Wow . . . Georgia is 4-4 AND Plus SIX on Turnovers, and

[The-Hack]

And Kentucky is 5-3 and Minus ELEVEN on turnovers.

Years ago, a poster educated me, and many others, on the significance of the turnover margin. Bluntly, teams tend to lose games they could/should otherwise win, if in minus territory, and tend to win games they could/should lose if in Plus territory on turnovers. It's a very basic Football stat, that is very predictive.

The most glaring thing our deeply "minus" number shows, when put alongside our win total . . . . we HAVE to be playing otherwise very solid football, not to have been run off the field, by the majority of teams we have played.

 

[allabouttheUK]

@The-Hack I have been having the same thoughts. UK is at the bottom in TO margin yet sits at 5-3...just how good are the CATS? I say much better than people realize.

 

[Rhavic]

And Kentucky is 5-3 and Minus ELEVEN on turnovers.

Years ago, a poster educated me, and many others, on the significance of the turnover margin. Bluntly, teams tend to lose games they could/should otherwise win, if in minus territory, and tend to win games they could/should lose if in Plus territory on turnovers. It's a very basic Football stat, that is very predictive.

The most glaring thing our deeply "minus" number shows, when put alongside our win total . . . . we HAVE to be playing otherwise very solid football, not to have been run off the field, by the majority of teams we have played.

This.
It's a testament to both youth and talent when you play the way that Kentucky played (turning it over a good bit), and still winning (and in some cases, even dominating on the field). Cut out the turnovers, and Kentucky could have very well won these past couple of games by about 3 touchdowns each. This is a young team, whose mistakes didn't even catch up to them in Tuscaloosa against Alabama until late in the game. If Kentucky played that game a bit more cleanly, then maybe we lose that game 13-27 instead of 34-6. The game itself was played at about a 13-27 score while opportunity (one of the many things that make Alabama great), gave them a 34-6 final score.
Conversely, Georgia's struggling due to youth, and a good bit of dysfunction in offensive style, plus a lack of production from important players. They're making plays but still struggling to get by against teams that we would probably blow out.
If we keep making the small steps forward, we'll win this game.

 

[WildCard]

TOs can have an enormous influence on the outcome of game but are too capricious in nature to actually "figure into" the outcome of any one game. Furthermore, not all TOs are created equal. TOs inside the 25 yard line (yours or opponents) are generally more damning than TOs between the 25s. I say that because losing the ball on or inside the 25 yard line usually means points scored or points allowed even if not a single yard is made or given. That represents a 42 yard FG which is makable by most of todays kickers. OTOH TOs between the 25s typically require at least some offense for a score or, conversely, give the defense a chance to prevent a score. JMO.

Peace

 

[Deeeefense]

Phil Steele has stated in so many words that his research shows that TOs are for the most part random, and if you are biased in either direction + or -, then the stat tends to revert to the mean.

 

[Johnfarrel]

Turnovers that are run back for touchdowns are killers. Kentucky has had at least two of those. if they are random and even out kentucky is due to get a bunch this week. l know something about statistics and that is not the case but it'seems good to dream.

 

[tuck66]

@The-Hack I have been having the same thoughts. UK is at the bottom in TO margin yet sits at 5-3...just how good are the CATS? I say much better than people realize.

Exactly.....if not for TO's the Bana game would have been more like 13 - 6.

 

[DCFseattle]

Exactly.....if not for TO's the Banana game would have been more like 13 - 6.

Fixed it for you.

 

[tuck66]

Fixed it for you.

Tahnks! Yoo speel reel gud!

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

@The-Hack I have been having the same thoughts. UK is at the bottom in TO margin yet sits at 5-3...just how good are the CATS? I say much better than people realize.

I hope no one takes this as a flame, its a take on the East. The east has been down 3-4 seasons and is the worst division in P5, 4 bad football teams, UGA, USC, Vandy and Missouri plus UT might be part of that group with all that has happened this week. But those first 4 teams are horrible offensively or those turnovers would show up more on the record, Those 4 can't take advantage of mistakes by the offense. UK has a good team, 2nd best in the division behind UF who puts maybe the best defense in the conference on the field including Bama. But its UKs window to make a move in the overall division and they are taking advantage of it, and are still in it for the division title.

 

[brianpoe]

Exactly.....if not for TO's the Bana game would have been more like 13 - 6.

I dont think so.

Proud of the effort, and we fought against a very good team but.. no.

Watching Bama the very next week seemed to solidify my thoughts during he game that Kiffen was doing more "practicing drills" than serious game management.

Some will get upset at this and accuse me of not giving our guys credit or slamming the coaches, but it is not meant to mean either of these.

