On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine: Kentucky's lead for DJ Wagner shrinking

Camden (N.J.) five-star guard and On3 Consensus No. 1 overall recruit DJ Wagner is arguably the biggest recruit in the entire country in the 2023 class.

But there is no part of the country hanging on to his every move quite like the state of Kentucky, where both Kentucky and Louisville are duking it out to land the talented combo guard.

Wagner’s father, Dajuan Wagner, played for Kentucky coach John Calipari at Memphis before being selected with the sixth pick in the 2002 NBA Draft. His grandfather, Milt Wagner, coached with Calipari in the early 2000s as well.

But Milt also played for Louisville in the 1980s. One of his teammates was Kenny Payne, who was just hired by the Cardinals as their new head coach and is a family friend of the Wagners.

Kentucky was the runaway favorite for DJ Wagner, according to the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine, for the last few months. But Payne’s hiring has led to Louisville jumping back in the race.

The Wildcats still lead with a 71.5% chance of landing Wagner, but the Cardinals are now up to 27.2%.

RPM was released to the public in December. The On3 engineering group teamed up with Spiny.ai to create the industry’s first algorithm and machine learning-based product to predict where athletes will attend college. 

It factors in machine learning, expert predictions, social sentiment, visits, and historical trends. However, expert predictions are still a big piece of the RPM equation.

Wagner has had an excellent start to the AAU season, impressing On3’s Joe Tipton last weekend in Orlando.

“Dajuan Wagner Jr. has put on a scoring clinic during the first EYBL session,” Tipton said. “On the weekend, he’s averaging 24.3 points per game, good enough for second overall in the entire 17U age group. He’s played confidently, despite the pressure placed upon him. His jump shot has been falling for him at a high rate (53%) and this weekend he’s clearly looked like the best scoring guard in high school basketball.”