NCAA Baseball Tournament: Midseason Field of 64 Projections

Jonathan Wagner

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We are more than halfway done with the regular season in college baseball. While there’s a lot of baseball still to be played, it’s time to take an early look at how the postseason could take shape with our first Field of 64 projections of the season.

This year has been an interesting one to say the least. Two preseason top five teams – LSU and TCU – are on the tournament bubble as of April 8. Two other preseason top five teams – Wake Forest and Florida – are not projected to host a regional.

Some of college baseball’s most consistent powers have struggled this season, too. Texas made the field, but as our last team in. UCLA and Stanford, two storied college baseball programs, are both already out of the picture.

These projections will undoubtedly change throughout the remaining weeks of the regular season, but it’s time to look ahead to the postseason. Here are our initial 2024 Field of 64 projections, beginning with the last teams in and first teams out.

Bubble Watch

Last Four In: LSU, Illinois, NC State, Texas
First Four Out: Maryland, Kennesaw State, TCU, Campbell
Next Four Out: Rutgers, Louisville, Indiana, UNC Wilmington

* denotes automatic bid

Fayetteville Regional

Jun 22, 2022; Omaha, NE, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks starting pitcher Hagen Smith (33) pitches against the Ole Miss Rebels during the first inning at Charles Schwab Field. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports

1. Arkansas (1)*
2. Oklahoma
3. Lamar*
4. Navy*

Arkansas looks to be the top team in the country, and they take the top spot in our initial field with a 27-3 record that includes 11-1 in the SEC. If the Razorbacks make it through the SEC gauntlet, they’re an essential lock to be a top seed. Joining Arkansas in Fayetteville is Oklahoma, Lamar and Navy.

Orlando Regional

1. UCF (16)*
2. Florida
3. NC State
4. Stetson*

Not many people had their eyes on UCF entering the season. As of now, they are 21-8 and sit at No. 3 in RPI. The top of the Big 12 has struggled this season, but UCF is on track to host right now. Florida was in the hosting discussion for most of the season, despite their midweek struggles. But being swept last weekend by Missouri has the Gators in trouble. With their RPI at No. 31, Florida will need to get on a serious roll to get back in the hosting picture. UCF and Florida are joined by NC State and Stetson.

Clemson Regional

Cam Cannarella-Clemson-UCF — (Clemsonbaseball/Twitter)

1. Clemson (2)*
2. Northeastern*
3. Georgia Southern
4. Saint Thomas*

Clemson looks like the class of the ACC right now, though it won’t be easy down the stretch. The Tigers are currently 28-3, 10-2 in the ACC, and have the No. 1 RPI in the nation. Joining Clemson in their regional is Northeastern, Georgia Southern and Saint Thomas.

Irvine Regional

1. UC Irvine (15)*
2. Oregon
3. San Diego
4. Grand Canyon*

UC Irvine has been very impressive thus far, with a 24-4 record including 10-2 in the Big West. Their RPI currently sits at No. 17, which should be good enough to host if it holds up down the stretch. The Anteaters draw Oregon, San Diego and Grand Canyon in the Irvine Regional in our Field of 64.

College Station Regional

Braden Montgomery A&M — © Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

1. Texas A&M (3)
2. Louisiana*
3. Texas Tech
4. Bowling Green*

Texas A&M is right there with Clemson and Arkansas at the top of the country. The Aggies are 28-4 and 8-4 in the SEC, with a top six RPI. The SEC will be a gauntlet, but if Texas A&M keeps playing well, they are a lock to be a top eight host. Also in College Station is Louisiana, Texas Tech and Bowling Green.

Lincoln Regional

Brett Sears — © Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK

1. Nebraska (14)*
2. Indiana State*
3. Mississippi State
4. Rider*

Nebraska has come on as of late as a surprise contender, and the Cornhuskers would be hosting a regional if the season ended today. The Big Ten is interesting, but Nebraska is currently 5-1 in conference play (and 22-7 overall) with a No. 18 RPI. They do not get an easy draw in our Field of 64 projections though, as they are joined by Indiana State, Mississippi State and Rider.

Corvallis Regional

Jun 12, 2022; Corvallis, OR, USA; Oregon State Beavers infielder Travis Bazzana (37) is congratulated by third base coach Ryan Gipson as he circles the bases after his home run in the 4th inning during Game 2 of a NCAA Super Regional game at Coleman Field. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

1. Oregon State (4)*
2. Southern Miss
3. Portland*
4. Fresno State*

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Oregon State earn a top three overall seed when it’s all said and done, and they slot in at No. 4 right now. The Beavers have a dominant offense and are 26-4 overall and 8-3 in the Pac-12 with RPI at No. 10. They are joined in Corvallis by Southern Miss, Portland and Fresno State.

