2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Latest Bracketology after 1-seed upsets

On3 imageby:James Fletcher III02/23/24


Upsets continue to shape the NCAA Tournament field in a season with as much parity as any in recent memory. This updated bracketology look sees plenty of movement up top after several teams previously listed in the selection committee’s Top 16 dropped games during the week.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The battle for the top overall seed has heated up over the past week, with UConn surpassing Purdue behind their winning effort and an upset loss. However, the Huskies handed the top spot back in the mid-week with an upset loss against Creighton. Arizona also joined the party of 1-seeds to lose.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:


© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

All records and projections reflect game results through Feb. 22.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
Last four byes: Texas, Nebraska, Villanova, Boise State
Last four in:  Virginia, Nevada, Northwestern, Colorado
First four out: Utah, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
(View more teams on the bubble in the latest On3 Conference Breakdown)

First Four (Dayton)

16 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN) vs. 16 Merrimack (NEC)
16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Grambling State (SWAC)
11 Northwestern vs. 11 Colorado
11 Virginia vs. 11 Nevada

Midwest (Detroit)

1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 Norfolk State/Grambling State
8 Washington State (Pac-12) vs. 9 Gonzaga
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Auburn vs. 13 Appalachian State (SBC)
Salt Lake City
6 Kentucky vs. 11 Grand Canyon (WAC)
3 Creighton vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
7 New Mexico vs. 10 Nebraska
2 Kansas vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)

1-seed Purdue

Matt Painter will be front and center at Purdue’s inaugural men’s basketball Fantasy Camp.

Purdue remains the top overall seed after a brief dip below UConn was ended by another upset loss by one of the best teams in the country. The Boilermakers now control their own fate as it relates to regional seeding but must avoid another upset in the Big Ten with UConn and Houston right behind them.

2-seed Kansas

Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Kansas remains a 2-seed in this updated look at bracketology after getting a mid-week break before their weekend matchup. The Jayhawks will be happy to see teams around them fall and secure their spot among the top teams without having to play.

West (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City
1 Arizona vs. 16 South Dakota State (Summit)
8 Michigan State vs. 9 Mississippi State
5 Clemson vs. 12 South Florida (AAC)
4 BYU vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
6 Florida vs. 11 Northwestern/Colorado
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
7 Utah State (MWC) vs. 10 Texas
2 Marquette vs. 15 Sam Houston (CUSA)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd
© Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona holds onto the 1-seed distinction despite a loss against Washington State on Thursday night at home. The Wildcats still hold an advantage over the rest of the candidates for the final spot in the West Region thanks to superior analytics and an established resume.

2-seed Marquette

Marquette head coach Shaka Smart
© Benny Sieu | USA TODAY Sports

Marquette remains on the 2-line after taking out their weekend frustrations against a DePaul team which has already made a coaching change. The Golden Eagles will now prepare for the final stretch of the regular season which includes a combination of bubble teams and top seeds from the Big East.

East (Boston)

1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 Colorado State vs. 9 Wake Forest
5 Illinois vs. 12 Samford (SoCon)
4 Baylor vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 Indiana State (MVC)
3 Alabama (SEC) vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
7 TCU vs. 10 Boise State
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)

1-seed UConn

UConn HC Dan Hurley
Sean M. Haffey | Getty Images

UConn had a golden opportunity to take over the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology but slipped up on the road against Creighton before making things official. The Huskies must now hit reset and ensure they close out the regular season strong against Big East foes.

2-seed North Carolina

Hubert Davis-North Carolina-Kansas
(Jaylynn Nash | USA TODAY Sports)

North Carolina held onto its spot as a 2-seed during the bye week leading into a weekend matchup. The Tar Heels got a big boost from the selection committee last week when they were named the top team on this line and have done nothing to lose grip.

South (Dallas)

1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Eastern Kentucky/Merrimack
8 South Carolina vs. 9 FAU
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Richmond (A-10)
4 SDSU vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
6 Dayton vs. 11 Virginia/Nevada
3 Duke vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
7 Oklahoma vs. 10 Villanova
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Morehead State (OVC)

1-seed Houston

Mar 24, 2023; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson on the sideline during the second half of an NCAA tournament Midwest Regional semifinal at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Houston holds steady on the 1-line as the No. 3 overall seed behind Purdue and UConn, but inches closer to both teams in the race for the top spot thanks to a pair of losses in the past week. Meanwhile, the Cougars further cemented their resume with a convincing win against Iowa State.

2-seed Tennessee

Rick Barnes
(Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports) Feb 14, 2024; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the first half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena.

Tennessee continues to sit on the 2-line in bracketology following another SEC win in the mid-week. The Volunteers continue to boast the best NCAA Tournament resume out of the conference and will look to beat a skidding Texas A&M team this weekend.