There is an inaccuracy running through this thread I haven't seen anyone correct. The first time Belichick opted not to kick the FG on 4th down was not with 4 something on the clock or under 5 minutes as has been stated a few times. It was with 6:03 on the clock. 6 minutes left down 8 with all your timeouts left and the two minute warning also...have to kick the FG there, especially considering the Broncos only had three points in the second half and Pats D was playing well in that half. If it was a shootout game where they weren't able to stop the Broncos or if Belichick didn't have any timeouts I could understand going for it, but not under the conditions I mentioned.
I also don't understand why Belichick went against his norm of deferring to the second half. His offensive line has been banged up all year, he lost his running game after his top two backs went down (Brady had a phenomenal year considering all those injuries)...so with an offense that struggled down the stretch, I don't understand why they won the toss and took the ball...on the road against a very tough defense. But it wasn't a good year for Bill, same guy that didn't take the ball when he won the toss in overtime a few weeks back. Great coaches like great players sometimes have a bad game or a bad year, Belichick had a rough last few weeks.
Pats ultimately didn't deserve it, win one of the final two games of the season and that Denver game would have been at New England, even in his prime Peyton was awful in bad conditions. He is a dome/fair weather QB, Pats win by 10 or more at home. But Pats weren't beating Carolina with no running game and that OL...Pats didn't muster 50 yards rushing in either playoff game. Keep hearing what an amazing job Wade Phillips did, but the job of DC is a lot easier when you know every down is a passing down for your opponent and even if the Pats decide to run it isn't getting much. Carolina will have to play bad for Denver to beat them. A healthy Pats vs Carolina would have been a great game. But Peyton at this point in his career is a manage the game QB, that isn't going to cut it unless the Broncos D has an amazing game.