2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: February 15 projection

As Selection Sunday approaches, the projected four through seven seed lines of the NCAA tournament bracket are as fluid as they’ve been all season. These teams are capable of advancing to the second weekend of the tournament, even though there is a lot of volatility within this group.

One team that had been in that cohort before a precipitous fall is Iowa State. The Cyclones (16-9 overall but 3-9 in the Big 12) won their first 12 games of the season before they began stumbling mightily in conference play. They now find themselves in last place in the league, tied with West Virginia.

There was a time when a sub-.500 conference record was viewed as a huge black eye on a team’s résumé. Iowa State has taken it to the extreme by winning just one-quarter of its Big 12 games to date. Fortunately for the Cyclones, they remain in the projected field at the moment — “at the moment” is the key phrase — because they have seven Quad 1 victories, including wins over Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa, Xavier and Memphis.

The good news for Iowa State fans? The remaining six regular-season games are relatively manageable. Their incongruous tournament résumé

probably won’t remain such a mixed bag. Either Iowa State will continue to fall, thus completely ending their tournament aspirations, or they’ll find stable ground in league play, solidify an NCAA berth and claw their way out of the Big 12 cellar.

As the season continues to take shape, come back each Tuesday for our latest projection of what the 2022 NCAA Tournament field will look like on “Selection Sunday” (which is March 13, by the way).

Note: Teams projected to be conference champs are in bold type, with the conference listed.

No. 1 seeds

Gonzaga (West Coast)
Auburn (SEC)
Arizona (Pac-12)
Kentucky

2 seeds

Kansas (Big 12)
Purdue (Big Ten)
Baylor
Duke (ACC)

3 seeds

Providence (Big East)
Villanova
Texas Tech
Wisconsin

4 seeds

Illinois
Tennessee
Texas
UCLA

5 seeds

Michigan State
Houston (American)
Ohio State
LSU

6 seeds

Alabama
Marquette
USC
Xavier

7 seeds

UConn
Saint Mary’s
Boise State (Mountain West)
Wyoming

8 seeds

Arkansas
Iowa
Seton Hall
Colorado State

9 seeds

Loyola-Chicago (MVC)
Wake Forest
TCU
Murray State (OVC)

10 seeds

Davidson (Atlantic 10)
Iowa State
Indiana
San Francisco

11 seeds

North Carolina
Miami
BYU
Oklahoma

12 seeds

North Texas (Conference USA)
Iona (Metro Atlantic)
Notre Dame/Creighton
Oregon/San Diego State

13 seeds

Toledo (MAC)
Chattanooga (Southern)
South Dakota State (Summit)
New Mexico State (WAC)

14 seeds

Liberty (Atlantic Sun)
Vermont (America East)
Wagner (Northeast)
Cleveland State (Horizon)

15 seeds

Montana State (Big Sky)
Texas State (Sun Belt)
Yale (Ivy)
Long Beach State (Big West)

16 seeds

New Orleans (Southland)/Norfolk State (MEAC)
Longwood (Big South)/UNC Wilmington (Colonial)
Colgate (Patriot)
Southern (SWAC)

For those looking ahead, the first conference tournament game is March 1. Sites for the 2022 NCAA Tournament are listed here.