Texas is - no doubt - down in recent years, compared to their historical norms (and certainly down compared to the level of investment in the program)
That said:
Since after their MNC in 2005:
- Texas ranks 20th among power 5 schools in winning percentage (certainly not what one - if they were a Texas fan - would want, but not bottom of the barrel by any stretch). For context, PSU ranks 13th. Those schools right at Texas's level over that time?, Michigan 17th, TAMU 23rd.
- Texas played for a MNC in 2009 (ie, more recently than PSU, and many others)
- In those 17 years since 2005, Texas has been to 13 bowls and been ranked in the final polls 9 times (not "Texas Standard", for sure - but hardly Rutgers either)
Charlie Strong's 3-year tenure was an unmitigated crapfest. No doubt. And they sent him packing quickly.
Herman was there for four years - and they played in, and won, bowl games every year of his tenure (Sugar Bowl, which is always nice, 2 Alamos and a Texas). But Herman was gone after year 4 (2020)
Sarkisian is 2 years in.
Now, the landscape is going to change DRASTICALLY for Texas (and Oklahoma). It will be interesting to see what happens.
I don't think anyone can really project with any confidence. SEC brings in a ton of money - but money (and spending it

) was never the thing holding Texas back. Competition will be much upgraded, no doubt. Even in bad times, Texas recruited with the Big Boys - will the SEC move help or hinder? Who knows. But they - and their fans - certainly "care", and certainly support the program (all sports at UT), and Texas (the state) remains one of the mother lodes for football talent. Interesting times.