2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Updated Bracketology after shuffle near top

On3 imageby:James Fletcher III02/09/24


Multiple Top 10 matchups in the same weekend and another flurry of upsets have created a shakeup near the top of the latest version of bracketology. Paired with more movement around the bubble, the NCAA Tournament picture takes on a new look.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

Houston slipped up against Kansas, which moved up the board as other top teams fell. Tennessee took care of business and saw its resume surpass Arizona and make them a 1-seed selection.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:


ESPN's Joe Lunardi doesn't see Kentucky as a No. 1-seed.
Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

All records and projections reflect game results through Feb. 8.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, Houston, UConn, Tennessee
Last four byes: Texas, Colorado, Wake Forest, Mississippi State
Last four in:  St. John’s, Texas A&M, Washington State, Northwestern
First four out: Ole Miss, Nevada, Nebraska, Kansas State

First Four (Dayton)

16 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN) vs. 16 Central Connecticut (NEC)
16 NCCU (MEAC) vs. 16 Grambling State (SWAC)
11 Texas A&M vs. 11 Washington State
11 St. John’s vs. 11 Northwestern

Midwest (Detroit)

1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 NCCU/Grambling State
8 TCU vs. 9 Gonzaga
5 Creighton vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Iowa State vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
6 SDSU vs. 11 Texas A&M/Washington State
3 Marquette vs. 14 Morehead State (OVC)
7 South Carolina vs. 10 Wake Forest
2 Kansas (Big 12) vs. 15 Green Bay (Horizon)

1-seed Purdue

EVANSTON, ILLINOIS – FEBRUARY 12: Zach Edey #15 of the Purdue Boilermakers celebrates a basket against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Welsh-Ryan Arena on February 12, 2023 in Evanston, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Purdue remains the top overall seed as they continue to lead the way in the Big Ten. They handled their toughest conference test so far against Wisconsin last weekend. The Boilermakers have retained the top resume in the country and show no signs of slowing down at this point.

2-seed Kansas

Kansas big man Hunter Dickinson hit the game-winning basket against TCU
Jay Biggerstaff | USA TODAY Sports

Kansas moved back onto the 2-line this week behind a resume-building win over Houston. However, the Jayhawks also suffered a loss against Kansas State which prevented them from potentially moving further up the board. Thanks to losses by other contenders, they were able to get back here.

West (Los Angeles)

1 Tennessee vs. 16 North Dakota (Summit)
8 Utah State (MWC) vs. 9 Virginia
5 Duke vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 Baylor vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Salt Lake City
6 New Mexico vs. 11 Mississippi State
3 BYU vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Salt Lake City
7 Indiana State (MVC) vs. 10 Texas
2 Arizona (Pac-12) vs. 15 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

1-seed Tennessee


Tennessee jumps up onto the 1-line after beating Kentucky in a Top 10 matchup last weekend and following it up with a dominant win against LSU. The overall resume has now surpassed Arizona, which is playing in an inferior conference and does not have as many opportunities to build the resume.

2-seed Arizona

Caleb Love-Arizona
Zachary BonDurant | USA TODAY Sports

Arizona drops off the 1-line and joins the group attempting to catch Tennessee with big wins the rest of the way. However, the struggle will remain strength of schedule given the struggles the Pac-12 has faced overall. The Wildcats have more chances to slip up than rise.

South (Dallas)

1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 Colorado State vs. 9 Florida
5 Oklahoma vs. 12 Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
4 Dayton (A-10) vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 Boise State (MWC)
3 Illinois vs. 14 Troy (CUSA)
7 Clemson vs. 10 Cincinnati
2 Auburn vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)

1-seed Houston

Mar 24, 2023; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson on the sideline during the second half of an NCAA tournament Midwest Regional semifinal at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Houston holds steady on the 1-line and just manages to hold onto the No. 2 overall seed in a tight race with UConn thanks to their dominant computer numbers. The Cougars will have chances to overcome the loss against Kansas, especially with the remaining number of Quad 1 opponents in the Big 12.

2-seed Auburn

denver-jones-auburn-basketball (1)
Denver Jones (Photo by Matt Rudolph/Auburn Live)

Auburn remains on the 2-line in this updated bracketology, picking up a needed Q1 win over in-state Alabama to cement themselves in the SEC regular season title picture and check off a needed box for the NCAA Tournament resume. The Tigers looked the part and could build on the performance.

East (Boston)

1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Eastern Kentucky/Central Connecticut
8 Michigan State vs. 9 Utah
5 Kentucky vs. 12 South Florida (AAC)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Cornell (Ivy)
6 Texas Tech vs. 11 St. John’s/Northwestern
3 Alabama (SEC) vs. 14 Vermont (AEC)
7 FAU vs. 10 Colorado
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 UNC-Wilmington (CAA)

1-seed UConn

Dan Hurley
LAS VEGAS, NV – MARCH 25: UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts to a call during the NCAA Division I Men’s Championship Elite Eight round basketball game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the UConn Huskies on March 25, 2023 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

UConn continues to build its resume and separate from the field this season. The Huskies move closer to Houston in the battle for overall seeding, but remain just behind due largely to computer numbers at this point. They will have time to wait out Houston losses and keep building with efficient play.

2-seed North Carolina

Armando Bacot and RJ Davis opted to return to North Carolina in 2023-24
Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina has been up and down over the past week, but the rivalry win over Duke is enough to hold them steady in the updated bracketology despite a loss against Clemson in Chapel Hill for just the second time ever. In a down year for the ACC, the Tar Heels must maintain a clean resume to stay on the 2-line.