If CFP committee has same opinion of Cincinnati as oddsmakers ...

No matter where unbeaten Cincinnati lands in the initial College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night, there will remain an open question: Can this AAC team really compete against the big-name heavyweights that will surround them in the rankings?

Oddsmakers say the No. 2 Bearcats (8-0) would be underdogs — sizable underdogs in some cases — against most of the other marquee teams in playoff contention. When the initial rankings are unveiled, one of the most intriguing storylines will center on whether Cincinnati is in the top four. The Bearcats are trying to become the first Group of 5 team to earn a spot in the CFP, which began in 2014. 

Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations at DraftKings, provided the following hypothetical point spreads to On3 on Monday, under the conditions that these games are played on neutral fields with each team’s respective active roster.

Avello said top-ranked Georgia would be a 15.5-point favorite over the Bearcats. While the wide margin isn’t necessarily a surprise — especially given the dominance of Georgia’s defense — it’s still striking to consider the perceived massive gap between the nation’s top two teams in the Associated Press poll.

It gets more interesting with hypothetical matchups against once-beaten Alabama and Ohio State. Third-ranked Alabama, which suffered its only loss at Texas A&M, would be a 13-point favorite against Cincinnati, which has scuffled a bit in its past two games (against Navy and Tulane, which are a combined 3-13). And sixth-ranked Ohio State, whose lone loss came at home against Oregon on September 11, would be a nine-point favorite against the Bearcats.

No. 4 Oklahoma, which has looked vulnerable in several games — including against lowly Kansas — would be a 1.5-point favorite against the Bearcats. Avello said Cincinnati would be a 3.5-point favorite against Oregon. Despite its victory in Columbus, the seventh-ranked Ducks likely need plenty of help from others — in addition to winning out — to break the Pac-12’s playoff drought.

It is important to note that betting operators do not offer lines to predict the outcome of games. Rather, point spreads are established in hopes of enticing fans to bet equal money on each side. In other words, it’s a gauge of public perception of a particular matchup. And, according to these lines, the Bearcats would be significant underdogs against several blue-blood schools also in the mix for the four-team playoff. We’ll find out Tuesday night how the CFP committee views the Bearcats.

The concern for Cincinnati fans is that, even if the Bearcats run the table, its placement in the initial rankings could be the high-water mark. The toughest remaining matchups on the schedule are a home game against No. 23 SMU on November 20 and the AAC Championship Game, almost certainly against either SMU or Houston. Those victories will only bolster the Bearcats’ body of work so much. 

On the other hand, Alabama will visit No. 12 Auburn on November 27, then could cement a CFP berth by beating Georgia in the SEC title game. Ohio State and No. 5 Michigan State have challenging paths ahead — including playing each other in Columbus on November 20 — before the Big Ten Championship Game. And Oklahoma can make or break its case when it finishes the regular season with a trio of tough games: at No. 14 Baylor, vs. Iowa State and at No. 11 Oklahoma State. The Sooners potentially could play one of those teams again in the conference championship game.