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WLP 450 - A Collins Referendum

W

westlotpirates

Redshirt
Jan 29, 2018
320
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16
We talked hoops in Episode 450 so we wanted to post this here. Collins dipped below Carmody in both Overall and Big Ten Win% this week, so we thought it would be a good time to have a fair referendum on the Collins era, where it fits in the Big Picture, and where the 'Cats go from here.

Thanks as always!
Sam, John, and Scuzz/The West Lot Pirates
 
X

xxxbobxxx

Sophomore
Mar 12, 2005
10,785
132
43
wow, didn't realize his results have fallen that bad. Curious how those that condemned Carmody plan to continue a defense of CCC. I had been on the fence but have slid into thinking a change is due again.
 
C

Curdog7

Redshirt
Jun 22, 2001
2,680
45
35
IGNORE2 said:
wow, didn't realize his results have fallen that bad. Curious how those that condemned Carmody plan to continue a defense of CCC. I had been on the fence but have slid into thinking a change is due again.
Click to expand...
Don’t you know, NU made the tourney! Lifetime contract....
 
K

Kat burglar

Redshirt
Sep 5, 2017
229
0
0
Sports Reference.com has the coaches records. One other interesting data point is Strength of Schedule. Below is Collins' record. Strength of Schedule is off the charts this year.
SeasonSchoolConfGWLW-L%SRSSOSAP PreAP HighAP FinalNotesAdjusted
2013-14NorthwesternBig Ten331419.4244.728.57
2014-15NorthwesternBig Ten321517.4696.117.20
2015-16NorthwesternBig Ten322012.62510.164.12
2016-17NorthwesternBig Ten362412.66714.028.4325NCAA Tournament
2017-18NorthwesternBig Ten321517.4699.638.371919
2018-19NorthwesternBig Ten321319.4069.979.16
2019-20NorthwesternBig Ten31823.2585.3510.51
2020-21NorthwesternBig Ten19613.31611.4113.5819
CareerNorthwestern247115132.4668.928.74
 
K

Kat burglar

Redshirt
Sep 5, 2017
229
0
0
Below is Carmody's record at NU. Collins' average SOS is 8.75 versus 6.75 for Carmody. So Collins has a similar record with a harder schedule.

Season
▲		SchoolConfGWLW-L%SRSSOSAP PreAP HighAP FinalNotesAdjusted
2000-01NorthwesternBig Ten301119.3673.387.88
2001-02NorthwesternBig Ten291613.5525.575.09
2002-03NorthwesternBig Ten291217.4142.365.43
2003-04NorthwesternBig Ten291415.4834.635.91
2004-05NorthwesternBig Ten311516.4844.327.38
2005-06NorthwesternBig Ten291415.4833.896.44
2006-07NorthwesternBig Ten311318.4194.927.82
2007-08NorthwesternBig Ten30822.267-1.306.15
2008-09NorthwesternBig Ten311714.5488.566.93
2009-10NorthwesternBig Ten342014.5888.324.9925
2010-11NorthwesternBig Ten342014.58811.667.54
2011-12NorthwesternBig Ten331914.5768.877.84
2012-13NorthwesternBig Ten321319.4065.368.30
 
C

Curdog7

Redshirt
Jun 22, 2001
2,680
45
35
Kat burglar said:
Below is Carmody's record at NU. Collins' average SOS is 8.75 versus 6.75 for Carmody. So Collins has a similar record with a harder schedule.

Season
▲		SchoolConfGWLW-L%SRSSOSAP PreAP HighAP FinalNotesAdjusted
2000-01NorthwesternBig Ten301119.3673.387.88
2001-02NorthwesternBig Ten291613.5525.575.09
2002-03NorthwesternBig Ten291217.4142.365.43
2003-04NorthwesternBig Ten291415.4834.635.91
2004-05NorthwesternBig Ten311516.4844.327.38
2005-06NorthwesternBig Ten291415.4833.896.44
2006-07NorthwesternBig Ten311318.4194.927.82
2007-08NorthwesternBig Ten30822.267-1.306.15
2008-09NorthwesternBig Ten311714.5488.566.93
2009-10NorthwesternBig Ten342014.5888.324.9925
2010-11NorthwesternBig Ten342014.58811.667.54
2011-12NorthwesternBig Ten331914.5768.877.84
2012-13NorthwesternBig Ten321319.4065.368.30
Click to expand...
So collins is less bad but still very bad? And the trend is definitely heading down
 
P

phatcat_rivals223240

Senior
Nov 5, 2001
18,367
589
113
IGNORE2 said:
wow, didn't realize his results have fallen that bad. Curious how those that condemned Carmody plan to continue a defense of CCC. I had been on the fence but have slid into thinking a change is due again.
Click to expand...
Yay Bob and I agree on something!
I've resigned myself to the idea that he is staying at least 2-3 more seasons and I have no hope for real improvement.

