Why is everyone freaking out

[EvanstonCat]

We lost by one in the closing seconds. It wasn't like we got humiliated and crushed. And Pitt ain't Hartford or Merrimack. Sure, we never should have lost, and it was a disaster of a finish.

But, we were beating the crap out of Pitt for a while. We have the talent and the capacity to win. It looks a lot better than last year. We just gotta get over the hump. Don't freeze up and learn to close. We aren't as far away as people think.

 

[MrScoops]

People seem to be freaking out for two reasons:

1) While Pitt isn't Hartford or Merrimack, they are expected to be near the very bottom of the ACC. The fact that it was this competitive and ultimately turned into a loss @ home does not bode well for our chances to leave the cellar of the B1G.

2) This game was emblematic of the chocking that the program under Collins has consistently achieved in both astounding frequency and magnitude. People are upset that we're still tossing these games away.

 

[clarificationcat]

We lost by one in the closing seconds. It wasn't like we got humiliated and crushed. And Pitt ain't Hartford or Merrimack. Sure, we never should have lost, and it was a disaster of a finish.

But, we were beating the crap out of Pitt for a while. We have the talent and the capacity to win. It looks a lot better than last year. We just gotta get over the hump. Don't freeze up and learn to close. We aren't as far away as people think.

Agreed. Even for this board I feel like this is way over the top. Pitt may not be a good team but they are not a bad team either. They beat North Carolina twice last year and beat Florida State once. They lost to Louisville in overtime. It was the first true test of the year and the team played poorly. But I am not ready to write the season off or individual players. We actually made a fair amount of clutch shots down the stretch to keep Pitt from taking the lead. And as poorly as we shot, we scored 70 points. Even good players have bad games, especially in college. Bouie had a very bad last minute. He's a sophomore that missed a fair amount of games last year and is playing a new role this year. Kopp did not shoot well and was not a factor offensively. I think he has improved and will have some good games against very good teams. Beran needs to be more of a factor throughout the game but he looks stronger and more confident this year. Audige needs to learn what a good shot is within the framework of the offense and work harder at getting to the rim. He played in his first game against a decent team in over two years. Let's see if he can adjust his game as the season progresses. Nance needs to work harder to get garbage buckets. He's got to start getting some offensive rebounds and get baskets running the floor. He's needs to consistently be a 10-point a game guy for us. And I agree that we need to be more physical overall and win more battles under the boards. Let's give the season 10 games or so before we reach any conclusions.

 

[GatoLouco]

I agree with the exaggerations of how bad we are. We have talented kids.

None of that invalidates one more very serious sign CC can't coach.

 

[NUCat320]

Because of this:

...we were beating the crap out of Pitt
...We have the talent ... We just gotta get over the hump. ... learn to close.

Three years (ten years?) and the mantra gets old. This one was galling because it was 39 minutes and 54 seconds of lead. Usually it’s been closer to 3 minutes left when they blow it, and they’ve only been leading for 15 or 20.

At some point, the pattern of exceptions is simply reality.

Lucky for me, I saw it coming and only tuned in for the last two minutes, and only because my wife fell asleep watching the Poison episode of Schitt’s Creek. Nothin’ but a good time, indeed.

 

[ThatadultfromHolland]

I agree with the exaggerations of how bad we are. We have talented kids.

None of that invalidates one more very serious sign CC can't coach.

Ya he forgot how to coach after the tournament season

 

[CappyNU]

And as poorly as we shot, we scored 70 points.

...because we had 77 possessions. Our offensive efficiency in this game would've been our 19th-best performance last season. Not really something to hang our hat on. We only had one game last year with more than 77 possessions, our win at Nebraska (78). This is the equivalent of when we used to show the stat that we were top-3 in points allowed during the Carmody years because we played 50 possessions per game.

 

[clarificationcat]

...because we had 77 possessions. Our offensive efficiency in this game would've been our 19th-best performance last season. Not really something to hang our hat on. We only had one game last year with more than 77 possessions, our win at Nebraska (78). This is the equivalent of when we used to show the stat that we were top-3 in points allowed during the Carmody years because we played 50 possessions per game.

