Think there is a case to be made for different guys. Examining the possibilities:
Which returning player takes the biggest scoring leap next season?
- Thread starter BlueDevilStop
- Start date
Baker IMO. Williams just needs to continue his late season play from last year and Roach just needs to be a better pg
Baker is our sleeping giant and x factor. He doesn't even hit the rim in the scrimmages. He shoots like Matthew Hurt in practice. No reason he can't give us 2- 3 threes a game off the bench.
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Mark Williams is my selection. He averaged 7.1 points last year. He should increase by 9 to average 16 this year. Joey Baker averaged 2.9 points last season. He probably will increase by about 6 points this year
That’s a hell of a jump for Mark. I think it’s a bit unrealistic, especially for a guy who’s main offense should be from put backs. I don’t see many plays being run for him, but should also see a few lobs. 16 is still a ton. If he can be in that 13-14 range with 8-10 boards I’ll be more than happy. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he hits a slump at some point early. People won’t be caught off guard by him now due to his late season push. He has tape out there now on what he’s capable of.
My points predictions
Banchero 17
Wendell 11
Roach 10
Williams 13
AJ 8 (maybe more but lots of rust from time off)
Keels 8 (maybe more but shot looks iffy)
Baker 7 (if shot is falling)
Theo 4 (could be more if healthy)
Blakes 2
Bates Jones 2
That is 82 points per game
It seems like our scoring is never this balanced so I imagine some guys will average less and some more. (obvious I know)
Banchero 17
Wendell 11
Roach 10
Williams 13
AJ 8 (maybe more but lots of rust from time off)
Keels 8 (maybe more but shot looks iffy)
Baker 7 (if shot is falling)
Theo 4 (could be more if healthy)
Blakes 2
Bates Jones 2
That is 82 points per game
It seems like our scoring is never this balanced so I imagine some guys will average less and some more. (obvious I know)
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We're not far off in our projections. I probably should not disagree with two moderators. Other teams cannot stop Williams. He's 7 feet tall with speed and wide shoulders. It clicked for him last March. He'll have more 25 points games than 7 points games. He shot 67% from the field last year. He needs to shoot a lot more. The 8 to 10 rebounds is more questionable for me. Except for his 23 rebounds in the final game of the year, he didn't rebound particularly well
If teams pack it in on us, we will be taking more threes. Other than Baker(who has yet to do it in games) and Roach we do not look like a very good shooting team so far. Early I know. I would assume Keels' shot will look better as he gets more comfortable, but he may take a year. Honestly I thought we looked better in last year's scrimmages(certainly deeper), but that just indicates that you just can't tell. AJ and Keels do look good driving the ball, but you have to hit outside shots as well. Banchero is a good shooter, but you never know with Moore.
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2 reasons 16 might not be too high a number for Mark. First, that is basically what he scored last year down the stretch. And, with not a whole lot of PG play supporting him. The only guy who really helped Mark was Hurt with his ability to stretch the floor and draw attention from the D. Second, Mark can get 16 a game with very little O run for him and minimal shots taken. His scoring is likely to come from lobs, offensive put backs, and dunks off of drive and dishes. He should have a very high FG%, so he won't need to take a whole lot of shots.
I do think he may be less of a focus on offense because of the upgrade in talent around him. But, that upgrade in talent will also draw the defense away from him and should be better able to create scoring opportunities for him.
I do think he may be less of a focus on offense because of the upgrade in talent around him. But, that upgrade in talent will also draw the defense away from him and should be better able to create scoring opportunities for him.
Duke's season relies upon Baker's confidence. He obviously has a beautiful stroke in pickup games. He doesn't have to make 2 of 5 every game. 2 of 6 would be sensational for making the rest of the offense flow. The longer 3 point shot seems too difficult for 95% of freshmen
You may be right about AJ but I hope he's considerably more productive than that.
But yeah, the time off... who knows...
Disagree. Duke's season probably relies on a lot of things that come before Joey Baker and his confidence, such as: Banchero being a star who carries the scoring load (I predict 19 or 20 ppg), point guard play, Mark taking the next step, AJ being a high level two way player, and shooting. That last one is where Baker factors in, but it the shooting could also come from Keels, AJ, Paolo, and improvement from Roach and Moore.
Every preseason we think we will shoot good from 3, and every year we don't. At least recently. Maybe this will be the year.
Joey shooting with confidence and consistency like a senior should can make up for a lot of ifs and buts was his point. (I think)
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Tim, you are absolutely right regarding the in game Joey we have seen to date. But, if in game Joey starts to perform like practice Joey, he becomes a game and season changer. That kind of sniping from 3 would be a huge pressure release for the whole team. Would also give us a 8 man rotation with 1-8 being legitimate ACC starter material.
If you watch some of Blakes' highlights, the deep 3 is not a problem. He is definitely in the 5%.
No doubt he can be a big help, I just can't see Joey being the one thing/player that makes or breaks our season. Like I said, I think Paolo and point guard play are the biggest factors, but that doesn't mean that Joey couldn't or won't be an enormous help if he's able to consistently stretch the floor. I am hopeful that he takes that step.
He's not going to make or break the season, but we have huuuuuuuge questions about our outside shooting and Joey could help enormously with that. In the scrimmages him and Banchero are easily our best shooters. Roach looked good as well which is encouraging.
Whether he does or doesn’t, Baker should be able to hit at least two 3’s a game without breaking a sweat. As a fan, that’s frustrating. He wasn’t the 350th ranked kid coming out of high school.
Maybe he has a case of what I had. Best shooter on the team in practice- to one of the worst in games…ughhh I choked 
Mannn so much of shooting is just all in your head…trust me. Ida had my confidence now then wooooo I might gotta offer from….GT?
I think all four of our main returning guys take leaps in all facets of the game. But, I'm trying to be more positive about things of late. If Roach makes the jump we all hope he'll make this team is even more dangerous.
I think that all of the starters will average an extra half or full point because there are only ten scholarship players on the squad. Probably translates to an extra two minutes per man