2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Updated Bracketology as blue bloods slip

The month of January is nearly over and the NCAA Tournament picture continues to take shape. Conference standings have also stabilized as weeks go by, providing a more clear bubble watch.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The conference schedule has provided plenty of ups and downs so far, with the latest surprising coming when tradition blue bloods like Arizona, Kansas and Kentucky took resume hits while questions about the at-large cases of Gonzaga and Texas gain clarity.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

All records and projections reflect game results through Jan. 25.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, Houston, UConn, Tennessee
Last four byes: Texas, Villanova, Mississippi State, Nebraska
Last four in: South Carolina, Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Providence
First four out: Nevada, Washington State, Northwestern, Kansas State

First Four (Dayton)

16 Lafayette (Patriot) vs. 16 Delaware State (MEAC)
16 Jackson State (SWAC) vs. 16 Central Connecticut (NEC)
11 South Carolina vs. 11 Wake Forest
12 Ole Miss vs. 12 Providence

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue vs. 16 Lafayette/Delaware State
8 St. John’s vs. 9 Indiana State (MVC)
Omaha
5 Marquette vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Iowa State vs. 13 Appalachian State (SBC)
Omaha
6 Michigan State vs. 11 Mississippi State
3 Kansas vs. 14 Morehead State (OVC)
Indianapolis
7 Colorado vs. 10 Texas
2 Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs. 15 South Dakota State (Summit)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue remains the top overall seed with a strong resume to back up the hype created this season. The Boilermakers still are not atop the Big Ten standings, but will have opportunities to further cement the spot against top-level competition.

2-seed Wisconsin

Wisconsin moves up onto the 2-seed line for the first time this season thanks to solid play and a spot atop the Big Ten standings. They continue to prove their worth on the court and in the computer numbers this season and will look to challenge Purdue the rest of the way.

West (Los Angeles)

Charlotte
1 Tennessee vs. 16 Central Connecticut/Jackson State
8 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 9 Colorado State
Spokane
5 SDSU vs. 12 Ole Miss/Providence
4 Baylor vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Salt Lake City
6 FAU (AAC) vs. 11 South Carolina/Wake Forest
3 BYU vs. 14 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
Salt Lake City
7 New Mexico vs. 10 Cincinnati
2 Arizona vs. 15 UC-Davis (Big West)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee continues to play well this season and makes a move from the 2-seed line to the 1-seed line in bracketology with Arizona slipping up in conference play. The Volunteers must continue picking up wins in the SEC and make a run at the conference championship to make a case to stay there.

2-seed Arizona

Arizona falls to the 2-seed line after an upset loss against Oregon State. The Wildcats might not have many resume-building opportunities left to build their bracketology standing, so a clean run could be important to stay among the top teams.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston vs. 16 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN)
8 Clemson vs. 9 Texas A&M
Spokane
5 Duke vs. 12 Oregon (Pac-12)
4 Creighton vs. 13 Drexel (CAA)
Pittsburgh
6 Texas Tech (Big 12) vs. 11 Princeton (Ivy)
3 Illinois vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
Memphis
7 Utah vs. 10 Villanova
2 Auburn vs. 15 Green Bay (Horizon)

1-seed Houston

Houston remains the top team in almost every computer ranking across college basketball, but stays just behind Purdue in bracketology without the same type of signature wins along the way. The Big 12 will certainly provide chances to make their case.

2-seed Auburn

Auburn remains on the 2-seed line despite a loss against in-state rival Alabama thanks in part to great computer numbers. The Tigers still have a solid case, coupled with plenty of chances to build momentum through SEC play.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 TCU vs. 9 Gonzaga
Brooklyn
5 Kentucky vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 Dayton (A-10) vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Pittsburgh
6 Oklahoma vs. 11 Nebraska
3 Alabama (SEC) vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Charlotte
7 Utah State (MWC) vs. 10 Florida
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 Sam Houston (CUSA)

1-seed UConn

UConn has found its rhythm atop the Big East standings as they show why many projected them to be in the mix for back-to-back national championships. The Huskies boast an impressive win streak which could gain them more attention as it grows.

2-seed North Carolina

North Carolina has found the groove many fans looked for over the past several seasons. The veteran core has led the Tar Heels to the top of the ACC standings and have the team looking like a real contender for a deep NCAA Tournament run.