Understood. Like I said, we shot very poorly. I hope the coaches are able to teach the players what a good shot is within the framework of the offense.

 

[JournCat]

Ya he forgot how to coach after the tournament season

I flew to Salt Lake City and it was one of the best experiences of my life. But how long are we gonna hang onto that?

 

[NUCat320]

I flew to Salt Lake City and it was one of the best experiences of my life. But how long are we gonna hang onto that?

For reference, Bryce Drew was fired at Vandy for going 21-43 over the next two years. CCC was 28-36 those years.

 

[ThatadultfromHolland]

I flew to Salt Lake City and it was one of the best experiences of my life. But how long are we gonna hang onto that?

Is 3 years too long? Oh I’m sorry he’s a first time head coach. How long did it take fitz to get a to a b1G championship? R-E-L-A-X. The increased depth and athletes speaks for itself. If next season we see the same issues then we can start talking. We return everyone next year.

 

[HawkCat]

But, we were beating the crap out of Pitt for a while.

I disagree. We played less terrible than Pitt for a while. Given how Pitt was playing, we should have led by 25 in the first half.

 

[TheC]

Agreed. Even for this board I feel like this is way over the top. Pitt may not be a good team but they are not a bad team either. They beat North Carolina twice last year and beat Florida State once. They lost to Louisville in overtime. It was the first true test of the year and the team played poorly. But I am not ready to write the season off or individual players. We actually made a fair amount of clutch shots down the stretch to keep Pitt from taking the lead. And as poorly as we shot, we scored 70 points. Even good players have bad games, especially in college. Bouie had a very bad last minute. He's a sophomore that missed a fair amount of games last year and is playing a new role this year. Kopp did not shoot well and was not a factor offensively. I think he has improved and will have some good games against very good teams. Beran needs to be more of a factor throughout the game but he looks stronger and more confident this year. Audige needs to learn what a good shot is within the framework of the offense and work harder at getting to the rim. He played in his first game against a decent team in over two years. Let's see if he can adjust his game as the season progresses. Nance needs to work harder to get garbage buckets. He's got to start getting some offensive rebounds and get baskets running the floor. He's needs to consistently be a 10-point a game guy for us. And I agree that we need to be more physical overall and win more battles under the boards. Let's give the season 10 games or so before we reach any conclusions.

It's not just that they lost that is driving people crazy. It's how they lost. It's becoming a broken record.
- Physically dominated
- Offense with no apparent rhyme or reason
- Playing scared down the stretch

Add that to the fact that none of our players appear to have gotten that much better. In today's game, you can't wait for players to be seniors before they figure it out. Our second and third year players have the same flaws they've always had.

 

[clarificationcat]

It's not just that they lost that is driving people crazy. It's how they lost. It's becoming a broken record.
- Physically dominated
- Offense with no apparent rhyme or reason
- Playing scared down the stretch

Add that to the fact that none of our players appear to have gotten that much better. In today's game, you can't wait for players to be seniors before they figure it out. Our second and third year players have the same flaws they've always had.

My point is that it's one game. Even really good college teams have bad games. You cannot conclude that our players have not gotten much better from one game. The offense has a rhyme and reason. Let's see how it does over the next 10 games. And we played scared (or really Bouie played poorly) in the last minute (which is better than last year when we choked away big leads in the last 10 minutes of games). The offensive performance in the minutes before that was much better. Audige, Kopp, Young and Bouie all made plays to keep the lead.

 

[GatoLouco]

Ya he forgot how to coach after the tournament season

I guess the same way Tom Crean forgot how to coach after making it to the final four.

Lot in common there, both recruit well.

 

[TheC]

My point is that it's one game. Even really good college teams have bad games. You cannot conclude that our players have not gotten much better from one game. The offense has a rhyme and reason. Let's see how it does over the next 10 games. And we played scared (or really Bouie played poorly) in the last minute (which is better than last year when we choked away big leads in the last 10 minutes of games). The offensive performance in the minutes before that was much better. Audige, Kopp, Young and Bouie all made plays to keep the lead.

