Exactly! Which was why I would think it’s Nagao. But still have to prove it on the mat. He’s ready to go. No matter who it is, they will be ready from training with each other and Ono.
Willie's Crystal Ball/Weight-by-weight Preview for '25-'26
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
Given those seeding predictions by Flo (which are pre-season and my guess end up being wildly different by season end when it counts) another way of looking at it is that there is a 6.2% chance all 8 AA.I agree that none of them are a reach, but by the same token none of them are a lock.
Yes, you have two near locks with Taylor and Ferrari, but you also have Lamer with some work to do to get to be a 50/50 proposition.
And it isn't like he is saying there are ten guys who can do it, but only eight will. As it stands only eight have a reasonable shot and predicting all eight will do it is a reach.
That said almost all predictions are too rosy, especially when built from the bottom up. That is just the nature of it. You can always talk yourself into best case scenarios. And it is just really hard to pick a specific wrestler and say he is the guy who will fail. Makes you look like a jerk.
Do you treat each weight class as an independent variable? Is so the difference between our answers is probably the rounding of each weight class and their additive affect
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Good point I did the quick multiple the independent variables method as I don't have the data... looks like it is a combo of the 2. Obviously yours is more accurate.... but 6.2% or 6.35% means the same. Very, very unlikely if the rankings hold that they get 8 AA.
These percentages are confusing. This is much clearer.
You are not the first person to tell me my stats smell like a turd covered in burnt hair, but all the others are on Iowa's board.
Not to get too deep in the weeds reading the tea leaves at 157, but I was perusing the entires for Bill Farrell last night and saw that Kasak is entered at 70kg (Melvin Miller entered at 70 kgs as well and going 157 at Clarion). I understand it is not definitive, but it is at least indicative of a decision that has already been made. Almost zero other current collegiate starters (Chittum?) are registered, and I highly doubt that Cael is sending his starting 57 to wrestle a senior freestyle open the week before the OU home opener. It always made more sense to take advantage of Kasak’s RS while Duke can still make 157 and then have Duke sit in 26/27 while Mesenbrink wins his 3rd straight title at 165. It seems that the coaching staff might agree with that logic.
And Ono wrestling freestyle in Dec in Japan means he's gonna RS for now. If both 141s got hurt maybe he would go 2nd semester but I don't see that happening
Sigh... guess that means mine is the used diaper filled with Indian food... wanna trade?You are not the first person to tell me my stats smell like a turd covered in burnt hair, but all the others are on Iowa's board.