We fought as well as we ever had versus a much more talented team. I believe we gained some confidence even with the lopsided score.

But in my opinion, if Saban had wanted to, it could have been much worse. We are making strides and I hope it continues tomorrow.

 

[sparky59]

.....point well made Grumpy.......what's your take on the game---from the Ga perspective?.....

 

[Deeeefense]

Turnovers that are run back for touchdowns are killers. Kentucky has had at least two of those. if they are random and even out kentucky is due to get a bunch this week. l know something about statistics and that is not the case but it'seems good to dream.

In the MSU game, they had the fumble recovery scope and score but we also had the McWilson Pick 6. That's a wash.

We do have a big negative TO number for the year but that doesn't mean the number evens out in one game, but over the course of many games, according to the data it does even out. Pick up any copy of Phill Steel's and read the section called "Turn Overs Equal Turn Around", where he uses a season over season comparions. It's based on historical data, not speculation, or a dream.

 

[3kidsandme]

I dont think so.

Proud of the effort, and we fought against a very good team but.. no.

Watching Bama the very next week seemed to solidify my thoughts during he game that Kiffen was doing more "practicing drills" than serious game management.

Some will get upset at this and accuse me of not giving our guys credit or slamming the coaches, but it is not meant to mean either of these.

We fought as well as we ever had versus a much more talented team. I believe we gained some confidence even with the lopsided score.

But in my opinion, if Saban had wanted to, it could have been much worse. We are making strides and I hope it continues tomorrow.

Not even close to true.

 

[catscratchfever3215]

In my opinion the turnover margin is a testament to the growth of the defense and resiliency of this team. A lot depends on when and where the turnover occurred. Say Georgia intercepts it on the 2nd play on our 30 yard line. First the defense will be going back on the field with short rest. Their chance of coming away with points is has significantly increased than if it happened at their 30.

Say it's 3rd and 18 and we have it on our own 35. Johnson throws a bomb to Badet but it's intercepted and the DB is tackled immediately at their 2 yard line. You could look at that as a positive for UK. Yes we had a turnover. Now we have the possibility of a saftey. With either a sack, tackle for loss, or an offensive penalty while the balls one the end zone.

There are a lot of different circumstances that determine the severity of the turnover. You never want to turn it over on the opposition's side of the fueld. Almost always ends in points.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

.....point well made Grumpy.......what's your take on the game---from the Ga perspective?.....

With the OL play we are getting it is hard for us to have a semi effective offense, at the snap of the ball, the LOS moves 2 yards deep in our backfield every play. To complicate that, we run alot of tight formations with 3 TE, now I understand the theory behind that, bring the defense in tight to create mismatches on the edge with LBs covering our TEs, but we don't do that, we run inside against 9 in the box, we aren't blocking 6.

But you asked my take, we could win if we get a special team TD and a defensive TD and are plus 2-3 in turnovers, otherwise I don't know if we put it in the endzone more than 1 time, if that, So without quite a bit of help from UK I don't see us coming out on top, Now Eason can sling it, but we don't have any WR who is a playmaker, much more likely to drop it when open that make a play on a contested ball. Kirby missed on his offensive staff, looking like pretty bad, But our talent level is way down on the OL and WR so its really hard to tell, OL can't block and WR can't catch, makes it interesting. UK gets up by 10, game is over regardless of when it happens.

 

[allabouttheUK]

I hope no one takes this as a flame, its a take on the East. The east has been down 3-4 seasons and is the worst division in P5, 4 bad football teams, UGA, USC, Vandy and Missouri plus UT might be part of that group with all that has happened this week. But those first 4 teams are horrible offensively or those turnovers would show up more on the record, Those 4 can't take advantage of mistakes by the offense. UK has a good team, 2nd best in the division behind UF who puts maybe the best defense in the conference on the field including Bama. But its UKs window to make a move in the overall division and they are taking advantage of it, and are still in it for the division title.

Good to see you around Mr. Dawg.

I, like many, appreciate your insight and in this case high praise of the UK football team.
UGA won't be down for long, just hope this is the week they figure it out.
Here is to hoping for a clean and injury free game.

 

[CatPatrick13]

I hope no one takes this as a flame, its a take on the East. The east has been down 3-4 seasons and is the worst division in P5, 4 bad football teams, UGA, USC, Vandy and Missouri plus UT might be part of that group with all that has happened this week. But those first 4 teams are horrible offensively or those turnovers would show up more on the record, Those 4 can't take advantage of mistakes by the offense. UK has a good team, 2nd best in the division behind UF who puts maybe the best defense in the conference on the field including Bama. But its UKs window to make a move in the overall division and they are taking advantage of it, and are still in it for the division title.

