What percentage chance
- Thread starter marshalfan
- Start date
I figure a little better than 50%.
UK doesn't rely on the three, they play unbelievable defense, and they hit foul shots. That's a brutal trio to deal with in March.
Kentucky also has four really good guards, two excellent point guards, and trees in the low post.
It's gonna take a "lights out from long range" kind of night from an opponent to take down this UK team.
GBB!!!
UK doesn't rely on the three, they play unbelievable defense, and they hit foul shots. That's a brutal trio to deal with in March.
Kentucky also has four really good guards, two excellent point guards, and trees in the low post.
It's gonna take a "lights out from long range" kind of night from an opponent to take down this UK team.
GBB!!!
My stats professor would kill me for this, but 90%...that is how good I personally feel about this team winning it all. The other 10% factors in bad luck in a close game, poor officiating in a close game, and the off-chance this team pulls a brain fart gameplan ala 2010 UK vs. WVU, but I do not see the latter happening.
As Erik said, UK is the one contender that can win EVERY game without relying on the 3, shoots well from the FT line, plays pretty darn good D, and can get a lot of easy looks at the basket down low. I said it yesterday, I'll post it again.
A team needs UK to mess up badly on AT LEAST 3 of the 4 following to win: 1. Shoot poorly from 3/jack up a lot of 3's. 2. Miss a ton of bunnies from 2 around the basket 3. Have a bad FT shooting night 4. Not play good D for long stretches. Now FL got 1, 2, and 4 on Friday for all of the game on 1 and 2, and the first 25-30 minutes on #4, and still ended up losing by 15.
As Erik said, UK is the one contender that can win EVERY game without relying on the 3, shoots well from the FT line, plays pretty darn good D, and can get a lot of easy looks at the basket down low. I said it yesterday, I'll post it again.
A team needs UK to mess up badly on AT LEAST 3 of the 4 following to win: 1. Shoot poorly from 3/jack up a lot of 3's. 2. Miss a ton of bunnies from 2 around the basket 3. Have a bad FT shooting night 4. Not play good D for long stretches. Now FL got 1, 2, and 4 on Friday for all of the game on 1 and 2, and the first 25-30 minutes on #4, and still ended up losing by 15.
10%
at best.
you have to factor in a lot of things. The chances of injuries or illness. The chances of a bad shooting game and we have had several of those this year already.
The odds that vegas will try to fix a game so we don't make them lose a ton of cash. I mean its better to spend 100 K than lose 700 K right?
So many things that can go wrong is why I never count on a title until that game is over and we're celebrating.
at best.
you have to factor in a lot of things. The chances of injuries or illness. The chances of a bad shooting game and we have had several of those this year already.
The odds that vegas will try to fix a game so we don't make them lose a ton of cash. I mean its better to spend 100 K than lose 700 K right?
So many things that can go wrong is why I never count on a title until that game is over and we're celebrating.
Like Vitale, I would take Kentucky over the field this year.
That puts them a bit above 50% in my view.
That puts them a bit above 50% in my view.
FL scored 49 points. And I'd argue it was more of 2 garbage 30 ft 3's and some timely home cooking FT shooting that allowed UGA to score 60+ on UK.
Let's see the brackets then talk. I don't think you can assign probability to something like this. If Kentucky brings the mindset to win it all in every game they play they will win every game and win the championship. If we come to play in every game the it's 100%
Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN · 5h 5 hours ago
ESPN Stats/Info:According to BPI, Kentucky has 92.8% chance of beating Arkansas today, 41.3% chance of going undefeated through NCAA Tourney
ESPN Stats/Info:According to BPI, Kentucky has 92.8% chance of beating Arkansas today, 41.3% chance of going undefeated through NCAA Tourney
50% chance. You have to remember, only half the time does the best team in the country win the tourny.
That's an incredibly negative take. Most statistical models are saying somewhere between 30-40 percent. It could shift a bit based on the makeup of the bracket.
For instance, our odds would be better if our 4 seed were Northern Iowa and our 2 seed were Gonzaga, as opposed to having a 4 seed of UL and a 2 seed of Wisconsin.
But the only thing that would place it at 10% would be the potential for cheating that you allude to. Do you really believe that strongly that we are about to be cheated?