Elite 11 Finals: Separating camp hype and full quarterback evaluations

The Elite 11 Finals is the most prestigious long-running summer showcase event in high school football recruiting. Since 1999, top quarterback prospects have been making the summer trek to the West Coast to throw alongside their touted peers. The 27th edition Elite 11 Finals will commence this week, with twenty of the nation’s top quarterbacks from the 2026 cycle set to participate.

From a national media perspective, there can be a heavy exposure bias towards quarterbacks selected for the Elite 11 Finals. Simply scoring an invite does not mean a quarterback should finish as a blue-chip prospect. Since 1999, around 23% of Elite 11 Finalists have been drafted (4.6 out of every 20), with 8% being first-rounders (1.6 out of every 20).

The event draws a bunch of interest from college football fans who are interested in how their favorite program’s quarterback commit performs throughout the week.

Given the amount of attention the Elite 11 Finals receives, it’s important to explain how we process and weigh the event’s importance, both in real time and in the big picture as we move towards the inaugural Rivals300 ranking in July.

Understanding the Elite 11 Finals format

For context, let’s first lay out the format of the Elite 11 Finals. This has been the schedule for the past several years:

Day 1: Drills – Quarterbacks are split into several groups and go through drill work at different stations. They are throwing routes-on-air to wide receivers or at targets. The day ends with a “Hole Shot Challenge” – a single elimination, knockout-style competition that is judged by the Elite 11 coaches.
Day 2: Pro Day – Each quarterback goes through the same 20-throw pro day script, throwing routes-on-air to receivers. On the other half of the field, quarterbacks participate in an accuracy challenge, throwing at targets.
Day 3: 7-on-7 – Each quarterback has a timed 7-on-7 session.

The Elite 11 Finals MVP and the Elite 11 (11 out of the 20 finalists) are named after Day 3.

How the Elite 11 Finals showcases quarterback traits

The Elite 11 Finals is the lone setting throughout the cycle where we see the majority of the nation’s top quarterbacks side by side. We can get a good sense of some of the physical tools. Sizes, frames, and body types are easy to compare when the group is all together in shirts and shorts.

The quarterbacks throw hundreds of passes over the three days of action. Seeing the group throw up close provides a great look at their current mechanics, arm strength, ball placement, and footwork. We usually come away with a good feel for the arm talent and level of polish.

The Elite 11 Finals is also a neutral, controlled setting with a performance component. All of the quarterbacks are throwing the same route concepts, in the same conditions, to the same receivers. The setting helps create a control environment with fewer variables than at any point in the evaluation process.

Given the format, any real-time ranking of the Elite 11 performances tends to be highly subjective. The Elite 11 Finals is very much an ‘eye of the beholder’ event. For On3, we factor in the ability and consistency of performance over the three days when determining Top Performers.

Why the Elite 11 Finals doesn’t show the whole picture

The Elite 11 Finals provides the best in-person evaluation opportunity for top quarterbacks to this point in the cycle. With that said, there are natural limitations in the camp setting when evaluating critical factors of top quarterback prospects.

Most importantly, there is little defensive presence over the three days at the Elite 11 Finals. The majority of the passes are on air with no defensive backs. The 7-on-7 session on Day 3 is the lone time we see defensive backs throughout the week.

Reaction to pressure and navigation against the pass rush are key skills for quarterbacks. The best quarterbacks are usually difficult to bring down in the pocket. The lack of a pass rush or physical contact element at the Elite 11 leaves these critical skills to be evaluated in pads on Friday nights.

The primary athletic component we see at the Elite 11 Finals is footwork and movement on some throws designed to be outside the pocket. We don’t see any rushing ability, which has never been more important at the position than it is right now. That key skill is also evaluated on Friday nights.

Even though we watch the quarterbacks throw hundreds of passes at the Elite 11 Finals, it’s important to remember that this is just three days in a multi-year evaluation process. We also aren’t privy to the mental work and chalk talk sessions with the Elite 11 staff behind the scenes.

