NCAA Tournament bubble: Stock up, stock down, conference breakdown

As the conference schedule continues and the bubble shrinks to a manageable level, it is time to start looking at what each team must do in order to solidify their NCAA Tournament resume. With an unprecedented number of upsets, the potential list of teams has remained large.

Some teams in the bubble conversation have taken advantage of the schedule recently and solidified their position while others have let opportunities slip away and fallen into the debate of worthy teams battling for the final NCAA Tournament bids.

At this point in the season, the line between bubble teams and teams considered ‘in the field’ can fluctuate from week to week – generally shrinking as time goes along.

For now, teams in the conversation for a 7-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 8-line and 9-line might be lumped in with the bubble teams which need more good results over the next month.

Read the latest edition of On3’s Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams still in the NCAA Tournament bubble picture.

Stock Up

Virginia (34)

Virginia dipped to No. 65 in the NET rankings between December and January after a rough stretch which included a 2-4 record with a Q3 loss and a pair of Q4 wins. Since that time, they are 7-0 with a Q1 win and three Q2 wins along the way.

The Cavaliers now boast a 2-2 record in Q1, with just one loss outside of the first two quadrants. Based on current numbers, they have three more Q1 opportunities and several Q2 chances to further improve the resume with few banana peels they cannot afford to slip on.

South Carolina (41)

Despite a solid resume in the non-conference portion of the schedule, which included just one loss against Q1 Clemson, many poked holes in the team’s ability to survive the SEC schedule. Q1 wins over Kentucky and Tennessee have flipped how people talk about them over past weeks and driven up the analytic numbers as well.

The Gamecocks have no shortage of Q1 opportunities left on the schedule and have few games which put their one-loss mark across Q3 and Q4 at risk of getting worse. Picking up just a few of the remaining resume-builders should be plenty for a team which only carries three losses into the final nine games.

Washington State (42)

Washington State was barely on the radar of teams with more to do just a month ago when they had won just one game outside of the bottom two quadrants. Now they are 7-5 in Q1 and Q2 with just one Q3 loss on the resume. The rapid rise was paired with a huge jump from No. 72 in the NET rankings a short time ago.

The Cougars biggest challenge will be maintaining the goodwill they have built up with computers. The teams around them will almost all have more Q1 opportunities – only road games against Oregon and Arizona can help them now – in a weak Pac-12.

Wake Forest (32)

Just hours ago, Wake Forest was ranked No. 42 in the NET rankings, and it was less than a week ago that they spent multiple days ranked in the 50s. Not only that, but the team started at No. 133 when the first rankings released in December. Perhaps no bubble team has risen more than those 101 spots since.

The Demon Deacons have accumulated the necessary computer numbers now, and need to add at least a couple Q1 win to the resume out of the upcoming chances to seal the deal on an NCAA Tournament bid.

Gonzaga (28)

Gonzaga is one of the biggest risers in the bubble conversation… but not for the same reason as other teams mentioned to this point. They have seen a massive spike in the computer numbers based primarily on the changing perception of games more than a month in the rear-view. Going from No. 57 to No. 28 in the matter of weeks without a new Q1 win is almost unheard of, but it happened.

The Bulldogs might not be off the bubble entirely thanks to this shift in the data, but it is hard to imagine the committee leaving out a blue blood which ranks inside the Top 30 of the NET. The Gonzaga schedule includes three more Q1 opportunities to get a win, and one might be enough.

Stock Down

Memphis (79)

Memphis had moved up to No. 26 in the NET rankings and was at one point a Top 10 team in the AP Poll, but the numbers continue to plummet well below the line of NCAA Tournament teams after massive struggles against AAC competition cost them. Pairing with a collapse of the teams which would be considered the best resume-building wins has turned them into an outsider looking in.

The Tigers still have at least a couple Q1 opportunities to right the ship and fix the computer numbers. But a team which looked like a regional host is now struggling to beat teams ranked in the 200s of the NET, making them hard to bet on.

Villanova (45)

Villanova lost five straight games and six of seven before beating Providence over the weekend. The Wildcats have been wildly inconsistent all season, making them a difficult team to evaluate on the bubble. While the losing streak came against quality opponents, they also have three Q3 losses.

Villanova still has plenty of Q1 opportunities left on the schedule but a pair of matchups against Georgetown give them more room for a slip up too. They likely need to prove they can still beat the best teams over the next month in order to stay in the NCAA Tournament conversation.

Texas A&M (51)

This Texas A&M team was highly-rated coming into the season but has slowly slipped down the rankings. They still have not won three-straight games since mid-November. A 4-4 record in Q1 is good enough to get in the conversation but two Q3 losses leave more to be done.

The Aggies still have several Q1 opponents left on the schedule, but three of them come on the road. Stringing together wins will be the most important thing for this team the rest of the season, even though the schedule could make it more difficult than it sounds.

Nevada (46)

Nevada started out as one of the highest-rated teams in the Mountain West. They have lost four games against conference foes over recent weeks and more importantly taken a hit in the computer rankings. A win over conference leaders Utah State got things headed back in the right direction with a 10-spot jump in the NET on Wednesday morning.

The Wolfpack still have plenty of resume-building chances left to get their numbers in order against the strong competition within the Mountain West. They will need to build on the 4-4 record in Q1 and Q2 and avoid adding to the one loss in Q3.

Conference Breakdown

ACC
In the field: Duke (21), North Carolina (10), Clemson (31)
On the bubble: Virginia (34), Wake Forest (32)
More to do: Virginia Tech (54)

Big 12
In the field: Baylor (15), BYU (8), Houston (1), Iowa State (9), Kansas (12), Oklahoma (27), TCU (37), Texas Tech (36)
On the bubble: Cincinnati (33), Texas (38)
More to do: Kansas State (77)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (14), Michigan State (24), Purdue (2), Wisconsin (13)
On the bubble: Nebraska (52), Northwestern (60)
More to do: N/A

SEC
In the field: Alabama (5), Auburn (7), Kentucky (23), Tennessee (6), South Carolina (41)
On the bubble: Florida (39), Mississippi State (44), Ole Miss (61), Texas A&M (51)
More to do: N/A

Pac-12
In the field: Arizona (3)
On the bubble: Colorado (30), Utah (35), Washington State (42)
More to do: Oregon (57)

MWC
In the field: Colorado State (26), New Mexico (19), SDSU (20), Utah State (29)
On the bubble: Boise State (40), Nevada (46)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (17), Marquette (11), UConn (4)
On the bubble: Providence (58), St. John’s (43), Villanova (45)
More to do: Butler (50), Xavier (48)

Others
In the field: Dayton (16), FAU (25), Indiana State (22), St. Mary’s (18)
On the bubble: Gonzaga (28), Memphis (79)
More to do: Bradley (56), Drake (55), Princeton (53), SMU (49)

() reflects NET Ranking as of Feb. 7.