For you strength of schedule geeks, tell me, if we were 12-3 instead of 3-12, wouldn't our SOS be "worse" because our opponents had 9 more losses? Aren't we helping out own SOS, in some fashion?
 
X

xxxbobxxx

Sophomore
Mar 12, 2005
10,785
132
43
phatcat said:
Yay Bob and I agree on something!
I've resigned myself to the idea that he is staying at least 2-3 more seasons and I have no hope for real improvement.

For you strength of schedule geeks, tell me, if we were 12-3 instead of 3-12, wouldn't our SOS be "worse" because our opponents had 9 more losses? Aren't we helping out own SOS, in some fashion?
Click to expand...

Me or CCC? Not sure I can handle watching a couple more seasons

Who am I kidding. I cannot not watch NU sports. I tried to quit watching this year, skipped one game and returned knowing it would be an ugly loss to those ugly Illini.
 
NUChicago

NUChicago

Sophomore
Aug 23, 2001
3,613
181
63
phatcat said:
Yay Bob and I agree on something!
I've resigned myself to the idea that he is staying at least 2-3 more seasons and I have no hope for real improvement.

For you strength of schedule geeks, tell me, if we were 12-3 instead of 3-12, wouldn't our SOS be "worse" because our opponents had 9 more losses? Aren't we helping out own SOS, in some fashion?
Click to expand...
If the number is correct, he has 3.5M reasons to stay put and that goes for the Athletic Department as well. I have resigned myself to the same fate. I think my biggest inditement against Collins is the year after our tournament appearance. That was telling how unprepared we were and I put that on the coaches.
 
P

phatcat_rivals223240

Senior
Nov 5, 2001
18,367
589
113
NUChicago said:
If the number is correct, he has 3.5M reasons to stay put and that goes for the Athletic Department as well. I have resigned myself to the same fate. I think my biggest inditement against Collins is the year after our tournament appearance. That was telling how unprepared we were and I put that on the coaches.
Click to expand...
Yeah I think of this season as long-over, and I am hopeful that, barring an unexpected and inexplicable turnaround in the next two years, that the University would have the sack to fire him with one year left. I am admittedly a casual fan and don't get caught up in things like PomPom ratings, but the years immediately prior to the Tourney year were at least fun to watch. This makes the subsequent collapse even more maddening. At least Barnett had one other great year and one additional competitive year. This... Wow
 
C

ColumbusCatFan1_rivals

Sophomore
Jun 18, 2005
4,040
135
0
Kat burglar said:
Below is Carmody's record at NU. Collins' average SOS is 8.75 versus 6.75 for Carmody. So Collins has a similar record with a harder schedule.

Season
▲		SchoolConfGWLW-L%SRSSOSAP PreAP HighAP FinalNotesAdjusted
2000-01NorthwesternBig Ten301119.3673.387.88
2001-02NorthwesternBig Ten291613.5525.575.09
2002-03NorthwesternBig Ten291217.4142.365.43
2003-04NorthwesternBig Ten291415.4834.635.91
2004-05NorthwesternBig Ten311516.4844.327.38
2005-06NorthwesternBig Ten291415.4833.896.44
2006-07NorthwesternBig Ten311318.4194.927.82
2007-08NorthwesternBig Ten30822.267-1.306.15
2008-09NorthwesternBig Ten311714.5488.566.93
2009-10NorthwesternBig Ten342014.5888.324.9925
2010-11NorthwesternBig Ten342014.58811.667.54
2011-12NorthwesternBig Ten331914.5768.877.84
2012-13NorthwesternBig Ten321319.4065.368.30
Click to expand...

Cappy, Dugan or Styre would have a better take on this, but perhaps conference strength of schedule would be a better tool to use for comparison. The BIG is certainly strong right now, but it was also a grind at the close of the 2000s.
 
C

ColumbusCatFan1_rivals

Sophomore
Jun 18, 2005
4,040
135
0
NUChicago said:
What a low bar.......
Click to expand...

I would imagine very few NU supporters believe Collins has unlimited runway in Evanston. The single tournament birth/facilities upgrades bought CC more time (and IMHO, rightfully so) than his peers would have been given assuming the same program trajectory.