The selection challenges: Why some future stars miss out

Generally speaking, the Elite 11 staff does a great job of getting the majority of the most touted quarterback prospects to the Finals. With that said, some dynamics make the selection process imperfect.

The staff is picking just 20 quarterbacks, which in the large scheme is less than one-third of the quarterbacks who sign with Power 4 programs. Quarterbacks must attend an Elite 11 Regional to land an invite to the Finals. Former top quarterback prospects like Texas’s Arch Manning and Michigan’s Bryce Underwood did not attend an Elite 11 regional.

Like college programs that have to make evaluations on an accelerated schedule, the Elite 11 staff is selecting the Elite 11 Finals roster before the senior season. This creates a significant challenge and leaves the door open for senior risers to miss out on invites.

Two of the top quarterbacks in college football fall into this bucket. Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers both had massive senior seasons and finished as On3’s No. 7 and No. 8 quarterback prospects in the 2023 cycle. Leavitt was uncommitted and had just a few Power 4 offers at the time of his regional workout, while Sellers was committed to Syracuse. In a vacuum, both regional workouts deserved an invite to the Elite 11 Finals. While promising, neither had a junior season that would strike major conviction. Sellers only played four games due to injury, and Leavitt’s junior production was solid, but not great. Had the Elite 11 staff been able to see their senior seasons unfold, both would’ve been lock invites and widely considered two of the top signal callers in the cycle. The same applies to current NFL quarterbacks like Jaxson Dart and Brock Purdy.

Solely evaluating within the camp setting can skew towards prospects who are polished over those who have more inherent talent and upside. Three of the top four quarterbacks in the NFL – Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow attended Elite 11 Regionals, but were not invited to the Elite 11 Finals. Despite being great players on Friday nights, none of the three were hyped prospects or overly coached up in working through the camp setting. Mahomes and Burrow spent much more time playing other sports than working with private quarterback coaches.

The Elite 11 staff has since tweaked their selection process, with high school film accounting for a significant part of their evaluation. As a result, the hit rate has increased in recent years.

Around half of the projected starting quarterbacks in the NFL were Elite 11 Finalists, with most coming in recently. It’s a good track record, but the nature of development at the position and the constraints of the selection process make future top signal callers falling through the cracks an inevitability.

Elite 11 Finals can spark breakouts—but it’s just part of the process

Taking a big picture view is important when placing the Elite 11 Finals in the proper context.

The Elite 11 Finals is a key in-person evaluation point for the finalists before the senior season. Ultimately, play on Friday nights continues to be the best indicator of future success.

There are occasions where a great showing at the Elite 11 Finals can preclude a huge senior season. CJ Stroud is a great example. Stroud entered the Elite 11 Finals in 2019 with just a handful of Power 4 offers. He had a great week and was named Elite 11 MVP. Stroud carried that positive momentum into his senior season. His play took off, and he added a ton of big offers before signing with Ohio State and finishing as a five-star prospect.

Last year, we saw Alabama’s Keelon Russell and Cal’s Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele carry strong showings at the Elite 11 Finals into monster senior seasons.

On the other hand, Florida’s DJ Lagway serves as a good example of the importance of context with the Elite 11 Finals. Lagway did not have his best week and did not light up the 7-on-7 portion of the event. He went on to have a huge senior season and finished as On3’s No. 1 quarterback and No. 2 overall prospect in the 2024 cycle.

In reality, many future top draft picks fall somewhere in the middle. Before becoming No. 1 overall picks, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, and Jared Goff all had good showings but were not named Elite 11 MVP in their respective years. The same could be said for highly drafted players like Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels (limited by an injury).

As difficult as it can be in real time, we must remember that the Elite 11 Finals is just a piece of the puzzle. When viewed through the right lens, what we see on the ground in Los Angeles can, on occasion, foretell senior season success, which is the strongest indicator of a quarterback’s ability.