2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bid stealers rock bracketology bubble

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A new No. 1 overall seed emerges as Purdue loses to Wisconsin and gives UConn a chance to pass them by. Houston can follow, jumping from No. 3 to No. 2 or No. 1 with a Big 12 championship tonight against Iowa State.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The Top 16 overall seeds appear to be set, barring a shocking conference tournament performance by one of the teams currently on the 5-seed line now, but the bubble has shifted significantly as teams are knocked out of automatic bid contention.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

march-madness-1-seed-candidates — © Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

All records and projections reflect game results through Mar. 15.
Projected 1-line: UConn, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina
Last four byes: Mississippi State, Colorado, Colorado State, Northwestern
Last four in: Michigan State, St. John’s, FAU, Oklahoma
First four out: Texas A&M, Virginia, Indiana State, Pittsburgh
(View more teams on the bubble in the latest On3 Conference Breakdown)

First Four (Dayton)

16 HOWARD (MEAC) vs. 16 WAGNER (NEC)
16 MONTANA STATE (Big Sky) vs. 16 Grambling State (SWAC)
11 Michigan State vs. 11 Oklahoma
11 St. John’s vs. 11 FAU

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UCONN (Big East) vs. 16 HOWARD/WAGNER
8 Nevada vs. 9 Colorado
Spokane
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 OREGON (Pac-12)
4 Kansas vs. 13 VERMONT (AEC)
Brooklyn
6 Utah State vs. 11 Michigan State/Oklahoma
3 Duke vs. 14 COLGATE (Patriot)
Charlotte
7 Texas vs. 10 DRAKE (MVC)
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Western Kentucky (CUSA)

1-seed UConn

Dan Hurley — Icon Sportswire / Contributor PhotoG/Getty

UConn moves to the No. 1 overall seed after watching Purdue fall in their Big Ten conference tournament semifinal against Wisconsin. Now their fate is in their own hands against Marquette.

2-seed Tennessee

Rick Barnes — Randy Sartin | USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee drops to the 2-seed line following a loss against Mississippi State in the SEC conference tournament, allowing North Carolina to rise above with a chance to seal the spot by advancing.

West (Los Angeles)

Charlotte
1 North Carolina vs. 16 ST. PETER’S (MAAC)
8 TCU vs. 9 Mississippi State
Spokane
5 SDSU vs. 12 VCU (A10)
4 Alabama vs. 13 CHARLESTON (CAA)
Memphis
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 St. John’s/FAU
3 Baylor vs. 14 MOREHEAD STATE (OVC)
Salt Lake City
7 Nebraska vs. 10 Grand Canyon (WAC)
2 Arizona vs. 15 UC-Davis (Big West)

1-seed North Carolina

north-carolina-head-coach-hubert-davis-reveals-focus-this-week-no-midweek-game — Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina jumps onto the 1-seed line after an upset loss by Tennessee in the SEC conference tournament. The Tar Heels can seal the deal by advancing further in the ACC conference tournament and eliminate all doubt with a title run.

2-seed Arizona

TUCSON, AZ – DECEMBER 04: Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd speaks to his team during a basketball game between the Cal Bears and the Arizona Wildcats on December 4, 2022 at McKale Center in Tucson, Arizona. (Photo by Christopher Hook/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Arizona is nearly out of the mix for a 1-seed now, but can hold onto hope that North Carolina could lose in their conference tournament if the Wildcats clinch the Pac-12 title on Saturday.

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue vs. 16 MONTANA STATE/Grambling State
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Boise State
Omaha
5 BYU vs. 12 SAMFORD (SoCon)
4 Auburn (SEC) vs. 13 UAB (AAC)
Pittsburgh
6 Florida vs. 11 MCNEESE STATE (Southland)
3 Creighton vs. 14 AKRON (MAC)
Omaha
7 Clemson vs. 10 Colorado State
2 Iowa State vs. 15 LONGWOOD (Big South)

1-seed Purdue

Matt Painter will be front and center at Purdue’s inaugural men’s basketball Fantasy Camp.

Purdue falls to the No. 2 overall seed after an upset loss against Wisconsin in the semifinal of the Big Ten conference tournament on Saturday. The Boilermakers will still host the Midwest region as UConn will go to the East.

2-seed Iowa State

T.J. Otzelberger - Iowa State — © Reese Strickland | USA TODAY Sports

Iowa State remains on the 2-seed line in the latest bracketology update. The Cyclones will look to make a deep run in the Big 12 conference tournament to improve their standing even more.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 STETSON (ASUN)
8 Washington State vs. 9 NEW MEXICO (MWC)
Salt Lake City
5 South Carolina vs. 12 NC STATE (ACC)
4 Illinois (Big Ten) vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Pittsburgh
6 Texas Tech vs. 11 JAMES MADISON (SBC)
3 Kentucky vs. 14 OAKLAND (Horizon)
Indianapolis
7 Dayton vs. 10 Northwestern
2 Marquette vs. 15 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)

1-seed Houston

Kelvin-Sampson-reaches-out-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-staff-after-controversial-finish-Houston-Cougars-Greg-Byrne-Nate-Oats — Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Houston remains the No. 3 overall seed in bracketology and appears pretty locked into their current position heading into the weekend of the Big 12 conference tournament.

2-seed Marquette

Shaka Smart — © Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Marquette picked up the win they needed in the Big East conference tournament to remain a projected 2-seed and will now hope to improve their standing with more wins over quality opponents.