2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: February 22 projection

I ventured down to SMU’s Moody Coliseum on Sunday to get a close look at the Mustangs and Memphis, two AAC teams trying to claw their way into the NCAA tournament. 

The erratic Tigers demonstrated that they can’t stand prosperity, as they faded in the second half against the senior-laden Mustangs to snap a six-game winning streak. It was a key victory for SMU, but the Mustangs have more work to do to earn an at-large berth. The same goes for Penny Hardaway’s team. 

Overall, we’re poised for a frenetic sprint to Selection Sunday as several big-name programs — looking at you, Michigan, North Carolina and Florida — have middling tournament résumés and precarious at-large hopes. 

The Tar Heels need more quality victories in the ACC. Problem is, there aren’t a lot of opportunities for that unless you topple Duke. Circle Wednesday’s Rutgers-Michigan game Wednesday: It’s an important Big Ten matchup between the revived Scarlet Knights and a Wolverines team dealing with the fallout from the Juwan Howard suspension. Florida gets a chance for a needed Quad 1 win Tuesday night when Arkansas visits. And the good news for fading BYU is that the West Coast Conference is deeper this season, with Gonzaga a lock and Saint Mary’s and San Francisco looking like tournament-caliber teams. Problem is, the Cougars don’t face any of those teams before the league tournament in Las Vegas. 

We’re in for a fascinating finish to the regular season, which ends next weekend.

As the season continues to take shape, come back each Tuesday for our latest projection of what the 2022 NCAA Tournament field will look like on “Selection Sunday” (March 13).

Note: Teams projected to be conference champs are in bold type, with the conference listed.

1 seeds

Gonzaga (West Coast)
Auburn (SEC)
Arizona (Pac-12)
Kansas (Big 12)

2 seeds

Purdue (Big Ten)
Baylor
Kentucky
Duke (ACC)

3 seeds

Texas Tech
Villanova (Big East)
Illinois
Wisconsin

4 seeds

Tennessee
Providence
UCLA
Houston (American)

5 seeds

Texas
Alabama
UConn
Ohio State

6 seeds

USC
Saint Mary’s
Arkansas
LSU

7 seeds

Marquette
Michigan State
Boise State (Mountain West)
Seton Hall

8 seeds

Xavier
Wyoming
Murray State (Ohio Valley)
Iowa State

9 seeds

Colorado State
Creighton
Iowa
San Francisco

10 seeds

Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley)
Wake Forest
TCU
Davidson (Atlantic 10)

11 seeds

San Diego State
Miami
Notre Dame
Indiana

12 seeds

North Carolina/Florida
BYU/Michigan
Iona (Metro Atlantic)
North Texas (Conference USA)

13 seeds

Chattanooga (Southern)
Toledo (MAC)
South Dakota State (Summit)
Vermont (America East)

14 seeds

Wagner (Northeast)
New Mexico State (WAC)
Liberty (Atlantic Sun)
Montana State (Big Sky)

15 seeds

Princeton (Ivy)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Long Beach State (Big West)
Texas State (Sun Belt)

16 seeds

Southern (SWAC)/New Orleans (Southland)
Longwood (Big South)/Norfolk State (MEAC)
UNC Wilmington (Colonial)
Colgate (Patriot)

For those looking ahead, the first conference tournament game is March 1. Sites for the 2022 NCAA Tournament are listed here.