Grump... love your posts typically.... but the Coastal Division in the ACC has 2 losses vs. the SEC East...

 

[Crankdatmustard_rivals66299]

As Stoops said this team has not reached it's ceiling. Sooner or later they are going to put a complete game together as well as commit zero turnovers and force a few of their own.

Hopefully that is Saturday night :grimace:

 

[allabouttheUK]

Grump... love your posts typically.... but the Coastal Division in the ACC has 2 losses vs. the SEC East...

You may want to read what he posted again.

 

[catscratchfever3215]

With the OL play we are getting it is hard for us to have a semi effective offense, at the snap of the ball, the LOS moves 2 yards deep in our backfield every play. To complicate that, we run alot of tight formations with 3 TE, now I understand the theory behind that, bring the defense in tight to create mismatches on the edge with LBs covering our TEs, but we don't do that, we run inside against 9 in the box, we aren't blocking 6.

But you asked my take, we could win if we get a special team TD and a defensive TD and are plus 2-3 in turnovers, otherwise I don't know if we put it in the endzone more than 1 time, if that, So without quite a bit of help from UK I don't see us coming out on top, Now Eason can sling it, but we don't have any WR who is a playmaker, much more likely to drop it when open that make a play on a contested ball. Kirby missed on his offensive staff, looking like pretty bad, But our talent level is way down on the OL and WR so its really hard to tell, OL can't block and WR can't catch, makes it interesting. UK gets up by 10, game is over regardless of when it happens.

This game scares me more than most I suppose. The duo you have in the backfield is a lot better than what they have played this year. Georgia's backs against the wall and this is a must win game. It all comes down to how they handle the pressure and if we have become over confident. Hopefully our teams not chalking this up as an easy win because of recent success.

My opinion barring a complete meltdown from our defense and Johnson. We win a tough hard fought game. Pull away at the end and win by 10 to 14.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Grump... love your posts typically.... but the Coastal Division in the ACC has 2 losses vs. the SEC East...

Thats true, but if those games were this Saturday I don't see UT or UGA winning those games.

 

[greginky1957]

And Kentucky is 5-3 and Minus ELEVEN on turnovers.

Years ago, a poster educated me, and many others, on the significance of the turnover margin. Bluntly, teams tend to lose games they could/should otherwise win, if in minus territory, and tend to win games they could/should lose if in Plus territory on turnovers. It's a very basic Football stat, that is very predictive.

The most glaring thing our deeply "minus" number shows, when put alongside our win total . . . . we HAVE to be playing otherwise very solid football, not to have been run off the field, by the majority of teams we have played.

Nice observation

 

[brianpoe]

Not even close to true.

No, that is truly my opinion.

 

[Rhavic]

No, that is truly my opinion.

Your opinion is probably very wrong then.

 

[allabouttheUK]

@brianpoe @Rhavicc , I think there is a little something to what Brian is saying, but maybe not to the extent he believes. Bama did run pretty vanilla against us, never saw them with the killer instinct, but they did play hard, and you can't take away what the Bama players said after the game.

 

[Dallas-Wild]

Your opinion is probably very wrong then.

Agree, Saban doesn't take it easy or let up on a conference foe.

 

[CapnBlubs]

Bizarre thing is that Stoops' teams have done better as the turnover margin gets worse.

2013
Turnover margin in SEC games: 0 (won the TO battle in 4 games)
SEC record: 0-8

2014
Turnover margin in SEC games: -2 (won the TO battle in 2 games)
SEC record: 2-6

2015
Turnover margin in SEC games: -6 (never won the TO battle...only tied 3 times)
SEC record: 2-6

2016
Turnover margin in SEC games: -10 (lost the TO battle in every game)
SEC record: 4-2

 

[fuzz77]

While we have had many turnovers, what we have not had are penalties. In the past penalties have killed our drives and kept drives against us alive...affected our games much more than turnovers.
Think about it...a illegal procedure penalty or hold on 3rd & 2 greatly reduces the chances of making the first down and often forcing you to turn the ball over via a punt.
It is preferable to have neither penalties or turnovers but as long as there are only a few of one or the other you have a decent chance of overcoming their effects.

 

[hmt5000]

Good to see you grumpy... your dog's definitely look like they have regressed since week 1 or teams have figured them out. If we take care of the ball I think we win comfortably but you guys seem to come out like world beaters against us at times... hope this isn't one of them.

 

[brianpoe]

Your opinion is probably very wrong then.

Could be. As @allabouttheUK mentioned, they seemed somewhat vanilla and other suspicious play calls.

