Final Four breakdown: A look at Saturday’s semifinals
Roughly five months after the season started in early November, we’re down to the Final Four and the last three games of the season.
Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski has taken the spotlight at the Final Four because his career is ending, but there are storylines galore beyond Coach K. Five of the biggest:
+ North Carolina’s Hubert Davis is the 10th coach to reach the Final Four in his first season, and is trying to become the second coach to win it all in his first trip (joining Michigan’s Steve Fisher, in 1989).
+ Villanova lost starting guard Justin Moore to an Achilles injury in the region final win over Houston, and the depth-shy Wildcats will try to make do without their second-leading scorer. Stepping into Moore’s starting role will be senior Caleb Daniels, a New Orleans native who began his college career at Tulane — whose campus is about 2½ miles from the Superdome — before transferring to Villanova after the 2018-19 season.
+ Kansas is the lone No. 1 seed at the Final Four, and Jayhawks coach Bill Self is trying to become the 16th coach with at least two national titles. It’s been 14 years since he won his first. Among the coaches who have won at least two, the only longer span between first and second titles is Rick Pitino, at 17 years (1996 at Kentucky, 2013 at Louisville).
+ The national semifinal will be the third meeting this season between Duke and North Carolina, with each winning on the other’s home court. UNC beat Duke on March 5 in Krzyzewski’s finale at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Blue Devils players seemed almost overwhelmed by the moment and wilted in the second half. The rubber match has even higher stakes.
+ This is the sixth Final Four in New Orleans and each of the preceding five has been quite memorable; this is the 40th anniversary of the first Final Four in New Orleans and that one might’ve been the most momentous of all. Krzyzewski’s retirement means this one will be memorable; elevating it would be Coach K winning it all in his final game, like UCLA’s John Wooden in 1975 and Marquette’s Al McGuire in 1977.
Here’s a quick breakdown of each national semifinal.
Kansas (32-6) vs. Villanova (30-7)
Time/TV: 6:09 p.m., TBS (the livestream broadcast is here)
Announcers: Jim Nantz play-by-play, Grant Hill and Bill Raftery analysts
The line: Kansas by 4.5
Final Four appearances: Kansas is making its 16th appearance, with national titles in 1952, 1988 and 2008. Villanova is making its seventh appearance, with national titles in 1985, 2016 and 2018.
How they got to the Final Four: Villanova won the South Region as the No. 2 seed. The Wildcats def. No. 15 Delaware 80-60, def. No. 7 Ohio State 71-61, def. No. 11 Michigan 63-55, def. No. 5 Houston 50-44. Kansas won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. The Jayhawks def. No. 16 Texas Southern 83-56, def. No. 9 Creighton 79-72, def. No. 4 Providence 66-61, def. No. 10 Miami 76-50.
The buzz: Kansas has looked outright bad at times in each of the past three games, but the Jayhawks regained their footing in each game and won. Against Miami, KU was dominant in the second half, and if that carries over to the Final Four, the Jayhawks are winning it all. Kansas has the size advantage against Villanova and the Jayhawks need to make sure that pays off; Villanova has been outrebounded in each of its past three games, and while that almost certainly happens again, the Wildcats need to make sure they don’t let the Jayhawks own the offensive boards. Kansas G Remy Martin missed 10 games this season with an injury, but he has been huge in the NCAA tournament with 67 points. That is, by far, his most-productive four-game stretch of the season. His offense has been important because Big 12 player of the year Ochai Agbaji has disappeared on that end of the court for long stretches in the tournament, though he did have a big game against Miami. Villanova’s title hopes took a big hit when Moore was lost with an Achilles injury. That means a team that lacked depth anyway basically has none now; the first two guys off the bench for ’Nova now are Bryan Antoine and Chris Arcidiacono, and they have scored a combined 81 points this season. A bit more than 46 percent of Villanova’s shot attempts this season have been 3-pointers, but KU’s perimeter defense is excellent. Will the Wildcats hit from beyond the arc against KU? The free-throw shooting disparity is large. Villanova hits 83.0 percent of its free throws, which would be an NCAA single-season record; Kansas makes 71.9 percent, which is in the middle of the pack nationally.
Duke (32-6) vs. North Carolina (28-9)
Time/TV: About 8:45 p.m., TBS (the livestream broadcast is here)
Announcers: Jim Nantz play-by-play, Grant Hill and Bill Raftery analysts
The line: Duke by 4
Final Four appearances: Duke is making its 17th appearance, with national titles in 1991, 1992, 2001, 2010 and 2015. North Carolina is making its 21st appearance, with national titles in 1957, 1982, 2005, 2009 and 2017.
How they got to the Final Four: Duke won the West Region as the No. 2 seed. The Blue Devils def. No. 15 Cal State Fullerton 78-61, def. No. 7 Michigan State 85-76, def. No. 3 Texas Tech 78-73, def. No. 4 Arkansas 78-69; North Carolina won the East Region as the No. 8 seed. The Heels def. No. 9 Marquette 95-63, def. No. 1 Baylor 93-86 (OT), def. No. 4 UCLA 73-66, def. No. 15 Saint Peter’s 69-49.
The buzz: This will be the fifth consecutive game for Duke players knowing that their next loss ends Krzyzewski’s career. It certainly hasn’t negatively impacted them, especially in the past three. As Duke showed against defense-minded Texas Tech and Arkansas, it has an elite offense; the Blue Devils shredded Tech’s defense, which is the best in the nation per kenpom.com metrics. The offense is headed by 6-foot-10 freshman F Paolo Banchero, who is playing with a high level of confidence and hitting shots from everywherere. There are able complements, too. Keep an eye on 7-0 C Mark Williams’ offensive contributions. He has scored 58 points in the past four games, and his recent aggressiveness has added a different element to the offense. In addition, sophomore PG Jeremy Roach is playing the best basketball of his Duke career. While Duke’s offense will test UNC’s defense, which has been noticeably better since mid-February, the Tar Heels’ offense will be by far the best Duke has seen in the tournament. Plus, there’s the memory of the regular-season finale, when UNC scored at will in the second half. UNC can do damage in the low post with Armando Bacot (mediocre in the first game vs. the Blue Devils, dominant in the second) and from the perimeter with Caleb Love, Brady Manek and R.J. Davis. Manek, especially, has been dangerous from beyond the arc in the tournament, going 16-of-34 in the four games. Love is 15-of-40, but he made six 3-pointers in a game twice in the tournament.