You're right. It was one game. But it looked eerily familiar. Maybe things will look different going forward. We'll have to see when the BIG games start. I'm just not very optimistic.

 

[Styre]

Is 3 years too long? Oh I’m sorry he’s a first time head coach. How long did it take fitz to get a to a b1G championship? R-E-L-A-X.

In Fitz's first 7 seasons, he finished .500 or better 6 times, made the postseason 5 times, and ended his 7th season ranked #17 in the country. And he hadn't spent over a decade as the equivalent of Nick Saban's top assistant prior to that.

 

[Figrating]

The fans are tired of watching this team fail to close. Looks like the talent is there, but they often play poorly at the end of games. Looks like a coaching problem.

Also it looked like NU's shooting got worse and worse as the game continued.

Where's the sports shrink?

 

[willycat]

It's not just that they lost that is driving people crazy. It's how they lost. It's becoming a broken record.
- Physically dominated
- Offense with no apparent rhyme or reason
- Playing scared down the stretch

Add that to the fact that none of our players appear to have gotten that much better. In today's game, you can't wait for players to be seniors before they figure it out. Our second and third year players have the same flaws they've always had.

Guess it's on the players, then.

 

[CappyNU]

Hey, I found something about the game that isn't Coach Collins' fault!

1H 19:33 FOUL BY BERAN
1H 10:40 FOUL BY BERAN
2H 19:01 FOUL BY BERAN
2H 8:48 FOUL BY BERAN

1H 12:07 FOUL BY GAINES
1H 8:34 FOUL BY GAINES
1H 2:33 FOUL BY GAINES
2H 17:02 FOUL BY GAINES
2H 7:19 FOUL BY GAINES

After looking over the play by play data far more than anyone should, the fact that both of these players got into serious foul trouble very early on threw off the game plan and resulted in Ryan Young playing far more minutes than he would've otherwise seen.

Our starting lineup for the game of Buie-Audige-Kopp-Beran-Nance outscored Pitt 13-3 for the game (7-1 1H, 6-2 2H), but only played a total of 7:28 due to foul trouble of Beran. Gaines was the first sub off the bench in both halves, which resulted in an immediate drop in offensive productivity but kept the defensive intensity high. That lineup played to a draw at 6-6 (2-0 1H, 4-6 2H) and played 5:50.

Because of Beran's and Gaines' foul trouble, Collins had to play Young, who while helping us out on offense especially in the second half, got abused defensively. Young played 9:25 in the first half and was only +1 while we led by 11. The second half was just an unmitigated disaster defensively with Young on the floor, as he went -14 in a half we lost by 12 while only playing 13:44.

Long story short, you can't have players picking up multiple fouls in the first minute of a half, and you can't have your veteran captain who is your best defender picking up 3 fouls in a half, then compounding that with a 4th foul 2 minutes after coming into the game in the 2nd half. Need to have a better basketball IQ than what they showed.

 

[GatoLouco]

Here's a fun stat someone smarter than me looked up last year: our +/- leader was Greer

 

[macarthur31]

Hey, I found something about the game that isn't Coach Collins' fault!

1H 19:33 FOUL BY BERAN
1H 10:40 FOUL BY BERAN
2H 19:01 FOUL BY BERAN
2H 8:48 FOUL BY BERAN

1H 12:07 FOUL BY GAINES
1H 8:34 FOUL BY GAINES
1H 2:33 FOUL BY GAINES
2H 17:02 FOUL BY GAINES
2H 7:19 FOUL BY GAINES

After looking over the play by play data far more than anyone should, the fact that both of these players got into serious foul trouble very early on threw off the game plan and resulted in Ryan Young playing far more minutes than he would've otherwise seen.

Our starting lineup for the game of Buie-Audige-Kopp-Beran-Nance outscored Pitt 13-3 for the game (7-1 1H, 6-2 2H), but only played a total of 7:28 due to foul trouble of Beran. Gaines was the first sub off the bench in both halves, which resulted in an immediate drop in offensive productivity but kept the defensive intensity high. That lineup played to a draw at 6-6 (2-0 1H, 4-6 2H) and played 5:50.

