2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Updated Bracketology after selection committee hint

On3 imageby:James Fletcher III02/18/24

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For the first time this season the NCAA Tournament selection committee gave everyone a sneak-peak at how they view the top teams in the country by releasing their Top 16 overall seeds heading into the weekend. The hint provides crucial help in cracking this group’s code for building the field.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The Mountain West got good news during the bracket reveal on CBS, hearing that the committee views SDSU as a 4-seed so far. That suggests the overall strength of the conference is even higher than previously believed within that room.

The ACC also got good news with North Carolina and Duke both placed higher than most anticipated and a Clemson shoutout among the first teams out.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

ESPN's Joe Lunardi doesn't see Kentucky as a No. 1-seed.
Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

All records and projections reflect game results through Feb. 17.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona
Last four byes: Cincinnati, Nebraska, Wake Forest, Villanova
Last four in:  Northwestern, Boise State, Texas A&M, Nevada
First four out: Ole Miss, Colorado, St. John’s, Utah
(View more teams on the bubble in the latest On3 Conference Breakdown)

First Four (Dayton)

16 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN) vs. 16 North Dakota (Summit)
16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
11 Northwestern vs. 11 Boise State
12 Texas A&M vs. 12 Nevada

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 Norfolk State/Southern
8 Colorado State vs. 9 Mississippi State
Spokane
5 BYU vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Dayton (A-10) vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Omaha
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 Grand Canyon (WAC)
3 Baylor vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Charlotte
7 Oklahoma vs. 10 Virginia
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue
EVANSTON, ILLINOIS – FEBRUARY 12: Zach Edey #15 of the Purdue Boilermakers celebrates a basket against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Welsh-Ryan Arena on February 12, 2023 in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Purdue remains the top overall seed after the selection committee confirmed their spot at the top. The Boilermakers saw UConn close the gap with a dominant win but could make this position a lock as March nears.

2-seed Tennessee

UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE ATHLETICS

Tennessee continues to bounce back and forth across seed lines with results doing the same against the SEC schedule. The Volunteers were confirmed to be on the 2-line when the committee unveiled the top teams.

West (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City
1 Arizona (Pac-12) vs. 16 Eastern Kentucky/North Dakota
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Texas
Salt Lake City
5 Kentucky vs. 12 Samford (SoCon)
4 SDSU (MWC) vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Brooklyn
6 Texas Tech vs. 11 Villanova
3 Duke vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
Omaha
7 Utah State vs. 10 Wake Forest
2 Kansas vs. 15 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

1-seed Arizona

Caleb Love-Arizona
Zachary BonDurant | USA TODAY Sports

Arizona got the nod as the final 1-seed on Saturday when the Top 16 was revealed and followed it up with a dominant performance. The Wildcats remain in the mix among a handful of teams with a case for this spot but currently hold the edge.

2-seed Kansas

Kansas big man Hunter Dickinson hit the game-winning basket against TCU
Jay Biggerstaff | USA TODAY Sports

Despite the ups and downs of recent weeks, the NCAA Tournament selection committee kept Kansas on the 2-line. The Jayhawks used a come-from-behind win over Oklahoma to back up the result.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Merrimack (NEC)
8 New Mexico vs. 9 TCU
Spokane
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 South Florida (AAC)
4 Auburn vs. 13 Appalachian State (SBC)
Pittsburgh
6 Florida vs. 11 Indiana State (MVC)
3 Iowa State (Big 12) vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Charlotte
7 FAU vs. 10 Nebraska
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 Sam Houston (CUSA)

1-seed UConn

Dan Hurley
LAS VEGAS, NV – MARCH 25: UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts to a call during the NCAA Division I Men’s Championship Elite Eight round basketball game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the UConn Huskies on March 25, 2023 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

UConn continues to build its resume and separate from the field this season. The Huskies would have moved past Houston either way with the dominant win over Marquette, but the selection committee gave them the nod before anyway.

2-seed North Carolina

Armando Bacot and RJ Davis opted to return to North Carolina in 2023-24
Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina has seen results get bumpy over the past couple weeks after looking dominant for a long stretch and now need to get things on track to cement their spot as one of the top seeds when March comes around. The Tar Heels were still listed as the top 2-seed in the field on Saturday.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 South Carolina vs. 9 Washington State
Pittsburgh
5 Creighton vs. 12 Texas A&M/Nevada
4 Illinois vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Memphis
6 Clemson vs. 11 Northwestern/Boise State
3 Alabama (SEC) vs. 14 Morehead State (OVC)
Indianapolis
7 Michigan State vs. 10 Cincinnati
2 Marquette vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)

1-seed Houston

Mar 24, 2023; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson on the sideline during the second half of an NCAA tournament Midwest Regional semifinal at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Houston holds steady on the 1-line drops to the No. 3 overall seed behind UConn, who pushed past them in the eyes of the selection committee. The Cougars will be look to reclaim the spot by counting their run through the Big 12.

2-seed Marquette

Marquette G Tyler Kolek
Benny Sieu | USA TODAY Sports

Marquette keeps a spot on the 2-line in this edition of bracketology despite a blowout loss against UConn. That loss likely says more about the opponent than the Golden Eagles who are still in position for a strong finish.