That being said, it was in year nine (2008-09) where Carmody started his NIT run. If we buy into Phillips’ “raise the bar” explanation for the Collins hire, there should be the expectation of SIGNIFICANT improvement in 2021-22. The tournament appearance is looking more and more like an anomaly with each passing year.
 
Last edited:
NUChicago

NUChicago

Sophomore
Aug 23, 2001
3,613
181
63
phatcat said:
Yeah I think of this season as long-over, and I am hopeful that, barring an unexpected and inexplicable turnaround in the next two years, that the University would have the sack to fire him with one year left. I am admittedly a casual fan and don't get caught up in things like PomPom ratings, but the years immediately prior to the Tourney year were at least fun to watch. This makes the subsequent collapse even more maddening. At least Barnett had one other great year and one additional competitive year. This... Wow
Click to expand...
Agree, I am a casual basketball fan as well (but have three season tickets in the family) and the drop-off is really frustrating. I am not asking for consistent top 25 teams but one fun to watch and competative. The fact that we see our only potential upcoming win when we play Nebraska is pathetic. And that is a stretch. I would not even use the same breath to say the names Barnett and Collins. The guy is overpaid for the results he has produced. I think he lost a lot when key assistant coaches left and he does not have the chops to fill those voids.
 
S

Styre

Junior
Oct 14, 2004
7,640
270
83
ColumbusCatFan1 said:
That being said, it was in year nine (2008-09) where Carmody started his NIT run. If we buy into Phillips’ “raise the bar” explanation for the Collins hire, there should be the expectation of SIGNIFICANT improvement in 2021-22. The tournament appearance is looking more and more like an anomaly with each passing year.
Click to expand...

Yeah. Carmody's 8th year was a dreadful performance that should have gotten him fired, but when the season ended we didn't have an AD so it bought him a 9th year by default. He then rattled off what is still the winningest four-year stretch in the history of the program. Collins is in an eerily similar situation, so we'll find out if he too can bounce back in year 9.
 
D

drewjin

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2017
371
0
0
I think WLPs hit the nail on the head when they said Colin needs an on-court coach, ala MacIntosh, to be effective. Also agree with NUChicago that the Cats lost a lot when Collin's key assistants left.
 
GatoLouco

GatoLouco

Redshirt
Nov 13, 2019
5,560
18
38
drewjin said:
I think WLPs hit the nail on the head when they said Colin needs an on-court coach, ala MacIntosh, to be effective. Also agree with NUChicago that the Cats lost a lot when Collin's key assistants left.
Click to expand...
I third that. There are plenty of teams in the league without a floor general. Rutgers or Purdue come immediately to mind. PSU, Nebraska, MSU, OSU, IU... Most teams actually don’t have one. But most are much more disciplined than we are.

I can actually only think of Mike Smith, Marcus Carr, Bohannan and Ayo as PGs that control heavily the flow of the offense
 
N

NURoseBowl

Junior
Jun 16, 2009
8,052
207
38
ColumbusCatFan1 said:
Cappy, Dugan or Styre would have a better take on this, but perhaps conference strength of schedule would be a better tool to use for comparison. The BIG is certainly strong right now, but it was also a grind at the close of the 2000s.
Click to expand...
The Big Ten is ALWAYS a grind. A down year for the Big Ten is a good year for most conferences.
 
S

Secho99

Redshirt
Dec 12, 2001
1,815
36
48
phatcat said:
Yay Bob and I agree on something!
I've resigned myself to the idea that he is staying at least 2-3 more seasons and I have no hope for real improvement.

For you strength of schedule geeks, tell me, if we were 12-3 instead of 3-12, wouldn't our SOS be "worse" because our opponents had 9 more losses? Aren't we helping out own SOS, in some fashion?
Click to expand...

SOS only considers games your opponents have played against other teams. Your own results don’t count.
 
J

jindy

Redshirt
Oct 17, 2007
15
0
0
GatoLouco said:
I third that. There are plenty of teams in the league without a floor general. Rutgers or Purdue come immediately to mind. PSU, Nebraska, MSU, OSU, IU... Most teams actually don’t have one. But most are much more disciplined than we are.

I can actually only think of Mike Smith, Marcus Carr, Bohannan and Ayo as PGs that control heavily the flow of the offense
Click to expand...
Not sure how you are defining this but Eric Hunter definitely fills that role for Purdue, with others also capable(Stefanovic and Newman for example). It's one big reason that Painter recruited Hunter so hard in the first place.
 
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