2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Latest Bracketology following bubble moves

Plenty of movement over the past week on both ends of the bracket leads to a major shift in how bracketology can be viewed. The results continue to swing back and forth for the final spot on the 1-line, and the bubble sees multiple teams shift up and down.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The year of upsets has continued in full force, with a baffling trend of Top 10 teams losing against unranked opponents on the road gaining steam. That leads to a revolving door throughout the field.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

All records and projections reflect game results through Feb. 15.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona
Last four byes: Colorado, Wake Forest, Washington State, Utah
Last four in:  St. John’s, Texas A&M, Northwestern, Villanova
First four out: Nevada, Ole Miss, Nebraska, Boise State

First Four (Dayton)

16 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN) vs. 16 Merrimack (NEC)
16 NCCU (MEAC) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
11 Texas A&M vs. 11 St. John’s
11 Northwestern vs. 11 Villanova

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 NCCU/Southern
8 Texas vs. 9 Indiana State (MVC)
Spokane
5 Dayton (A-10) vs. 12 Samford (SoCon)
4 Baylor vs. 13 Appalachian State (SBC)
Pittsburgh
6 Oklahoma vs. 11 Northwestern/Villanova
3 Alabama (SEC) vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Indianapolis
7 Michigan State vs. 10 Wake Forest
2 Marquette vs. 15 Green Bay (Horizon)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue remains the top overall seed and show no signs of slowing down as they keep pace atop the Big Ten and remain one of the top teams no matter which computer numbers are used. The Boilermakers look close to being able to call this position a lock as March nears.

2-seed Marquette

Marquette moves onto the 2-line in this edition of bracketology thanks to a recent run of strong performances which they can cap over the next week with a matchup against UConn. That win could take the Golden Eagles from a borderline here to a group with a case to claim a 1-seed on Selection Sunday.

West (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City
1 Arizona (Pac-12) vs. 16 North Dakota (Summit)
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Mississippi State
Salt Lake City
5 Creighton vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 BYU vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Omaha
6 Kentucky vs. 11 Utah
3 Kansas vs. 14 Morehead State (OVC)
Charlotte
7 Utah State (MWC) vs. 10 TCU
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona returns back to the 1-seed in this updated version of bracketology with as much of the credit going to the likes of Tennessee and North Carolina for losses as Arizona for holding steady. The Wildcats remain in the mix among a handful of teams with a case for this spot but currently hold the edge.

2-seed North Carolina

North Carolina has seen results get bumpy over the past couple weeks after looking dominant for a long stretch and now need to get things on track to cement their spot as one of the top seeds when March comes around. The Tar Heels have all the veteran talent to get it done, now it is about fine-tuning things.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 Florida vs. 9 Colorado State
Spokane
5 SDSU vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Omaha
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 Washington State
3 Iowa State vs. 14 UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
Charlotte
7 FAU vs. 10 Virginia
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Sam Houston (CUSA)

1-seed Houston

Houston holds steady on the 1-line and just manages to hold onto the No. 2 overall seed once again over UConn, which continues to push closer. The Cougars will be under as much pressure to keep this spot as ever this week as UConn and Marquette matchup in one of the biggest games on the schedule.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee continues to bounce back and forth across seed lines with results doing the same against the SEC schedule. The Volunteers still have plenty opportunity to get back on top of Arizona over the next month but must avoid the rollercoaster of recent weeks to close the deal.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Eastern Kentucky/Central Connecticut
8 South Carolina vs. 9 Cincinnati
Brooklyn
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 South Florida (AAC)
4 Duke vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Pittsburgh
6 Clemson vs. 11 Texas A&M/St. John’s
3 Illinois vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
Memphis
7 New Mexico vs. 10 Colorado
2 Auburn vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)

1-seed UConn

UConn continues to build its resume and separate from the field this season. The Huskies move closer to Houston in the battle for overall seeding and get their chance to make a pass by beating Marquette over the weekend and do so convincingly.

2-seed Auburn

Auburn remains on the 2-line in this updated bracketology. They made a statement this week, particularly on Wednesday when they paused the positive talk surrounding South Carolina with a huge win. As the resume starts to catch up with the computer numbers and eye test, Auburn remains in the hunt.