NCAA Tournament regional hosting picture: Latest Field of 64 predictions reveal notable changes

The last week of college baseball has pretty drastically impacted the race to hosting a regional in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. After we released our second official Field of 64 predictions of the season on Monday, it’s time to dive further into the race for the top 16 seeds.

16 teams will host a regional in the NCAA Tournament. The winner of each four-team field will advance to Super Regionals to play in a best-of-three tournament with a trip to the College World Series in Omaha on the line. The top eight overall seeds will host super regionals, should they advance out of their regional.

This week, it feels like the hosting picture got a bit crowded. We had a new top overall seed after Arkansas and Clemson both lost their respective weekend series, with Texas A&M up to No. 1. We also predicted three new teams hosting a regional, and there were plenty more right on the cusp.

Let’s dive into the race to hosting. It’s a competitive race, and feels more competitive now than it was in previous weeks. There’s undoubtedly more than 16 teams vying for those coveted spots.

Likely locks for top eight regional host

Texas A&M, Clemson, Arkansas, Florida State, Kentucky, North Carolina

Despite some movement within the top three in this week’s field, Texas A&M, Clemson and Arkansas remain pretty comfortable top three overall seeds. Texas A&M (No. 2 RPI) is currently 32-4 overall and 11-4 in the SEC, and move up to the top overall spot. Arkansas dropped to No. 6 in RPI after dropping its series to Alabama, but remain in a good spot to host as a top seed. The Razorbacks are 30-5 overall and 12-3 in the SEC. Clemson also lost its series, falling to NC State, but the Tigers are at No. 1 in RPI with a 29-6 overall record and 11-4 in the ACC.

Behind them, there’s still a pretty strong group of teams. Florida State sits at No. 3 in RPI right now with a 30-5 record that includes a 10-5 clip in the ACC. Kentucky (No. 4 RPI) continues to surge, sitting at 30-5 and 14-1 in the SEC. North Carolina rounds out the top five in RPI with a 29-7 record and a 14-4 mark in the ACC. Those three are right there with the top three, and all six are in a very comfortable position to be a top eight national seed in the NCAA Tournament right now.

Other potential top eight seeds

Oregon State, Tennessee, Virginia, East Carolina

Oregon State feels like they should be in the above group, but the Beavers currently sit No. 13 in RPI despite a 29-5 overall record that includes 10-4 in the Pac-12. If Oregon State keeps winning, they are going to be a top eight seed. But if they stumble even a little bit, or start winning two out of three more often than they sweep, they could have trouble making up ground in RPI.

Tennessee also feels like a pretty comfortable top eight seed right now. The Vols are 30-6 and 10-5 in the SEC and sit at No. 7 in RPI. But playing in the SEC is a grind, and they’ll have to keep winning to hold off the teams behind them. The Vols’ remaining weekends are at Kentucky, vs. Missouri, vs. Florida, at Vanderbilt, vs. South Carolina. Plenty of opportunity to solidify their top eight status.

Virginia and East Carolina are just outside of the top eight picture right now, slotting in at No. 9 and No. 10, respectively. Virginia is currently 28-8, 11-7 in the ACC, and No. 9 in RPI. They do have a manageable ACC schedule down the stretch, but the loaded nature of the current top eight has Virginia just on the outside. ECU was a top eight seed last week, but falls to No. 10 after a 4-1 week. The simple nature is the Pirates have to essentially be perfect and sweep weekends to avoid the RPI hits that come with even single losses in the AAC.

Currently hosting a regional

Wake Forest, Indiana State, Duke, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, UC Irvine

Wake Forest is right back in the hosting picture, and bring a regional back to Winston-Salem in our new predictions. The Demon Deacons are back into the top ten in RPI, and sit at 24-11 overall and 9-9 in the ACC. If they keep winning, they’ll be a hard team to deny a top 16 seed. Indiana State is also a new host for us this week. The Sycamores are No. 8 in RPI right now, and are projected to finish right in that range as well. They are unlikely to sneak into the top eight picture, but it would be pretty surprising at this point if they didn’t host.

The third new host for us this week is West Virginia. The Mountaineers are red hot and finally have JJ Wetherholt back healthy. They are 22-13 and 11-4 in the Big 12, and will surely be in the hosting picture if they win the Big 12. Even with a current RPI of No. 27, West Virginia projects to rise, as long as they keep winning.

Duke is another ACC team currently hosting, even with a potentially concerning RPI at No. 25. The Blue Devils need that to improve just a little bit, and they’ll have every opportunity to make that happen down the stretch. Vanderbilt is in a similar boat, sitting at No. 17 in RPI after being swept by Texas A&M over the weekend. The Commodores will have plenty of chances to solidify their position, and currently would get the nod as a host.

UC Irvine held onto the final regional hosting site in this week’s predictions. They are 25-7 and 11-4 in the Big West, but now sit at No. 21 in RPI. Similarly to East Carolina above, UC Irvine might just run into an RPI issue in the Big West. UC Irvine’s final five weekend opponents currently sit No. 238, No. 271, No. 124, No. 178, No. 201 and No. 74 in RPI. They can’t afford many losses in that stretch, even if they are winning the series.

Still in play

South Carolina, Nebraska, Coastal Carolina, Oklahoma State, Alabama, Dallas Baptist, Virginia Tech, Georgia, UCF, Oklahoma

Nebraska (RPI No. 16), UCF (RPI No. 14) and Dallas Baptist (RPI No. 24) were hosting for us last week, but fall out of top 16 range after each lost their weekends. All remain in play, though. Also in play is a pretty large group of teams, including three from the SEC. South Carolina has had ups and downs this year, but the Gamecocks are 8-7 in the SEC and No. 15 in RPI. Alabama is coming off of a big series win over Arkansas, and is up to No. 18 in RPI. They are just 6-9 in the SEC, though, so they’ll need to keep winning. Georgia is all the way up at No. 11 in RPI, and 7-8 in the SEC. They’ll need to keep winning series, and that RPI will have them right in the thick of the hosting conversation.

Oklahoma is an interesting team in the picture. The Sooners have spent some time in the top 25 this season, but have been on the outside as of late. They currently sit at No. 19 in RPI with an 11-4 Big 12 record. They might have to win the conference to get the nod, but the path is certainly there for the Sooners. Similarly, Coastal Carolina is No. 22 in RPI and 9-6 in the Sun Belt. They’ll have to catch Louisiana in the Sun Belt race, but even if they don’t, the Chanticleers could play their way into the back-end of the discussion with a strong finish.

Oklahoma State currently feels right on the outside of the hosting picture. They are 25-11 overall, 10-5 in the Big 12 and No. 23 in RPI. The Cowboys could factor in, though, if they have a strong end to the year and have an RPI in the top 20, at least. Winning the Big 12 regular season would help, too.