College Basketball Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 as March begins

The first week of March brings a new look at the AP Poll Top 25, including a new plenty of changes following a big Saturday slate of matchups between highly-ranked teams.

Trying to predict how the voters will view each win and loss leads to a shuffled up version of the Top 25, with some movement in the middle and plenty of intersecting resumes.

Each team in the Top 25 this week is looking to solidify their resume as the postseason nears and NCAA Tournament hopes come to a boiling point. From the top to the bottom, every spot matters.

Here is how I think the new AP Top 25 will look on Mar. 4:

1. Houston (Last week: 1)

Houston climbed to the top of the AP Poll Top 25 last week after the top teams slipped up. Now, they hold onto the position by beating Cincinnati and escaping at the last second against Oklahoma to maintain their spot atop the Big 12 standings.

The Cougars will play against UCF on the road before a showdown with Kansas to wrap up the regular season.

2. Purdue (Last week: 2)

Purdue remains at No. 2 this week, just behind Houston and ahead of UConn. They got a week off before facing Big Ten foe Michigan State as they look to wrap up the Big Ten regular season title and prepare for postseason play.

The Boilermakers will face a road test against Illinois before playing Wisconsin.

3. UConn (Last week: 3)

UConn got a full week to prepare for their Big East matchup with Seton Hall on Sunday. The Huskies passed another test as the regular season nears and conclusion and conference tournaments approach.

The Huskies will get a pair of road games against Marquette and Providence to close out the Big East schedule.

4. Tennessee (Last week: 4)

Tennessee was able to pair up a pair of big wins last week, starting with Auburn in the mid-week before Alabama over the weekend. The latter win put them firmly in control of the SEC regular season title run with one week left to play.

The Volunteers will play against South Carolina on the road before a home game against Kentucky closes out the schedule.

5. Arizona (Last week: 6)

Arizona fell in the projected Top 25 last week, but rebounded well with wins over Arizona State and Oregon to reclaim their spot atop the Pac-12 standings. They now look to clinch a regular season title and carry momentum into the postseason.

The Wildcats will face a pair of Los Angeles road games against UCLA and USC.

6. Iowa State (Last week: 8)

Iowa State picked up a pair of important Big 12 wins this week when they beat Oklahoma and UCF. They have cemented themselves as the second team in the conference standings behind Houston and validated the analytics attached to their resume.

The Cyclones will face BYU and then play on the road against Kansas State.

7. North Carolina (Last week: 9)

North Carolina was able to make the quick transition from Saturday to Monday and beat Miami this week before taking down in-state rival NC State in a tight game. They remain on top of the ACC standings with just one week left in the regular season.

The Tar Heels will play against Notre Dame before a big rivalry game against Duke on the road.

8. Marquette (Last week: 5)

Marquette started the week off well with a win over Providence on Wednesday before dropping a game against Creighton. They split results for the week, but still have one of the strongest resumes in the Big East and remain in the Top 10 this week.

The Golden Eagles will face UConn before a road game against Xavier wraps things up.

9. Creighton (Last week: 12)

Creighton bounced back from a loss last week by beating Seton Hall and Marquette. They have regained the momentum which they picked up in a resume-defining win over UConn.

The Blue Jays will play Villanova over the weekend to wrap up regular season play after a week off.

10. Duke (Last week: 10)

Duke took care of business this week by handling Louisville in the mid-week and dominating Virginia over the weekend. They continue to carry upward momentum in the Top 25 as the regular season reaches a conclusion.

The Blue Devils will finish out the conference schedule at NC State before a home game against North Carolina.

Ranking 11-25

11. Baylor (Last week: 15)
12. Illinois (Last week: 13)
13. Kansas (Last week: 7)
14. Auburn (Last week: 11)
15. Kentucky (Last week: 16)
16. Alabama (Last week: 14)
17. South Carolina (Last week: 18)
18. Washington State (Last week: 19)
19. St. Mary’s (Last week: 17)
20. Gonzaga (Last week: 23)
21. SDSU (Last week: 20)
22. Utah State (Last week: 22)
23. South Florida (Last week: 25)
24. Nevada (Last week: NR)
25. Boise State (Last week: NR)

Projected to drop out: Dayton (Last week: 21), Florida (Last Week: 24)