North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils: Final Four odds, final score predictions from ESPN, KenPom
The North Carolina Tar Heels (28-9) take on the Duke Blue Devils (32-6) in one of the most highly-anticipated Final Four games in the history of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET. Here’s how to watch, odds, ESPN BPI predictions and KenPom game predictions as well for both teams ahead of Saturday’s Final Four rivalry showdown.
How to watch North Carolina vs. Duke
Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS
Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans
Odds
Duke is a 4-point favorite over North Carolina on Saturday, according to Vegas Insider.
Money line: Duke -196, North Carolina +163
Spread: Duke -4, -112, North Carolina +4, –109
Total: Over/Under 151.5, -110
Check out the rest of Vegas’ odds for Saturday’s Final Four here.
ESPN BPI Predictions
Matchup quality: 89.3%
Win probability: Duke, 68.4%
Predicted point differential: 5.2
The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team’s W-L record is to achieve.
Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily,’ per ESPN.
For the rest of ESPN’s BPI predictions, click here.
KenPom Predictions
Score prediction: Duke 79, North Carolina 75
Win probability: Duke, 64%
Check out KenPom’s predictions for North Carolina vs. Duke and the entirety of college basketball’s biggest day here.
More on North Carolina vs. Duke
A historic game will take place on Saturday when North Carolina and Duke face-off in the Final Four. Considered the greatest rivalry in college basketball — and by many, the greatest in all of sports — the lights have never shined brighter on the matchup.
Additionally, an added level of intensity joins the rivalry as it takes place at the Final Four, with Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s career hanging in the balance. As you can see, there’s a myriad of storylines to follow entering Saturday’s game.
“The rivalry is real,” North Carolina coach Hubert Davis said of North Carolina-Duke meeting in the Final Four. “You have two elite programs seven miles apart, same conference, consistently putting out great teams and great programs on and off the court and in the classroom and in the community.
“So for the first time ever matching up in the Final Four is historic. It’s never happened before. The last time North Carolina and Duke were in the Final Four, I was a junior at Carolina in Indianapolis, and they ended up winning the National Championship, and we lost to Kansas.”
Duke enters the Final Four after winning the West Region of the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils defeated CSU Fullerton, Michigan State, Texas Tech and Arkansas on their way to New Orleans.
On the other hand, North Carolina cut down the nets as the victors of the East Region. The Tar Heels defeated Marquette, Baylor, UCLA and Saint Peter’s to get to the Final Four.
Now, the team separating Duke and North Carolina from the championship game is their greatest rival. You couldn’t write a better story in Hollywood.