Seems that's what they are saying after the blowout loss to Michigan. It is worth noting we were outscored 25-3 in the 2nd half at Michigan while OSU was outscored 28-3 in the 2nd half at home. I can't see Michigan outscoring PSU at Beaver Stadium like that. So maybe it is a quality victory.
Was the OSU win at PSU a quality victory that enhances their chances to make the final 4?
- Thread starter dcf4psu
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OSU's key data points are a) one loss, b) a loss to a top five team, c) subjective darling of the CFP committee. If USC loses to Utah, I think OSU is in by virtue of the 'settled law' that is no two loss team will be in the CFP unless there are not enough one loss teams to make a playoff.
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What happens if TCU loses to K State? The line on that one is only 2.5.
Good question, but most talking heads I've heard say TCU is likely in either way. To quote Mandel in The Athletic article, 'Unbeatens Georgia, Michigan, and TCU all could take a mulligan Saturday and still likely end up in the playoff.'
Exactly. Applies if TCU loses as well, given that the loss comes later. Or, a one loss OSU trumps a one loss TCU. Rose is still a nice consolation if TCU and USC both take care of business.
Personally speaking, TCU needs to win or they put too much risk on a game with huge brand bias. Can they get in with a loss this week? Maybe, but it's not a hand I'd like to play.
USC is in if they win, I assume. OSU and Bama are praying for 2 losses.
Bama? Yes, 2 loss Bama. If there ever was a team to get in with 2, it's the Saban brand. I don't like it, I don't agree with it.
If either USC or TCU lose, OSU is in for sure, not even close - and they should be, any arguments against would be, IMO, inane.
A more debatable question, IMO, would be whether OSU should be in regardless of what TCU/USC does.
If the goal is to actually place the "4 Best Teams" in the Final Four - which is, undoubtably, a process rife with subjectivity - OSU would have a VERY strong case over TCU, regardless of whether TCU finishes unbeaten or not (several programs could make the same "over TCU" argument, IMO... again, if the mission is to include the "4 Best"), and OSU could certainly put out a reasoned argument to be in over 1 loss USC.
TCU's chances of getting in with a loss are the same as Northwestern's chances of getting in.
USC and Riley are a big draw and they only have one loss by one point. They also have the likely Heisman winner. They're in if they win and should be IMO.
No! We are clearly mediocre team at best. OSU having us on their schedule clearly hurt their SOS. Would have been better off playing New Mexico State than us.
TIC!
TIC!
I strongly agree that college football would be better if the conference championship games went away. We don't need to see Michigan-Purdue, GA-LSU, Clemson-NC, USC-Utah, etc. The only purpose they serve is $$$, which is why they aren't going to go away.
We should get to see how good TCU really is if they beat KState. They will match up against UM as the 2/3 game if UM wins and UGA wins. At that point we will have a data point to compare between tOSU and TCU. My prediction is a UM vs UGA final.
According to many on this board, the Lions stink and their coaching is subpar. How can it possibly be a good win in that scenario?
Even the win over PSU required four turnovers (21 points off turnovers) for OSU to win.
To your point:
Prior to Conference Championship Games, about the only way for two teams to have a rematch was to play each other in a bowl (after having met int he regular season). The last 8 times that happened, TTBOMK, the team that lost in the regular season won the bowl game.
Kinda' weird.
But Conference Championship Games have been different.
Of the 29 rematches in Power Five CCGs, the regular season winner won 18.
The most common rematches occur in the PAC 12.
Of the 7 Pac12 rematches, the team that won the regular season game won 6 of 7 in the CCG
Stanford over UCLA
Stanford over Ariz State
Stanford over USC
USC over Stanford
Washington over Utah
Utah over Oregon
The one outlier was Oregon over Arizona (Arizona had won in regular season)
Rematches are a lot rarer in the Big Ten. Only happened three times:
OSU over Wisconsin - OSU won both
Wisconsin over MSU (MSU won in regular season)
Wisconsin over Nebraska (Nebraska had won in regular season)
In the Big 12, there have been 8 rematches - the regular season winner won 5 of them:
Oklahoma over Kansas State
Texas over Colorado
Oklahoma over Missouri
Oklahoma over TCU
Oklahoma over Baylor
The three where the regular season loser won:
Nebraska over Texas (Texas had won in regular season)
Oklahoma over Texas (Texas had won in regular season)
Baylor over Oklahoma State (Oklahoma State had won in regular season)
There have been 6 rematches in the SEC CCG. The winner sweeping 4 times:
Alabama over Florida
Florida over Auburn
LSU over Georgia
Auburn over South Carolina
And 2 where the regular season loser won the CCG:
LSU over Tennessee
Georgia over Auburn
In the ACC CCG, there have been 5 rematches. The regular season winner won twice - the regular season loser won three times:
GaTech over Clemson
Clemson over VaTech
Clemson over Notre Dame (Notre Dame won in regular season)
VaTech over Boston College, twice VT won the CCG after losing to BC in the regular season
Everyone has dumped Tennessee off the face of the Earth. They also have 2 losses but um, they beat Bama. Bama's dead or the system is corrupt (oh...wait).
