2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: January 11 projection

With conference play in full swing, there’s a shakeup on the top seed line in On3’s latest NCAA tournament projection.

Stumbles by Kansas and Duke have opened the door for Auburn and Arizona to join Gonzaga and top overall seed Baylor as No. 1 seeds for now.

Auburn has an especially strong résumé, with a 7-1 record against teams in Quad 1 or 2 and a schedule ranked 11th in strength. Its only loss was in double overtime against Connecticut. Arizona has a 4-1 record against teams in Quad 1 or 2 and has benefited from three of its recent games being postponed. Three Pac-12 teams — USC and UCLA are the others — are in prime contention for No. 1 seeds (and all three currently are ranked in the top six).

As the season continues to take shape, come back each Tuesday for our latest projection of what the 2022 NCAA Tournament field will look like on “Selection Sunday” (which is March 13, by the way).

Note: Teams projected to be conference champs are in bold type, with the conference listed.

1 seeds

Baylor (Big 12)
Gonzaga (West Coast)
Auburn (SEC)
Arizona (Pac-12)

2 seeds

LSU
Kansas
Michigan State (Big Ten)
Purdue

3 seeds

Duke
USC
Houston (American)
UCLA

4 seeds

Ohio State
Wisconsin
Villanova (Big East)
Providence

5 seeds

Xavier
Tennessee
Illinois
Alabama

6 seeds

Seton Hall
UConn
Iowa State
Texas Tech

7 seeds

Kentucky
Texas
Loyola (Missouri Valley)
Oklahoma

8 seeds

West Virginia
BYU
Indiana
San Francisco

9 seeds

Colorado State
North Carolina
Saint Mary’s
Minnesota

10 seeds

Davidson (Atlantic 10)
Iowa
San Diego State (Mountain West)
Wake Forest

11 seeds

Belmont (Ohio Valley)
Murray State
Marquette/Memphis
Florida

12 seeds

Miami (ACC)
Iona (Metro Atlantic)
UAB (Conference USA)
Creighton/TCU

13 seeds

Grand Canyon (WAC)
Ohio (MAC)
Chattanooga (Southern)
South Dakota State (Summit)

14 seeds

Vermont (America East)
Towson (Colonial)
Oakland (Horizon)
Wagner (Northeast)

15 seeds

UC Irvine (Big West)
Princeton (Ivy)
Navy (Patriot)
Liberty (Atlantic Sun)

16 seeds

Montana (Big Sky)
UNC-Asheville (Big South)
Howard (MEAC)/Nicholls State (Southland)
Southern (SWAC)/ Louisiana (Sun Belt)

Sites for the 2022 NCAA Tournament are listed here.