Because of Beran's and Gaines' foul trouble, Collins had to play Young, who while helping us out on offense especially in the second half, got abused defensively. Young played 9:25 in the first half and was only +1 while we led by 11. The second half was just an unmitigated disaster defensively with Young on the floor, as he went -14 in a half we lost by 12 while only playing 13:44.

Long story short, you can't have players picking up multiple fouls in the first minute of a half, and you can't have your veteran captain who is your best defender picking up 3 fouls in a half, then compounding that with a 4th foul 2 minutes after coming into the game in the 2nd half. Need to have a better basketball IQ than what they showed.

This is a good pickup -

At 6'6", 200, Champagnie is pretty undersized for a 4, but he was pound for pound hella tough that night as he grabbed 20 boards to set his collegiate personal best. If Beran wasn't going to contain him, then you should be able to count on your senior, Anthony Gaines - while dropping two inches to him at 6'4, should still be able to bang with him given he's 210. Oh yeah, and AG's plus skill is defending. Agreed that this was a key matchup that the 'Cats lost, and certainly avoidable.

 

[CappyNU]

Here's a fun stat someone smarter than me looked up last year: our +/- leader was Greer

This is true, yes, at -13 he did lead the team in +/- during conference play, but he only averaged 8 minutes per game, so it's fair to ask if that would've remained so with an increase in minutes. I've tracked +/- against minutes played for years to see who's over or underperforming based on their minutes. Last year, Nance was -57, but averaged 24 minutes per game and based on our results should have been -112, for an "overperformance" of +55. Young was 2nd in overperformance at -88, 25 mpg, should've been -117, +29. Buie 3rd at -90, 28mpg, should've been -111, +21.

 

[NJCat]

Here's a fun stat someone smarter than me looked up last year: our +/- leader was Greer

Here's another: Greer outscored Nance against Pitt.

 

[ThatadultfromHolland]

In Fitz's first 7 seasons, he finished .500 or better 6 times, made the postseason 5 times, and ended his 7th season ranked #17 in the country. And he hadn't spent over a decade as the equivalent of Nick Saban's top assistant prior to that.

Disclaimer I am in no way saying Collins is better than fitz in this argument. Or trying to take away from what fitz did. He is imo the best guy to lead our fb program.

Post season in basketball and football are 2 completely different things. Fitz took over a program that at least had some recent history of being great as well. When has NU BB ever won the B1G?

First 7 years
1 tournament appearance (never happened before)
2 seasons above .500
1 big ten season above .500 (last season that happens was 1968)
Has the highest big ten winning percentage of any coach since 1970
Has the highest winning percentage of any coach since 1970

Hate all you want but he’s done things no coach has been able to do at northwestern in 50 years.

 

[Styre]

Post season in basketball and football are 2 completely different things. Fitz took over a program that at least had some recent history of being great as well. When has NU BB ever won the B1G?

I mean, they may be different things, but Collins took over a program that had finished over .500 and made the postseason in 4 of the previous 5 years, so it clearly wasn't impossible.

And before you say it, yes, obviously the one NCAA appearance was more important than all 4 NITs put together. You seem to think that I'm expecting Chris Collins to have this team at the top of the Big Ten. I'm not. That would be a ridiculous standard. I'd just like him to put consistently competitive teams on the court. Is that too much to ask?

First 7 years
1 tournament appearance (never happened before)
2 seasons above .500
1 big ten season above .500 (last season that happens was 1968)
Has the highest big ten winning percentage of any coach since 1970
Has the highest winning percentage of any coach since 1970

Hate all you want but he’s done things no coach has been able to do at northwestern in 50 years.

I'm not saying he hasn't! But if we're just going to shrug and say that winning 33% of our conference games is some sort of accomplishment, what's the point of even trying?

 

[peatymeanis]

Guess it's on the players, then.

Isn't the most important part of the head coach's job to recruit good players? People here keep saying that Collins is a good recruiter. Where's the evidence of that? What he seems to be good at is recruiting players that were way overhyped.

