2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Final bracketology predictions ahead of reveal

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Selection Sunday has finally arrived, as the NCAA Tournament picture comes into focus following a chaotic weekend in college basketball. Here is the final update leading into the official bracket reveal.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

With two less spots in the field than previously believed, and three from one point on Saturday, the race for the final four spots in the NCAA Tournament is as tight as ever.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

march-madness-1-seed-candidates — © Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

All records and projections reflect game results through Mar. 17.
Projected 1-line: UConn, Purdue, Houston, Iowa State
Last four byes: Colorado, TCU, Colorado State, Michigan State
Last four in: St. John’s, Oklahoma, FAU, Northwestern
First four out: Texas A&M, Virginia, Indiana State, Pittsburgh
(View more teams on the bubble in the latest On3 Conference Breakdown)

First Four (Dayton)

16 HOWARD (MEAC) vs. 16 WAGNER (NEC)
16 MONTANA STATE (Big Sky) vs. 16 GRAMBLING STATE (SWAC)
10 St. John’s vs. 10 Oklahoma
11 FAU vs. 11 Northwestern

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UCONN (Big East) vs. 16 HOWARD/WAGNER
8 Texas vs. 9 Colorado State
Salt Lake City
5 BYU vs. 12 MCNEESE STATE (Southland)
4 Kentucky vs. 13 UAB (AAC)
Omaha
6 ST. MARY’S (WCC) vs. 11 OREGON (Pac-12)
3 ILLINOIS (Big Ten) vs. 14 OAKLAND (Horizon)
Charlotte
7 Nevada vs. 10 DRAKE (MVC)
2 North Carolina vs. 15 LONGWOOD (Big South)

1-seed UConn

Dan Hurley — Icon Sportswire / Contributor PhotoG/Getty

UConn moves to the No. 1 overall seed after watching Purdue fall in their Big Ten Tournament, then avoids any debate with Houston after a Big 12 Tournament loss. The Huskies now stand alone atop the pack with a Big East title in their hands.

2-seed North Carolina

north-carolina-head-coach-hubert-davis-reveals-focus-this-week-no-midweek-game — Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina jumped onto the 1-seed line over the weekend before taking a loss to NC State in the ACC championship game on Saturday. While they had a chance to hold where they were, the Big 12 title ultimately lifted Iowa State’s resume just enough to make the pass.

West (Los Angeles)

Omaha
1 IOWA STATE (Big 12) vs. 16 MONTANA STATE/GRAMBLING STATE
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 NEW MEXICO (MWC)
Spokane
5 SDSU vs. 12 NC STATE (ACC)
4 Alabama vs. 13 VERMONT (AEC)
Memphis
6 Florida vs. 11 JAMES MADISON (SBC)
3 Baylor vs. 14 MOREHEAD STATE (OVC)
Salt Lake City
7 Nebraska vs. 10 St. John’s/Oklahoma
2 Arizona vs. 15 LONG BEACH STATE (Big West)

1-seed Iowa State

T.J. Otzelberger - Iowa State — © Reese Strickland | USA TODAY Sports

Iowa State makes a late jump onto the 1-seed line in the latest bracketology update after thrashing Houston to lift the Big 12 Tournament title. The Cyclones shuffle ahead of North Carolina barely after watching an ACC championship loss on Saturday night.

2-seed Arizona

TUCSON, AZ – DECEMBER 04: Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd speaks to his team during a basketball game between the Cal Bears and the Arizona Wildcats on December 4, 2022 at McKale Center in Tucson, Arizona. (Photo by Christopher Hook/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Arizona holds steady as a projected 2-seed in this updated bracketology, with little question about what region they will be placed in. Without any other contenders out West, the path for the Wildcats remains the same.

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue vs. 16 ST. PETER’S (MAAC)
8 Boise State vs. 9 Colorado
Salt Lake City
5 South Carolina vs. 12 DUQUESNE (A10)
4 Kansas vs. 13 CHARLESTON (CAA)
Pittsburgh
6 Texas Tech vs. 11 GRAND CANYON (WAC)
3 Creighton vs. 14 AKRON (MAC)
Charlotte
7 Clemson vs. 10 Michigan State
2 Tennessee vs. 15 WESTERN KENTUCKY (CUSA)

1-seed Purdue

Matt Painter will be front and center at Purdue’s inaugural men’s basketball Fantasy Camp.

Purdue falls to the No. 2 overall seed after an upset loss against Wisconsin in the semifinal of the Big Ten conference tournament on Saturday. The Boilermakers will still host the Midwest region as UConn will go to the East.

2-seed Tennessee

Rick Barnes — Randy Sartin | USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee drops to the 2-seed line following a loss against Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament. The Volunteers also get shuffled down by Iowa State but will still find themselves heading the Charlotte for the opening weekend.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston vs. 16 STETSON (ASUN)
8 Dayton vs. 9 Mississippi State
Brooklyn
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 SAMFORD (SoCon)
4 Duke vs. 13 YALE (Ivy)
Pittsburgh
6 Utah State vs. 11 FAU/Northwestern
3 AUBURN (SEC) vs. 14 COLGATE (Patriot)
Indianapolis
7 Washington State vs. 10 TCU
2 Marquette vs. 15 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)

1-seed Houston

Kelvin-Sampson-reaches-out-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-staff-after-controversial-finish-Houston-Cougars-Greg-Byrne-Nate-Oats — Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Houston remains the No. 3 overall seed after a blowout loss against Iowa State raised some red flags. However, with a loss by North Carolina and Purdue, along with many of the 2-seed contenders, the Cougars remain steady based on their overall resume.

2-seed Marquette

Shaka Smart — © Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

A loss to UConn in the Big East championship game will not do much to hurt Marquette’s overall resume, although it could drop them in the pecking order of 2-seeds when determining which part of the bracket they will play in.