2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Updated Bracketology after Saturday slate

On3 imageby:James Fletcher III02/25/24

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The top of bracketology has seen plenty of shake-ups over the past week as upsets continue to tell the story of college basketball in 2024. The next few weeks will also tell the story of the bubble as teams move up and down with little time left to correct mistakes in their resume or with the computer numbers.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The battle for the top overall seed continues to heat up with Houston drawing closer to UConn and Purdue. Meanwhile Texas A&M and Ole Miss continue to slip backwards as the SEC looks in danger of losing two potential bubble teams.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

march-madness-1-seed-candidates
© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

All records and projections reflect game results through Feb. 24.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
Last four byes: Nebraska, Texas, New Mexico, Northwestern
Last four in: Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Villanova
First four out: Providence, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
(View more teams on the bubble in the latest On3 Conference Breakdown)

First Four (Dayton)

16 Little Rock (OVC) vs. 16 Merrimack (NEC)
16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Grambling State (SWAC)
11 Colorado vs. 11 Nevada
11 Virginia vs. 11 Villanova

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 Norfolk State/Grambling State
8 Washington State vs. 9 Colorado State
Pittsburgh
5 Clemson vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Auburn vs. 13 Appalachian State (SBC)
Salt Lake City
6 Florida vs. 11 Colorado/Nevada
3 Creighton vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Omaha
7 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 10 Nebraska
2 Kansas vs. 15 South Dakota State (Summit)

1-seed Purdue

Matt Painter will be front and center at Purdue’s inaugural men’s basketball Fantasy Camp.

Purdue remains the top overall seed, but the race continues to tighten between them, UConn and Houston. The resume remains strong for the Boilermakers and they lead one of the best conferences in college basketball with just a few games remaining.

2-seed Kansas

kansas-jayhawks-head-coach-bill-self-shares-message-players-shorthanded-roatation
Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Kansas remains a 2-seed this weekend after beating Texas on Saturday. The Jayhawks still have one of the strongest resumes in the country and remain in the picture for the Big 12 regular season title as they continue chasing Houston.

West (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City
1 Arizona vs. 16 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN)
8 Michigan State vs. 9 Gonzaga
Spokane
5 BYU vs. 12 South Florida (AAC)
4 SDSU vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Omaha
6 Dayton vs. 11 Indiana State (MVC)
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
Indianapolis
7 South Carolina vs. 10 Texas
2 Marquette vs. 15 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd
© Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona held onto its 1-seed position despite a mid-week loss against Washington State on Thursday. The Wildcats followed that up with a weekend win against Washington which cements their spot for another week as they remain in the mix for the Pac-12 title.

2-seed Marquette

Marquette head coach Shaka Smart
© Benny Sieu | USA TODAY Sports

Marquette remains on the 2-line after not playing a game between this updated bracketology list and the last one. They will look to hold onto it once more on Sunday when they face Xavier in a Big East matchup.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Boise State
Pittsburgh
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Samford (SoCon)
4 Baylor vs. 13 Cornell (Ivy)
Memphis
6 TCU vs. 11 Virginia/Villanova
3 Alabama vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
Charlotte
7 Oklahoma vs. 10 New Mexico
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)

1-seed UConn

UConn HC Dan Hurley
Sean M. Haffey | Getty Images

UConn remains No. 2 on the overall seed line for now, but things have gotten tight up top with very little space separating them from Purdue above or Houston below. The final weeks will determine how these three stack up on Selection Sunday.

2-seed North Carolina

Hubert Davis-North Carolina-Kansas
(Jaylynn Nash | USA TODAY Sports)

North Carolina held onto its spot as a 2-seed once again after taking care of business this weekend against Virginia in a low-scoring game. The Tar Heels remain the favorite to claim the ACC regular season title as the season reaches the final stretch.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Little Rock/Merrimack
8 Wake Forest vs. 9 FAU
Spokane
5 Kentucky vs. 12 Richmond (A-10)
4 Illinois vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Brooklyn
6 Utah State (MWC) vs. 11 Grand Canyon (WAC)
3 Duke vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Charlotte
7 Texas Tech vs. 10 Northwestern
2 Tennessee (SEC) vs. 15 Sam Houston (CUSA)

1-seed Houston

Mar 24, 2023; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson on the sideline during the second half of an NCAA tournament Midwest Regional semifinal at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Houston holds steady on the 1-line as the No. 3 overall seed behind Purdue and UConn as things move closer every day. As the Big 12 leader and a team on a win streak, it could just be a matter of time before the Cougars find themselves moving up the board in bracketology.

2-seed Tennessee

Rick Barnes
(Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports) Feb 14, 2024; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes during the first half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena.

Tennessee continues to sit on the 2-line in bracketology following another SEC win over the weekend against a Texas A&M team which needed a win. The Volunteers now sit atop the conference standings and look in a great spot when combining analytics and resume.