 

[clarificationcat]

Isn't the most important part of the head coach's job to recruit good players? People here keep saying that Collins is a good recruiter. Where's the evidence of that? What he seems to be good at is recruiting players that were way overhyped.

Absolutely. Folks keep knocking his x's and o's abilities. I think he knows basketball as well or better than the vast majority of college coaches. And what he doesn't know, Brian James does. But he spent most of his career recruiting and developing the best players in the country. I question whether he is good at identifying, evaluating and developing guys outside of the top 75 or so players, particularly at the lead guard spot. We have been lacking a good lead guard since McIntosh. Ash and Brown were way to one dimensional and neither was a good playmaker. And we had to pass on the kid from Missouri, which was not Collins' fault. I don't know if recruits were way overhyped. We haven't had that many 4-star type recruits under Collins. Law was a very good B1G player. Falzon came in limited athletically and left even more so after the injuries. Rap was hurt the whole time he was here. Nance has certainly not met everyone's expectations. Beran looks like he has a fairly bright future. Kopp is a pretty good B1G player. The rest of the recruits were generally regarded as 3-star recruits. Next year's class looks very good (I think at least 2 of the 3 guys will be meaningful contributors by the time they are done) and we will finally have 13 scholarship players, with at least 9 or 10 of them being rotation type guys. Still no true star, though. Something Carmody was able to do.

 

[peatymeanis]

Absolutely. Folks keep knocking his x's and o's abilities. I think he knows basketball as well or better than the vast majority of college coaches. And what he doesn't know, Brian James does. But he spent most of his career recruiting and developing the best players in the country. I question whether he is good at identifying, evaluating and developing guys outside of the top 75 or so players, particularly at the lead guard spot. We have been lacking a good lead guard since McIntosh. Ash and Brown were way to one dimensional and neither was a good playmaker. And we had to pass on the kid from Missouri, which was not Collins' fault. I don't know if recruits were way overhyped. We haven't had that many 4-star type recruits under Collins. Law was a very good B1G player. Falzon came in limited athletically and left even more so after the injuries. Rap was hurt the whole time he was here. Nance has certainly not met everyone's expectations. Beran looks like he has a fairly bright future. Kopp is a pretty good B1G player. The rest of the recruits were generally regarded as 3-star recruits. Next year's class looks very good (I think at least 2 of the 3 guys will be meaningful contributors by the time they are done) and we will finally have 13 scholarship players, with at least 9 or 10 of them being rotation type guys. Still no true star, though. Something Carmody was able to do.

The Nance class was supposed to be really good too. We won’t know until we see them on the court. Carmody had many players that were clear future all conference level quality from their first game in a NU jersey. Collins hasn’t had a single player of that level since his first class.

 

[NUCat320]

Isn't the most important part of the head coach's job to recruit good players? People here keep saying that Collins is a good recruiter. Where's the evidence of that? What he seems to be good at is recruiting players that were way overhyped.

There are a lot of people who believe that four-star Barret Benson was a great get.

 

[clarificationcat]

The Nance class was supposed to be really good too. We won’t know until we see them on the court. Carmody had many players that were clear future all conference level quality from their first game in a NU jersey. Collins hasn’t had a single player of that level since his first class.

The Nance class can still be good. Nance, Kopp, Young and Greer. Let's see how the rest of the year goes. If all of Collins' recruiting was similar to the Nance class, we would be in pretty good shape. The 2016 and 2017 classes really set the program back (Rap, Benson, I. Brown and Gaines). One player in two recruiting classes who made significant contributions and he's limited offensively. Throw in Falzon getting hurt from the class before that (and Ash being a role player at best) and that's 2 starters in 3 recruiting classes (Pardon and Gaines). It's tough for any program to overcome that. Things have gotten better. Buie, Beran and Berry should be solid B1G players. Jones was a miss and Nicholson is to be determined. Combine them with next year's class and I think you have a solid nucleus.

 

[peatymeanis]

The Nance class can still be good.

