ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Nebraska in 2023
A new era is officially underway at Nebraska as Matt Rhule gets ready for his debut as Cornhuskers head coach. It’s sure to be an interesting year in Lincoln with so many new faces coming in, including a different starting quarterback with Jeff Sims taking the role.
As for expectations, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projects the Huskers to be a borderline bowl-eligible team.
Nebraska has made major changes since last year’s 4-8 campaign under Scott Frost and Mickey Joseph. Rhule is in after spending the last two-plus seasons in the NFL with the Carolina Panthers, but is back where he belongs at the collegiate level.
His quest to kickstart a turnaround starts Sept. 2 with an intriguing Big Ten West matchup, and Nebraska could have a few opportunities to make noise in league play, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Sept. 2: Nebraska at Minnesota — 29.7% chance of win
Nebraska and Minnesota will kick off the season, marking the fifth straight season the two teams square off. The Golden Gophers have won the last four matchups, including last year’s 20-13 game in Lincoln. In that game, Mo Ibrahim had 128 yards and two touchdowns for Minnesota while Anthony Grant led the way for Nebraska with 115 yards.
Minnesota is one of the more intriguing teams in the Big Ten this year after being picked third in the Big Ten West, according to the Big Ten Preseason Media Poll. However, ESPN thinks PJ Fleck and the Gophers have a strong chance of spoiling Rhule’s Nebraska debut.
Sept. 9: Nebraska at Colorado — 68.7% chance of win
An old Big 12 rivalry gets renewed in Week 2 when Nebraska heads to Colorado to take on the new-look Buffaloes. Deion Sanders orchestrated an all-time roster turnover as he took over the program with 53 players entering the transfer portal, making CU a national story entering the season.
Nebraska and Colorado haven’t played each other since 2019 when Mel Tucker was in charge of the Buffaloes, who won that game 34-31. Before the 2018 matchup, the two teams hadn’t played since 2010 when they moved to different conferences — Nebraska to the Big Ten and Colorado to the Pac-12.
Sept. 16: Nebraska vs Northern Illinois — 83.3% chance of win
Nebraska will continue its break from Big Ten play when Northern Illinois makes the trip to Lincoln. The Huskies and Cornhuskers haven’t played since 2019 when Nebraska cruised to a 44-8 victory at Memorial Stadium.
Northern Illinois looks to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the MAC this year, coming in third place in the MAC West in the preseason poll. It looks like Nebraska might have the upper hand against the Huskies, though, as ESPN gives the Cornhuskers a strong chance of victory.
Sept. 23: Nebraska vs Louisiana Tech — 81.2% chance of win
Nebraska’s final non-conference game of the year comes in Week 4 when the Cornhuskers welcome Louisiana Tech to Memorial Stadium. The two teams have only played two other times, the latest coming in 2006 with a 49-10 Cornhuskers victory.
The Bulldogs were picked fourth in the Conference-USA preseason poll, and ESPN’s FPI is very high on Nebraska’s chances of getting a third straight victory over Louisiana Tech.
Sept. 30: Nebraska vs Michigan — 15.5% chance of win
After the break from Big Ten action, Nebraska has a tough task at hand in Week 5 when Michigan travels to Lincoln. The Wolverines are the favorite to win the conference and have won four straight games against the Cornhuskers, including last year’s 34-3 victory.
Michigan — the two-time defending Big Ten champion — is the strong favorite to get another win over Nebraska, according to ESPN’s FPI. It won’t be easy for Rhule’s group to pull it off, but it could still be an interesting matchup.
Oct. 6: Nebraska at Illinois — 34.8% chance of win
Illinois, like Minnesota, provides plenty of intrigue this year after losing some key playmakers to the NFL. But the Fighting Illini still have plenty of power coming back, including wide receiver Isaiah Williams and Reggie Love III.
Nebraska has lost three straight to the Fighting Illini, and ESPN’s FPI projects another defeat for the Cornhuskers as Rhule and Co. make the trek to Champaign.