If we come out and punch UGA and UT in the mouth (even though both are pretty down) my opinion may be rightfully invalidated.

 

[allabouttheUK]

Could be. As @allabouttheUK mentioned, they seemed somewhat vanilla and other suspicious play calls.

If we come out and punch UGA and UT in the mouth (even though both are pretty down) my opinion may be rightfully invalidated.

Make not mistake though, Brian, although UGA and UT are no Bama, they are still very formidable opponents. UGA especially worries me because their defense is legitimate...probably one rung below UF and Bama. UT on the other hand...not nearly as worried about the more I think about it.

I think Bama played extremely hard, but they played straight up. I don't think the used it as a walk through like some would have you believe. I think they just held some things back and didn't treat it like a big game emotionally or psychologically.

 

[The-Hack]

WildCard-- I agree that as to one game, the predictive value can be easily obscured by many other factors, given the multiplicity of sensitive conditions. Your point as to the relative value of turnovers is actually a confirmation of my original point, as we have REPEATEDLY turned the ball over in or very near our own, or our opponents redzone . . . . notably, Boom's fumble on the 18(?) yard line of Mizzou, and "Smith/Johnson's" pick inside the Mizzou 20 yard line. I could list others, but you get my point. As to the predictive value as the sample size increases, I would hope that given your interest, knowledge and abilities on all statistical subjects (I like your posts, here), please take the 10 teams listed immediately above Kentucky's lowly position in the category, and compare season records. Do any of them have a winning record? I have not done the work, feeling confident that Kentucky is a notable exception to the general rule.

DEFENSE-- you might have been my 15 year old reference point. I knew someone had done a detailed study, and Phil Steele is the likely source, and you the likely reporter of it. I remember that he or someone would do season-over-season predictions, such as "K-State was 7-5 in 2002, but minus eight on turnovers . . . . assuming a return to the mean, they project as a potential 9-3 sqaud." While being minus in a game, or an entire season does not guarantee an immediate return to the mean (how sloppy would Georgia have to be tomorrow night for it to balance in one game??), EVENTUALLY it is likely to balance out.

Grumpy-- Dude, we all feel your pain. Given Georgia's deep local talent pool, and relative youth, don't give up on 'em, as better days are coming. I, for one, am pulling for them to win out, as of 11:35 p.m., Eastern Standard Time, Saturday, November 5th, 2016!!

 

[CatsFanGG24]

I hope no one takes this as a flame, its a take on the East. The east has been down 3-4 seasons and is the worst division in P5, 4 bad football teams, UGA, USC, Vandy and Missouri plus UT might be part of that group with all that has happened this week. But those first 4 teams are horrible offensively or those turnovers would show up more on the record, Those 4 can't take advantage of mistakes by the offense. UK has a good team, 2nd best in the division behind UF who puts maybe the best defense in the conference on the field including Bama. But its UKs window to make a move in the overall division and they are taking advantage of it, and are still in it for the division title.

ACC Coastal is worse than SEC East. UGA and UT have wins over ACC C #1 & #2

 

[brianpoe]

Make not mistake though, Brian, although UGA and UT are no Bama, they are still very formidable opponents. UGA especially worries me because their defense is legitimate...probably one rung below UF and Bama. UT on the other hand...not nearly as worried about the more I think about it.

I think Bama played extremely hard, but they played straight up. I don't think the used it as a walk through like some would have you believe. I think they just held some things back and didn't treat it like a big game emotionally or psychologically.

Neither are Bama, but they each have more talent than any other opponent we have faced not wearing Crimson.

They both will be working extra hard to get this win. These games will definitley aid in the continuing assessment of our team. My judgement will have nothing to do with actually winning the game, but moreso how we actually play.

A well fought game and a loss does not bother me with either of these. UT has rolled us, UGA has had their way in the past - make them earn it and it will be another step in the right direction.

I am definitley not prepared to make the statement @3kidsandme has professed in stating UGA has no shot at this game.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

ACC Coastal is worse than SEC East. UGA and UT have wins over ACC C #1 & #2

Yes we do, but right now, I don't think either of us win those games, UT has been hit harder with injuries than anyone I can remember in recent years plus Hurd bailing on them this week. We on the other hand have such poor OL play teams are moving the LOS backwards 2 yards and killing the running game and the qb has time to take the snap and throw it.

Good to see you around Mr. Dawg.

I, like many, appreciate your insight and in this case high praise of the UK football team.
UGA won't be down for long, just hope this is the week they figure it out.
Here is to hoping for a clean and injury free game.