Sorry, that argument doesn’t fly. Those guys are juniors, my friend. Kopp is about an average conference level starter. The other three are marginal contributors at best to a winning team. That they are getting significant minutes currently speaks to the overall lack of talent on the team. We need productive underclassmen to have a winning program.

We only get 4 years max with these players. If our best recruits are only productive for 1/4 of the time they are here, that is a failure.

 

[clarificationcat]

Sorry, that argument doesn’t fly. Those guys are juniors, my friend. Kopp is about an average conference level starter. The other three are marginal contributors at best to a winning team. That they are getting significant minutes currently speaks to the overall lack of talent on the team. We need productive underclassmen to have a winning program.

We only get 4 years max with these players. If our best recruits are only productive for 1/4 of the time they are here, that is a failure.

We are 3 games into their junior year and as far as I know we are just exchanging posts on this board. I have enough friends.

Let's see how this year goes. If they are productive for 2/4 of the time they are here, that's fine and that's how it works at a lot of programs.

 

[peatymeanis]

I have enough friends.

whatever you say, champ

 

[ThatadultfromHolland]

I don’t know how talent or depth is a even a question (relative to NU standards). We had the more athletic team than pitt. Now production is a whole other ball game. It’s pretty clear there’s some talent on this team and some guys with high potential. If they gel and live up to it Collins keeps working. If they crash and burn like against Pitt he’s gone in 2-3 years my guess. I’m on the train of thought that Collins and co. can turn it around. They’re good enough to and Collins has really raised the floor for this team athletically over his tenure.

 

[peatymeanis]

I don’t know how talent or depth is a even a question (relative to NU standards). We had the more athletic team than pitt. Now production is a whole other ball game. It’s pretty clear there’s some talent on this team and some guys with high potential. If they gel and live up to it Collins keeps working. If they crash and burn like against Pitt he’s gone in 2-3 years my guess. I’m on the train of thought that Collins and co. can turn it around. They’re good enough to and Collins has really raised the floor for this team athletically over his tenure.

The more athletic team doesn’t get pounded on the boards. Athleticism is also not the same as basketball talent. I’m sure Collins recruits could do better than Carmody’s recruits on average in a decathlon. That doesn’t matter though, because they’re on scholarship to win basketball games.

 

[ThatadultfromHolland]

The more athletic team doesn’t get pounded on the boards. Athleticism is also not the same as basketball talent. I’m sure Collins recruits could do better than Carmody’s recruits on average in a decathlon. That doesn’t matter though, because they’re on scholarship to win basketball games.

Rebounding isn’t all athleticism my guy. NU wasn’t boxing and wasn’t crashing the boards. NU was the better team. Just choked and lacked discipline. Kopp is the best pure shooter I’ve seen at NU if you wanna talk basketball talent. If we are going throughout Collins tenure pardon was a beast down low offensively and defensively. Buie has shown the ability to create his own shot which you can’t say about most NU players in recent memory. There’s basketball talent there. It’s clear.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Collins initial recruits for pretty good. If we are going to point out the 4 star disappointments, Benson, Falzon, Rap, shouldn’t we acknowledge the guys ranked 250+ that were major contributors like Pardon, Lindsey and Buie?

 

[ThatadultfromHolland]

Collins initial recruits for pretty good. If we are going to point out the 4 star disappointments, Benson, Falzon, Rap, shouldn’t we acknowledge the guys ranked 250+ that were major contributors like Pardon, Lindsey and Buie?

No we aren’t allowed to point out positives after a loss.

 

[hdhntr1]

We lost by one in the closing seconds. It wasn't like we got humiliated and crushed. And Pitt ain't Hartford or Merrimack. Sure, we never should have lost, and it was a disaster of a finish.

But, we were beating the crap out of Pitt for a while. We have the talent and the capacity to win. It looks a lot better than last year. We just gotta get over the hump. Don't freeze up and learn to close. We aren't as far away as people think.

Could be COVID effect. I mean by the time we were supposed to play them we would have had about 8-10 games in. We are playing a lot of new guys and they are just adjusting to each other And I believe that they were likely not able to meet and interact anywhere close to normal.