WIN Magazine NCAA Team Projections

[InTheCircle]

WIN’s TPI projects where programs could finish at the 2026 NCAA Division I Championships.

Based on WIN’s current individual rankings per weight class: 20 for 1st, 16 for 2nd, 13.5 for 3rd, 12.5 for 4th, 10 for 5th, 9 for 6th, 6.5 for 7th and 5.5 for 8th. Wrestlers ranked 9-12 earn two points each, followed by one and a half points for wrestlers ranked 13-16 and one point for those ranked 17-20. Bonus points are not projected just placement and advancement points

1. Penn State 152
2. Oklahoma State 88
3. Iowa State 87.5
4. Ohio State 86.5
5. Nebraska 84
6. North Carolina State 58
7. Iowa 57.5
8. Cornell 52
9. Virginia Tech 39.5
10. Lehigh 34.5

 

[Scrubby]

Yikes.

 

[GLC1969]

2-5 look fun.

 

[Sir Pin Alot]

Iowa will pick up bonus in the early rounds to lift them up but yeah, its been quite a while since the program's floor (based on rankings) has been this low entering nationals. Curious if WrestlingKnowNothing has stats on that. You'd be hard pressed to find one lower in recent memory.

 

[heldyhawk606]

We aren't the only ones that can pick up bonus points.. and that VT predication looks rather low for how well some of their guys are wrestling. I honestly thought 6th was the worst we could do, dang I was wrong

 

[JoeBagobagels]

WIN’s TPI projects where programs could finish at the 2026 NCAA Division I Championships.

Based on WIN’s current individual rankings per weight class: 20 for 1st, 16 for 2nd, 13.5 for 3rd, 12.5 for 4th, 10 for 5th, 9 for 6th, 6.5 for 7th and 5.5 for 8th. Wrestlers ranked 9-12 earn two points each, followed by one and a half points for wrestlers ranked 13-16 and one point for those ranked 17-20. Bonus points are not projected just placement and advancement points

1. Penn State 152
2. Oklahoma State 88
3. Iowa State 87.5
4. Ohio State 86.5
5. Nebraska 84
6. North Carolina State 58
7. Iowa 57.5
8. Cornell 52
9. Virginia Tech 39.5
10. Lehigh 34.5

PSU might hit 200.

 

[InTheCircle]

We aren't the only ones that can pick up bonus points.. and that VT predication looks rather low for how well some of their guys are wrestling. I honestly thought 6th was the worst we could do, dang I was wrong

Va Tech is low because they have Siedel ranked 8th.

 

[heldyhawk606]

Va Tech is low because they have Siedel ranked 8th.

that's my point - everyone who just assumes we will move up because "we'll pickup up bonus points" there are some teams below us that have some very guys wrestling really well right now, that could bump their team scores up, will VT catch us? probably not? maybe not? the fact we have to have this conversation...

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

This is how I have it including bonus points.

 

[maxpain]

Va Tech is low because they have Siedel ranked 8th.

Definitely true but 133 is insanely tough. Siedel is the real deal but depending how things fall I could see any of the big 5 freshman (Blaze, Davino, Jax, Siedel, Larkin) finishing as a low AA or even R12. There is going to be carnage in that bracket. On the flip side Siedel could make finals and put up big bonus points with his ability on top.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

This is how I have it including bonus points.

So VA Tech is maybe a threat to its brethren WVU as well as Rutgers much more so than Iowa (at least for this year).

 

[RapalaRRC]

This is how I have it including bonus points.

What was your projected VT Score?

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

What was your projected VT Score?

Forgot to update the filter on the original post. Here is the current top 15. VT comes in at #9.

 

[Stick Kitty]

I got 56

125: 6.5
133: 6.5
141: 1.5
149: 1.5
157: 2
165: 12.5
174: 9
184: 12.5
197: 2 for Gabe
HWT: 2

 

[namenoonechose]

Iowa will pick up bonus in the early rounds to lift them up but yeah, its been quite a while since the program's floor (based on rankings) has been this low entering nationals. Curious if WrestlingKnowNothing has stats on that. You'd be hard pressed to find one lower in recent memory.

Paging Dr @Wrestleknownothing

Edit to add I see he’s already on it

 

[InTheCircle]

Forgot to update the filter on the original post. Here is the current top 15. VT comes in at #9.

Great post, I really like these graphs you produce. Kudos to you. Only 8.9 points separating 2-5. Iowa has a better result in your post. Even if Iowa had Endee, it doesn’t appear we’d be sniffing a trophy.
There is no wiggle room for the Hawks to finish solidly at 6th.
It will be interesting to how much these prognostications change after conference tournaments.

 

[Sir Pin Alot]

Paging Dr @Wrestleknownothing

Edit to add I see he’s already on it

WKN is the shizzle...

