas loves to get out in transition and is happy to shoot, but is also a solid passer himself. He has been very successful at either scoring or getting to the FT line off of an offensive rebound. Also not a great or aggressive defensive player.
#5, 6'7" Wing F Sam Lewis - Spent two years at Toledo as a deadeye sharpshooter, hitting 44% of his 3s last season. Not great so far this season in transition, but in the half-court, he loves to drive to the rim in an effort to draw fouls, but is also happy to sit at the 3-point line for a catch-and-shoot opportunity or to take an off-the-dribble 3. Will crash the offensive boards and has been very efficient in scoring off of rebounds. Rarely turns the ball over.
#28, 6'9" Wing F Thijs De Ridder - A jack-of-all trades, the first-year man from Brasschaat, Belgium will mix up midrange jumpers, drives to the rim, posting up, scoring in transition, and shooting 3s. He's scored 20+ points in 3 of their 4 games while averaging 6 rebounds and 2 assists per game. Not a great free throw shooter but draws a lot of fouls. Despite his size, he's not a great defensive rebounder or shot-blocker. Fouled out in their last game against Marshall.
#17, 7'0" C Johann Grünloh - Another first-year European, hailing from Loningen, Germany. Grünloh has feasted at the rim while denying his opponents in the same place so far this year. The dunkin' Deutsch man already has 6 in 4 games, while making 8-9 layups. He tries to shoot 3s as well, averaging 2 per game, but has only made 1 so far this year. He's done most of his damage coming out of the pick and roll, but has been less successful when trying to post up his opponent. He's an excellent rebounder and shot blocker, averaging 7.5 rebounds and 4.2(!) blocks per game. Not a great FT shooter either, just 50% so far this season.
Might hit reserves later before game time, might not!
The other day, I said
Digging deeper, for UVA on offense they are going to want to get out into transition whenever possible. So far this year nearly a quarter (23%) of their possessions have been in transition, however they haven't been particularly efficient. On defense, we are in the 95th percentile in not allowing transition plays (just 10% of possessions), but when we do allow them, the results are not great, so hopefully we are able to shut down this part of their game effectively.
If they can't get out in transition, they will look to drive to the rim (28%), though half of the time they do that they will kick it out for a 3-pointer which has been very effective for them. Defensively, we have been elite at shutting down both of these types of plays so far this year.
If they don't make the shot, they will all crash the offensive glass. They are currently #2 in the country in offensive rebound rate, and 14% of their possessions end with a shot following a rebound. This is my biggest concern, especially after DePaul destroyed us last game - 16% of DePaul possessions resulted in shots following an offensive rebound, and they scored 1.44 points/possession.
Lastly, if they decide not to drive in the halfcourt, they will either run backdoor cuts to the hoop, pick and roll passing to the big, or tossing it in for a post-up (roughly 6-7% for each). We have been good at defending the post-up and the backdoor cuts, but less good on the pick and roll.
As far as what we will try to do defensively to force them into bad shots, we will try to double a big man inside and force him to pass out for a 3, or we will try to make them take midrange shots.
Offensively, as many have noticed, our transition rate is up massively this season, also at 23% of possessions, though against DePaul we only had 14% of our possessions in transition. When we aren't in transition, UVA will want us to drive, though that has not been a big part of our offense so far this year. They will also want us to take midrange shots, which we will likely oblige.
We have been very diverse in our offensive sets so far this year, but one area that could be successful for us is taking 3s off of screens - UVA really doesn't allow many opportunities at all, but when they do they have been burned badly. The other area for us is also shots off of offensive rebounds. UVA gave up 16 points and 11 rebounds to NC Central's 6'9" 232 lb center, along with 13 points and 11 rebounds to Marshall's 7'4" 255 lb center. Hopefully Page can do his thing and score a bunch of points.
Player previews:
Starters
#30, 6'4" PG Dallin Hall - Spent 3 years at BYU as their starting PG, before losing his starting spot midway through last season so that NBA lottery pick Egor Demin could run the show. Hall is primarily a pass-first guy, though he can also score if needed, dropping 18 points against Marshall helped by 3-4 from deep. Not a great or aggressive defensive player.
#1, 6'5" CG Malik Thomas - A 5th-year player at his 3rd school, following 2 years at USC where he barely played and 2 years at San Francisco, where he developed into an all-WCC player. Last year he shot 39% from 3 against top-100 teams while being one of the best players in the country at drawing fouls, where he shot 85%. This year, he's found himself in foul trouble quite a bit, though it hasn't been a problem for the team. Thomas loves to get out in transition and is happy to shoot, but is also a solid passer himself. He has been very successful at either scoring or getting to the FT line off of an offensive rebound. Also not a great or aggressive defensive player.
#5, 6'7" Wing F Sam Lewis - Spent two years at Toledo as a deadeye sharpshooter, hitting 44% of his 3s last season. Not great so far this season in transition, but in the half-court, he loves to drive to the rim in an effort to draw fouls, but is also happy to sit at the 3-point line for a catch-and-shoot opportunity or to take an off-the-dribble 3. Will crash the offensive boards and has been very efficient in scoring off of rebounds. Rarely turns the ball over.
#28, 6'9" Wing F Thijs De Ridder - A jack-of-all trades, the first-year man from Brasschaat, Belgium will mix up midrange jumpers, drives to the rim, posting up, scoring in transition, and shooting 3s. He's scored 20+ points in 3 of their 4 games while averaging 6 rebounds and 2 assists per game. Not a great free throw shooter but draws a lot of fouls. Despite his size, he's not a great defensive rebounder or shot-blocker. Fouled out in their last game against Marshall.
#17, 7'0" C Johann Grünloh - Another first-year European, hailing from Loningen, Germany. Grünloh has feasted at the rim while denying his opponents in the same place so far this year. The dunkin' Deutsch man already has 6 in 4 games, while making 8-9 layups. He tries to shoot 3s as well, averaging 2 per game, but has only made 1 so far this year. He's done most of his damage coming out of the pick and roll, but has been less successful when trying to post up his opponent. He's an excellent rebounder and shot blocker, averaging 7.5 rebounds and 4.2(!) blocks per game. Not a great FT shooter either, just 50% so far this season.
Might hit reserves later before game time, might not!