This sr class was probably Richt's worst in the 15 years he was our coach, signed 31 players, we played the 12 season with 67 scholarshipped players, of that number 18 are gone, only 2 are contributing and just 1 starter, other sr starters are redshrits. On top of that we signed 1 of the top 10 in Georgia and he was dismissed before his frosh year was over. Richt never considered OL recruiting important, never emphasized it because he was a finesse coach, Kirby isn't and the lack of a decent OL is crippling our offense. No back is going to look very good if he is having to make cuts as soon as he takes the handoff nor qb when he has to take the snap and sling it in one motion. Next fall we will start 2 true frosh at OTs or 2 JUCOs or a combination, because we don't have any on campus now, that's how far Richt let our OL recruiting go, he was all about signing qbs and rbs.

 

[OHIO COLONEL]

I dont think so.

Proud of the effort, and we fought against a very good team but.. no.

Watching Bama the very next week seemed to solidify my thoughts during he game that Kiffen was doing more "practicing drills" than serious game management.

Some will get upset at this and accuse me of not giving our guys credit or slamming the coaches, but it is not meant to mean either of these.

We fought as well as we ever had versus a much more talented team. I believe we gained some confidence even with the lopsided score.

But in my opinion, if Saban had wanted to, it could have been much worse. We are making strides and I hope it continues tomorrow.

My son, who lives in Georgia, is a big Bama booster. What he told me is that the talk was that the team was very unfocused for our game. That was a week of turmoil (if Bama ever has any) when the QB quit the team and announced he was transferring, and the LB was suspended for being arrested a couple of days before the game.

Which could explain perhaps the perception of some of Kiffin's play calling.

 

[jauk11]

Yes we do, but right now, I don't think either of us win those games, UT has been hit harder with injuries than anyone I can remember in recent years plus Hurd bailing on them this week. We on the other hand have such poor OL play teams are moving the LOS backwards 2 yards and killing the running game and the qb has time to take the snap and throw it.


This sr class was probably Richt's worst in the 15 years he was our coach, signed 31 players, we played the 12 season with 67 scholarshipped players, of that number 18 are gone, only 2 are contributing and just 1 starter, other sr starters are redshrits. On top of that we signed 1 of the top 10 in Georgia and he was dismissed before his frosh year was over. Richt never considered OL recruiting important, never emphasized it because he was a finesse coach, Kirby isn't and the lack of a decent OL is crippling our offense. No back is going to look very good if he is having to make cuts as soon as he takes the handoff nor qb when he has to take the snap and sling it in one motion. Next fall we will start 2 true frosh at OTs or 2 JUCOs or a combination, because we don't have any on campus now, that's how far Richt let our OL recruiting go, he was all about signing qbs and rbs.

Come on, he signed two WRs somewhere in there.

Just joshing and I appreciate your inside/outside information, and I don't think Georgia will be down that long, we need to make hay while the sun shines. And it is hard to believe they are down that bad this year, they are still favored and I'm not at all sure they shouldn't be, still capable of a very good game, I hope this isn't the one.

And by the way, while the other positions may have suffered some you do have the #1 rated QB in the nation and two of the best RBs in the nation, this years production being an anomaly. Seems like LSU's Heisman candidate had a miserable game against Bama and just had a fantastic game last week, you never know when the turnaround might occur..

 

[WinkyBoy]

OK, here's the deal on turnovers. I have a database of stats for every FBS game back to 2002, and the following includes all 10,022 games from 2002 through 2015.

The first column is the PLUS TURNOVER number - if a team has two FEWER turnovers than the other team, it is PLUS TWO.
The second column is the number of games where one team has that turnover edge.
The third column is the number of games where the team with the turnover edge wins the game.
The fourth column is the percentage.
----tried to make these line up with Courier New, but.....

PLUS GAMES WINS PCT
1 3538 2289 64.7
2 2273 1766 77.7
3 1249 1078 86.3
4 569 513 90.2
5 211 204 96.7
6 59 58 98.3
7 18 18 100.0
8 5 5 100.0

These results are profound, if you ask me. Analysis of game stats over a long period of time shows that there is nothing that has more bearing on the outcome of the game. Just an edge of 1 in a game wins almost 2/3 of the time.

(Just as a point of interest, the one game where the team which was plus 6 and lost the game was: Marshall beat Memphis 23-22 on 11-17-2011, despite having 6 TO's to Memphis' 0. To add to the oddness, yardage stats were fairly even: Marshall 293, Memphis 277.)

Further analysis of the data shows that each turnover amounts to approx 5 points, meaning if you are -3 in a game, it (on the average) cost you 15 points.

Stats geek out....

 

[Deeeefense]

I've always heard if you turn it over 3 times you stand a 90% chance of losing and these stats are pretty close to that.