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Great post, I really like these graphs you produce. Kudos to you. Only 8.9 points separating 2-5. Iowa has a better result in your post. Even if Iowa had Endee, it doesn’t appear we’d be sniffing a trophy.
There is no wiggle room for the Hawks to finish solidly at 6th.
It will be interesting to how much these prognostications change after conference tournaments.

Thank you for the kind words

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

This is how I have it including bonus points.

I see your scores including bonus points fairly closely align with Flo's scores without bonus points. Is this because Flo is going strictly by current rankings projected into NCAA placement points? And are your scores lower because you are working off of the historical data as to how particular seeds actually place at the NCAA tournament? Another question if you wouldn't mind is how did your projected score for Penn State last NCAA tournament match up with the 177 points they scored% Thanks!

 

[Steelhead52]

I see your scores including bonus points fairly closely align with Flo's scores without bonus points. Is this because Flo is going strictly by current rankings projected into NCAA placement points? And are your scores lower because you are working off of the historical data as to how particular seeds actually place at the NCAA tournament? Another question if you wouldn't mind is how did your projected score for Penn State last NCAA tournament match up with the 177 points they scored% Thanks!

I don't know what Penn State scores this year but they obviously could break the record for the 3rd straight year. What's interesting to me is that they only lose 1 guy and may even be better next year but may have a harder time scoring points at nationals as OSU, tOSU, VT all will be strong with OSU and VT being significantly improved meaning there will be better overall competition over the next few years. Now if Iowa bounces back, Nationals will be a lot of fun and very interesting. The elite guys from the last two classes has been insane and the pipeline looks like it will continue.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I see your scores including bonus points fairly closely align with Flo's scores without bonus points. Is this because Flo is going strictly by current rankings projected into NCAA placement points? YES And are your scores lower because you are working off of the historical data as to how particular seeds actually place at the NCAA tournament? YES Another question if you wouldn't mind is how did your projected score for Penn State last NCAA tournament match up with the 177 points they scored% Thanks!

The effect of the two answers above in red is that Flo over-values top 8 seeds and under-values everything else. With PSU having almost only top 8 seeds Flo's placement and advancement points roughly equal my placement, advancement and bonus points. That is purely coincidental.

As you go down the list you will see the differences grow as we get to more teams with more #9-#33 rankings. For example, for Illinois at #10 I have them at 46 points while Flo has them at 33.5.

As for predicting PSU's score they have an annoying habit of wrestling very close to seed in spite of their very high seeds. This means they will consistently out-perform my basic model which assumes field-average performance to seed. So, a couple years back I came up with a PSU adjustment. It is a bit of junk statistics though given the relatively small sample size.

Last year based on field-average performance stats I had PSU at 156 points. Using the adjustment factor I had them at 181.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

The effect of the two answers above in red is that Flo over-values top 8 seeds and under-values everything else. With PSU having almost only top 8 seeds Flo's placement and advancement points roughly equal my placement, advancement and bonus points. That is purely coincidental.

As you go down the list you will see the differences grow as we get to more teams with more #9-#33 rankings. For example, for Illinois at #10 I have them at 46 points while Flo has them at 33.5.

As for predicting PSU's score they have an annoying habit of wrestling very close to seed in spite of their very high seeds. This means they will consistently out-perform my basic model which assumes field-average performance to seed. So, a couple years back I came up with a PSU adjustment. It is a bit of junk statistics though given the relatively small sample size.

Last year based on field-average performance stats I had PSU at 156 points. Using the adjustment factor I had them at 181.

Much appreciated!

 

[redghost1974]

PSU always blows out averages at nationals. I think the depth/familiarity in the B10 lends to keeping matches closer during the season. It never fails that PSU have guys just rolling over for them from the rest of the conferences.

What's the stat for non B10 top 8 seeds under performing?

 

[giveitall]

WIN’s TPI projects where programs could finish at the 2026 NCAA Division I Championships.

Based on WIN’s current individual rankings per weight class: 20 for 1st, 16 for 2nd, 13.5 for 3rd, 12.5 for 4th, 10 for 5th, 9 for 6th, 6.5 for 7th and 5.5 for 8th. Wrestlers ranked 9-12 earn two points each, followed by one and a half points for wrestlers ranked 13-16 and one point for those ranked 17-20. Bonus points are not projected just placement and advancement points

1. Penn State 152
2. Oklahoma State 88
3. Iowa State 87.5
4. Ohio State 86.5
5. Nebraska 84
6. North Carolina State 58
7. Iowa 57.5
8. Cornell 52
9. Virginia Tech 39.5
10. Lehigh 34.5

I've been saying this for months. Iowa doesn't sniff the top 5 and have 0 finalist.