Dallas Regional

Miguel Santos — © NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

1. Dallas Baptist (13)*
2. Oklahoma State
3. UC Santa Barbara
4. VCU*

Dallas Baptist has spent some time in the top ten this season, and for good reason as they are 25-6 overall and 6-3 in CUSA. They’ll need to come back to win the CUSA regular season, but if they do while maintaining a top 20 RPI, they’ll likely be on the right side of the hosting picture. Another team that could sneak into the conversation joins them in Oklahoma State, in addition to UC Santa Barbara and VCU.

Knoxville Regional

christian-moore — Credit: Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

1. Tennessee (5)
2. Creighton*
3. Arizona
4. Bryant*

Currently 7-5 in the SEC, Tennessee has largely played well this season at 26-6 overall. The Vols sit at No. 11 in RPI as of today, and would be a lock to host if they take care of business the rest of the way. They are joined in the Knoxville Regional by Creighton, Arizona and Bryant in what could be an exciting field.

Durham Regional

Jonathan Santucci — Credit: Duke Athletics

1. Duke (12)
2. Alabama
3. James Madison
4. USC Upstate*

Duke has looked like a top five team at times this season, and they could certainly play their way back into that conversation if they finish towards the top of the ACC. The Blue Devils are currently No. 16 in RPI, though that’s likely to improve the rest of the way should they keep winning. Duke is joined in Durham by Alabama, James Madison and USC Upstate.

Chapel Hill Regional

Vance Honeycutt — David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

1. North Carolina (6)
2. Coastal Carolina
3. St. John’s
4. Sacred Heart*

Even after losing this past weekend’s series in Virginia, UNC looks to be a very high seed as of now. With the No. 4 RPI paired with a 26-6 overall record and a 11-4 mark in the ACC, the Tar Heels are on track to be a top eight host. Joining UNC in Chapel Hill in our Field of 64 is Coastal Carolina, St. John’s and Sacred Heart.

Nashville Regional

vanderbilt-baseball-unveils-2023-sec-tournament-championship-rings — (Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

1. Vanderbilt (11)
2. Virginia Tech
3. Illinois
4. Tennessee Tech*

Vanderbilt’s season began as a bit of a rollercoaster, but they are back on track now. Sitting at 25-7 overall and 8-4 in the SEC, the Commodores sit at No. 15 in RPI. They could finish higher depending on how their run through the SEC goes, but 10-12 feels like the right range for Vanderbilt. Also slotting in Nashville is Virginia Tech, who was in the hosting picture heading into last week. Illinois and Tennessee Tech round it out.

Greenville Regional

Cliff Godwin — Photo via Rob Goldberg/ECU Athletics.

1. East Carolina (7)*
2. Georgia
3. West Virginia
4. Samford*

ECU’s margin of error is thin in the AAC, but it would be hard to deny the Pirates of a top eight seed right now. They will need to catch UTSA and win the AAC, but if they do, ECU is very likely to be bringing a regional back to Greenville. It’s not an easy draw, though, as Georgia, West Virginia and Samford also slot in here.

Tallahassee Regional

Daniel Cantu — © Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

1. Florida State (10)
2. South Carolina
3. Texas
4. Florida A&M*

With how Florida State started the season, they were a surefire host in our first Field of 64. The Seminoles are 26-5, 7-5 in the ACC, and No. 3 in RPI as of right now. They won’t have it easy in the ACC, but if they keep winning they are very likely to be hosting in the postseason. Also coming to Tallahassee is South Carolina, Texas and Florida A&M.

Lexington Regional

Kentucky RHP Mason Moore throws the ball — Photo by Dr. Michael Huang | Kentucky Sports Radio

1. Kentucky (8)
2. Wake Forest
3. Utah
4. Northern Kentucky*

Just like last season, Kentucky is opening some eyes with how they’ve started SEC play. Sitting at 27-4 overall and 11-1 in the SEC, the Wildcats are No. 5 in RPI. The schedule will get tougher down the stretch in the SEC, but right now Kentucky is deserving of a top eight seed. They are joined by preseason No. 1 Wake Forest, in addition to Utah and Northern Kentucky.

Charlottesville Regional

Griff O'Ferrall — (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

1. Virginia (9)
2. Kansas State
3. LSU
4. Columbia*

Virginia just finished a series victory over UNC, but finish just on the outside of a top eight seed in our Field of 64. This range of hosts is very tight, though, so Virginia has a legitimate path to a top eight. They are joined by Kansas State, LSU and Columbia in Charlottesville. LSU, the defending national champions, finds themselves on the bubble and in serious danger at midseason after a 3-9 start to SEC play.