I agree with the group that TCU plays with fire if they lose to K State on Saturday. However, the Pac 12 game is Friday night so should Utah win that one and essentially knock USC out, that would take a little of the pressure off of TCU. Should USC win Friday night, then TCU had better win because the committee will have zero problem dumping them out, especially after some of the comments the chairman has made throughout this whole dirty process.
I think that TCU has zero chance with a loss, however any other games play out. OSU would get in over them.
I think there is zero chance that TCU or USC lose. (I gave Michigan a 10% chance of beating OSU, so don’t bet the mortgage on anything non-mathematical that I say.)
Tennessee vs Bama at this point is brand bias. Timing of loss #2 hurts some, being weeks after Bama got #2. Losing Hooker is another stroke of bad luck. It definitely weighs in on the debate.
Definitely corrupt. We used to say Bama had to lose twice to be out. Now, we're possibly looking at 3. Must be nice.
FWIW:
The Boys in the Desert put the odds of BOTH USC and TCU winning at about 35-40% (ie, they feel it is more than likely that at least one of them will lose).
That would mean it is (slightly) better than 50-50 that OSU makes the Final Four, and better than 50-50 that PSU ends up in the Rose Bowl.
I wouldn't want to make a living betting college football games, but that is kinda' about where I would put the odds if I were to wager it. From what I have seen, USC just isn't "that good" (Caleb Williams IS that good, but the rest of the squad not so much). Nor is TCU.
Vegas has each of them as just about a FG favorite.
Of course, that means USC and TCU may just both go out and win by 30 points
Good info, good to know.FWIW:
The Boys in the Desert put the odds of BOTH USC and TCU winning at about 35-40% (ie, they feel it is more than likely that at least one of them will lose).
That would mean it is (slightly) better than 50-50 that OSU makes the Final Four, and better than 50-50 that PSU ends up in the Rose Bowl.
I wouldn't want to make a living betting college football games, but that is kinda' about where I would put the odds if I were to wager it. From what I have seen, USC just isn't "that good" (Caleb Williams IS that good, but the rest of the squad not so much). Nor is TCU.
Vegas has each of them as just about a FG favorite.
Of course, that means USC and TCU may just both go out and win by 30 points
What is probably going to happen is that at least one of USC and TCU loses, but Michigan loses to Purdue, and the Rose Bowl takes Purdue as the BIG "champion".FWIW:
The Boys in the Desert put the odds of BOTH USC and TCU winning at about 35-40% (ie, they feel it is more than likely that at least one of them will lose).
That would mean it is (slightly) better than 50-50 that OSU makes the Final Four, and better than 50-50 that PSU ends up in the Rose Bowl.
I wouldn't want to make a living betting college football games, but that is kinda' about where I would put the odds if I were to wager it. From what I have seen, USC just isn't "that good" (Caleb Williams IS that good, but the rest of the squad not so much). Nor is TCU.
Vegas has each of them as just about a FG favorite.
Of course, that means USC and TCU may just both go out and win by 30 points
Great, now our program is being complimented as the prettiest wh*re in Dodge City.
Dave, look at those two losses. Could and probably should have been wins. Of the current top four, only Georgia would be favored to beat Alabama at this point. And even that is questionable in my opinion.
Georgia stonewalled the same UT offense that put 52 on Bama. UT routed LSU. LSU played snap for snap with Bama. As did an average Ole Miss. Texas probably beats Bama if Ewers doesn't get hurt.
Bama is living off legacy THIS year.