2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Updated Bracketology as bubble shifts

Another week of games is in the books and the college basketball landscape is as open as ever. The seed lines get a new look and the bubble shifts as conference play continues and the latest On3 Bracketology launces.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The conference portion of the season continues to deliver with unpredictable outcomes nearly every night in the biggest games.

Check out the latest projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

All records and projections reflect game results through Jan. 18.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona
Last four byes: Texas A&M, Nevada, Ole Miss, Colorado
Last four in: Indiana State, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Nebraska
First four out: Kansas State, Providence, Gonzaga, Texas

First Four (Dayton)

16 NCCU (MEAC) vs. 16 Jackson State (SWAC)
16 Lafayette (Patriot) vs. 16 Central Connecticut (NEC)
11 Indiana State vs. 11 Ohio State
11 Wake Forest vs. 11 Nebraska

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue vs. 16 Central Connecticut/Lafayette
8 Villanova vs. 9 Texas A&M
Omaha
5 Dayton (A-10) vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Baylor vs. 13 Troy (SBC)
Pittsburgh
6 Memphis vs. 11 Oregon (Pac-12)
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Drexel (CAA)
Omaha
7 Colorado State vs. 10 St. Mary’s (WCC)
2 Kansas (Big 12) vs. 15 Western Illinois (OVC)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue returns to the top of the bracket after Houston’s recent losses dropped them just slightly. The battle for the top spot is extremely close between the two sides, but for now the nod goes to the team with bigger wins on the resume.

2-seed Kansas

Kansas remains on the 2-seed line with questionable computer numbers so far. The Jayhawks will have plenty more opportunities to rise up the rankings in the Big 12 as conference play continues.

West (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City
1 Arizona vs. 16 Denver (Summit)
8 TCU vs. 9 Nevada
Spokane
5 Iowa State vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 Creighton vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Salt Lake City
6 Utah vs. 11 Wake Forest/Nebraska
3 BYU vs. 14 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
Memphis
7 Utah State vs. 10 Colorado
2 Auburn (SEC) vs. 15 Sam Houston (CUSA)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona remains on the 1-line as the final team thanks to impressive computer numbers and a return to form after a slide over recent weeks. The Wildcats must now find consistency over the next two months to keep their spot.

2-seed Auburn

Auburn rises up the seed lines as they continue winning in SEC play. Despite playing without a household name or top-ranked prospect, the balance and depth of the Tigers has proven to be among the best in the country and makes them a real contender.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston vs. 16 Jackson State/NCCU
8 St. John’s vs. 9 Mississippi State
Spokane
5 SDSU vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Brooklyn
6 FAU vs. 11 Indiana State/Ohio State
3 Duke vs. 14 UMass Lowell (AEC)
Charlotte
7 Texas Tech vs. 10 New Mexico
2 Tennessee vs. 15 High Point (Big South)

1-seed Houston

An early slide in the first taste of Big 12 play knocked Houston off the top of the bracket, but a quality win over Texas Tech showed the Cougars are still one of the best teams in the country and should be taken serious.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee has built one of the best rosters of the Rick Barnes era and looks like a real contender thanks to improved offense which complements the standard defense his teams possess. The Volunteers benefit from several resume building opportunities in the near future.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn vs. 16 St. Peter’s (MAAC)
8 Clemson vs. 9 Michigan State
Pittsburgh
5 Marquette vs. 12 North Texas (AAC)
4 Illinois vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Indianapolis
6 Oklahoma vs. 11 Seton Hall (Big East)
3 Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
Charlotte
7 Cincinnati vs. 10 Princeton (Ivy)
2 North Carolina vs. 15 Kennesaw State (ASUN)

1-seed UConn

UConn is starting to get healthy and look like a team which could make a run through the Big East on the way to a deep NCAA Tournament run for the second straight season under Dan Hurley.

2-seed North Carolina

North Carolina just keeps winning and appears to be a real threat to not only win the ACC this season, but return to the NCAA Tournament as a highly-seeded team for the first time in several years.