College Basketball Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 as regular season ends

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The college basketball regular season is over and the AP Poll Top 25 takes on a new look with conference tournaments ready to begin across the country. With just one week left before Selection Sunday, teams will face a busy week filled with chances to improve their resume.

Trying to predict how the voters will view each win and loss leads to a shuffled up version of the Top 25, with some movement in the middle and plenty of intersecting resumes.

Each team in the Top 25 this week is looking to solidify their resume as the postseason begins and NCAA Tournament hopes come down to the wire. From the top to the bottom, every spot matters and will be emphasized.

Here is how I think the new AP Top 25 will look on Mar. 11:

1. Houston (Last week: 1)

kelvin-sampson-pens-heartfelt-message-to-houston-fans — (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Houston finished the regular season schedule strong with a road win over UCF and a dominant home finale against Kansas over the weekend to prove their worth in a new conference.

The Cougars won the Big 12 regular season title in their first season and will start conference tournament play on Thursday after a double bye.

2. UConn (Last week: 2)

Dan Hurley — (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

UConn closed their schedule with a pair of importance conference road wins over Marquette and Providence to cement their spot in the rankings once more as the back-to-back quest continues.

The Huskies hold the top seed in the Big East conference tournament and will not play until Thursday.

3. Purdue (Last week: 3)

Purdue coach Matt Painter (Nelson Chenault/USA Today Sports)

Purdue picked up a road win over Illinois to start the final week of the regular season before finishing things off with a home win against Wisconsin.

The Boilermakers have secured the top seed in the Big Ten conference tournament and will play on Friday.

4. North Carolina (Last week: 7)

on3.com/hubert-davis-raves-about-cormac-ryan-improved-shooting-creating-space-on-offense/ — © Bob Donnan

North Carolina finished the regular season strong and makes another jump in the projected Top 25 based on a rivalry win over Duke which followed a big win against Notre Dame in the mid-week.

The Tar Heels secured the top seed in the ACC conference tournament and will not play until Thursday after a double bye.

5. Tennessee (Last week: 4)

(Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports) Feb 20, 2024; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes reacts against the Missouri Tigers during the second half at Mizzou Arena.

Tennessee started the week off strong with a road win over South Carolina but then dropped the first game in a month at home against a surging Kentucky team.

The Volunteers finished the season with the outright SEC regular season title, meaning they will not play in the conference tournament until Friday.

6. Creighton (Last week: 10)

Creighton head coach Greg McDermott (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)

Creighton continues to climb the projected AP Poll Top 25 after winning on the road against Villanova to close out the regular season after a full week of rest.

The Blue Jays earned a bye in the Big East conference tournament and will play next on Thursday.

7. Arizona (Last week: 5)

Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd — © Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona started the week off with a road win over UCLA but hurt the resume in the final regular season game with a road loss against USC over the weekend.

The Wildcats still claimed the top seed in the Pac-12 conference tournament and will play their first game on Thursday.

8. Iowa State (Last week: 6)

T.J. Otzelberger - Iowa State — © Reese Strickland | USA TODAY Sports

Iowa State picked up a big win over BYU in the mid-week slate before dropping the final game on the schedule to Kansas State on the road this weekend.

The Cyclones also earned a double bye in the Big 12 conference tournament and will not play until Thursday.

9. Marquette (Last week: 8)

Shaka Smart — © Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Marquette fell to UConn this week, but bounced back in the regular season finale on the road against Xavier to gain momentum heading into the postseason.

The Golden Eagles will start the Big East conference tournament run on Thursday after a bye.

10. Kentucky (Last week: 15)

on3.com/john-calipari-jokes-with-jay-wright-about-defense-reveals-level-of-concern-he-held-before-arkansas-win/ — © Jordan Prather

Kentucky continues a fast climb up the projected AP Poll Top 25 this week after beating Vanderbilt and getting a major resume boost on the road against Tennessee to close out the schedule.

The Wildcats secured a double bye in the SEC conference tournament with a strong finish and will play next on Friday.

Ranking 11-25

11. Duke (Last week: 9)
12. Auburn (Last week: 13)
13. Baylor (Last week: 11)
14. Illinois (Last week: 12)
15. Kansas (Last week: 14)
16. Gonzaga (Last week: 19)
17. Utah State (Last week: 22)
18. Alabama (Last week: 16)
19. South Carolina (Last week: 17)
20. St. Mary’s (Last week: 23)
21. Texas Tech (Last week: NR)
22. Washington State (Last week: 18)
23. BYU (Last week: 20)
24. Dayton (Last week: 25)
25. Nevada (Last week: NR)

Projected to drop out: SDSU (Last Week: 21), South Florida (Last week: 24)