Oct. 21: Nebraska vs Northwestern — 66.3% chance of win
Coming out of the bye week, Nebraska will square off against a Northwestern team in turmoil. Coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in July and David Braun is now in as interim coach as the fallout continues from the hazing allegations within the program. As for the on-field product, multiple contributors — including Evan Hull — are off to the NFL, meaning the Wildcats have plenty of question marks.
Northwestern was picked last in the preseason poll, and ESPN gives Nebraska a high chance of victory in the home matchup. It could be an opportunity for the Cornhuskers to get a win after the off week.
Oct. 28: Nebraska vs Purdue — 51.3% chance of win
Nebraska has won two straight over Purdue and is looking for a third consecutive victory when the Boilermakers arrive at Memorial Stadium for the October showdown. ESPN projects it to be a bit of a coin flip, but gives the Cornhuskers a slight edge.
The Boilermakers underwent a coaching change with Ryan Walters taking the reins and will be coming out with a new-look offense. Graham Harrell and his Air Raid scheme will be interesting to watch in West Lafayette this year as they could test opposing defenses.
Nov. 4: Nebraska at Michigan State — 27.1% chance of win
Nebraska starts its last month of the season against a Michigan State team looking to bounce back from a rough 2022 season. The two teams last played in 2021 when the Spartans pulled off the 23-20 victory in East Lansing.
Tucker is in the second year of a lucrative contract extension, and he’ll try to engineer a turnaround to get Michigan State back to a bowl game. It might not be easy, though, as two of his top playmakers entered the portal. Still, ESPN gives the Spartans a high chance of victory.
Nov. 11: Nebraska vs Maryland — 51% chance of win
The matchup between Nebraska and Maryland could be one of the most intriguing on the Big Ten slate. Mike Locksley said the Terrapins are ready to compete for a conference title, but his team was picked fourth in a loaded Big Ten East by the media.
Taulia Tagovailoa is back at quarterback for the Terps and hopes to take one final leap as he sets his sights on the NFL Draft. The matchup against Nebraska won’t be easy, though, as ESPN’s FPI sees it as a fairly even matchup. However, the Cornhuskers have the slight edge as the home team.
Nov. 18: Nebraska at Wisconsin — 22.3% chance of win
Wisconsin awaits Nebraska as the penultimate game on the schedule, marking the first time the two teams will play since 2021. The Badgers have won the last nine games against the Cornhuskers, including the 35-28 win two seasons ago.
UW has undergone some major changes this year, as well, with Luke Fickell coming in from Cincinnati, Phil Longo now calling the plays and multiple high-profile transfer additions. As the offense moves to an Air Raid style, the Badgers will have a new kind of explosiveness — and it’s a big reason why they were picked to win the Big Ten West.
Nov. 24: Nebraska vs Iowa — 44.1% chance of win
The final game of Nebraska’s season is arguably the biggest. That’s when the Cornhuskers renew their rivalry with Iowa — and they’ll do so on Thanksgiving as part of the Big Ten’s new media rights deal.
The Hawkeyes were active in the portal as they brought in a new quarterback in Cade McNamara. All eyes are on the offense after last year’s infamous struggles, but Nebraska will look for a second consecutive victory over Kirk Ferentz and Co. It won’t be easy, though, according to ESPN.
ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Nebraska — 5.8-6.3
At Big Ten Media Days, Rhule said he wants Nebraska to be “feared” again. The 2023 season is his first step toward getting the program back to that status, and ESPN’s FPI puts them on the border of a bowl game.
That projected record ranks 10th in the Big Ten. Although Michigan is the Big Ten favorite, Ohio State leads the FPI projections with a projected 11.5-1.2 record. The Wolverines sit behind the Buckeyes with a 9.9-2.3 projection.
As for whether Rhule can get Nebraska to a bowl game, it’s yet to be seen. But he’s already changing the culture in Lincoln between new traditions and the expectation of being “feared” once again.