College Football Playoff, New Year's Six bowl game projections: Georgia moves back to No. 1
The following are College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six bowl game projections as we enter week 7 of the 2023 college football season.
College Football Playoff projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Michigan
Last week, I slotted Alabama in the College Football Playoff not because I thought the Crimson Tide were dominant but because Georgia had been so inconsistent that it opened the door to the idea that a slow-starting Georgia could lose the SEC title game and then get shut out.
Then Georgia played Kentucky.
We now know that the Bulldogs have the same top gear that their 2021 and 2022 predecessors did. They can flat-out embarrass a good team and win without appearing to break a sweat. It wasn’t clear this Georgia team had that setting until Saturday. Now that we know it does, we can pretty comfortably predict another CFP appearance.
Meanwhile, I continue to pick Penn State to win the Big Ten just as I did in the preseason. Ohio State and Michigan will have their chances to talk me out of that prediction on the field. But it’s impossible to ignore the way Michigan has smashed every opponent. Yes, I’d love to see proof of concept against better competition. But a team that plays the same (great) way every time gets the benefit of the doubt.
If this matchup comes to fruition — be it in the semifinals or the national title game — it would be a great measuring stick for how far Michigan has come since losing to Georgia in the Orange Bowl following the 2021 season.
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma
We should have an idea on Oct. 21 if my faith in the Nittany Lions is prescient or foolish. That’s when they play Ohio State, and the Buckeyes could render these past few weeks of predictions laughable. Or Penn State could stymie Ohio State on the ground and Drew Allar could show how high Penn State’s ceiling is with him at QB.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma takes the CFP slot Texas previously occupied after beating the Longhorns in a classic version of the Red River Rivalry. My guess is the Sooners stay in these projections until December, when they’ll likely face the Longhorns again in the Big 12 title game. And the winner of that game likely gets slotted in the real CFP the next day.
Remaining New Year’s Six bowl games
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Alabama
The Seminoles jumped on Virginia Tech and then coasted to a win, but their wins against LSU and Clemson are not looking as impressive as they once did. If Florida State goes 13-0, it’s making the CFP. But if it slips up, it may land in the Orange Bowl.
Alabama, meanwhile, now has the inside track to reach the SEC title game in Atlanta after beating Texas A&M in College Station. The Crimson Tide can’t take another loss if they want to make the CFP, but this also doesn’t look like a team that can beat the version of Georgia we saw against Kentucky.
Cotton Bowl: Oregon vs. Texas
The Ducks can win their way into a different projection this week in Seattle, but no matter who wins, that winner will have to stay on guard if it wants to make the CFP. Oregon and Washington each have to play USC, Utah, Oregon State and Washington State.
The Longhorns likely will get another crack at the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. But even if they don’t win, they’d land in a quality bowl provided they don’t take any head-scratching losses along the way.
Peach Bowl: Ohio State vs. Louisville
Ohio State can play its way into a much better projection when Penn State comes to Columbus on Oct. 21, but to do that the Buckeyes probably will have to run the ball more consistently than they did Saturday against Maryland.
Louisville is new to these projections, but a glance at the remaining schedule suggests the Cardinals could stay here if not rise. Duke is the toughest ACC opponent left on the schedule. Kentucky is probably the toughest remaining opponent overall. First-year coach Jeff Brohm, a season removed from taking Purdue to the Big Ten title game, seems ready to take the Cardinals to some big games right out of the gate.
Fiesta Bowl: Wyoming vs. Washington
This projection continues to posit that the Pac-12 will cannibalize itself, but depending on how Washington’s clash with Oregon goes on Saturday, the winner could find itself projected in a semifinal next week.
Wyoming’s win against Fresno State gives the Cowboys a huge head-to-head win in the Mountain West race, but the challenges only grow as Wyoming goes to Colorado Springs to face Air Force next week. At the moment, the Mountain West champ looks like the most likely candidate to get the New Year’s Six spot reserved for the highest ranked Group of 5 champ. But Tulane may have something to say about that in the American.