Greg McElroy explains decision to fade Oklahoma in 2023

Greg McElroy explained his decision to fade Oklahoma in 2023. After predicting a hot start for Brent Venables and crew, the Sooners will fall down the ladder a bit towards the end of the season.

“Now, I think Brent Venables is doing all the right things. I really believe that,” McElroy said on Always College Football. “They attacked the portal. I think they’re gonna be a more physical team this year. I think they’re gonna be a more physically mature team this year.”

It’s a talented group, but will Oklahoma run out of steam?

“But, is the roster where it needs to be to be able to compete week in and week out at a consistently high level? I hope it is,” McElroy said. “I genuinely hope it is. And I was very proud of the growth that they showed from their lowest point against the Texas Longhorns to how they performed against Florida State in the bowl game. They grew and they got better and I do think that in time that growth will continue.

“But I’m not sure the depth is there just yet and I think this year’s version of the Big 12 is really deep and I think there’s a lot of teams that could beat each other up. I really believe that.”

Looking at the schedule, which includes some new Big 12 opponents after expansion, Oklahoma has the edge early on.

“So let’s go through the schedule. Arkansas State. That’ll be a win,” McElroy said. “SMU at home. That should be a win as well. SMU breaking in a new quarterback [Preston Stone], but SMU’s gonna put some points on the board. They’re gonna test that defense and we’ll get a good indicator of how far that defense has come in year number two under Brent Venables. I think they’ll get that one. At Tulsa, should be one they get. 

“At Cincinnati, Cincinnati in a bit of a…not saying a rebuild. Scott Satterfield steps into what is a pretty good situation. But I think there could be a little bit of turbulence in Cincinnati’s season. So, I expect Oklahoma to potentially get that one and Cincinnati, I do think has a chance to be in the top 25 at that point.”

Greg McElroy breaks down Oklahoma schedule in 2023

The good vibes will continue for Oklahoma up to Red River. But after that, it gets tricky for the Sooners.

“Iowa State at home, that should be a win,” McElroy said. “You’re gonna get a Red River game against Texas that should be excellent. Maybe you come up short. Maybe you pull it off. We’ve seen crazier things happen in that game. 

“Texas is the class of the Big 12. How many times has an average Texas team beat a really good Oklahoma team or at least given them fits? We’ve seen it plenty of times and I think that game can always be a little bit of a coin toss, UCF. Another game that can definitely be won there at Oklahoma.” 

McElroy was unsure if Oklahoma could keep up the pace down the stretch in 2023.

“But here’s where I think it gets really dicey,” McElroy said. “Now, you’re gonna say at Kansas. Okay, well, you just ran a gauntlet. At Kansas is tough. It’s the last Bedlam game. You’ve got that one on the road in Stillwater. That’s gonna be tough.

“You get BYU on the road. Second to last game of the season. You get TCU, a team that’s probably I think, I’ll get to them in a minute. A team that might not be up to snuff where they were last year. But, they might be fighting for a 8th win and they want to try to pull something off against Oklahoma at their place.”

Overall, there’s an opportunity for Oklahoma to really improve after last year’s disappointment. But that’s the key: opportunity.

“So, I look at Oklahoma’s schedule and I think it’s definitely a very manageable schedule,” McElroy said. “I believe that. But, is there depth to where they need to be to get back to within striking distance of the Big 12 Championship game?

“I’m not sure…I think they’ll drop a few that they shouldn’t. And as a result, they’ll be a team that’s probably sitting in the top 10 through four or five weeks, but ultimately might be lucky to finish in the top 25, top 20 at the very best. So I think, a team that starts off fast, Oklahoma, might not finish quite as strong when the game goes along. But give it time Oklahoma fans. I have faith. I have belief.”