On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine: Where top EDGE prospects are trending

As the month of October kicks off, the top prospects at most positions in the 2023 On3 Consensus Rankings are committed. But the EDGE prospects are bucking that trend in a big way.

Of the top 15 players at the position, seven remain uncommitted — more than any of the other player groupings in this cycle. Included in that are the top three EDGE rushers in the country, as well as On3 five-star Damon Wilson, who we rank as the country’s No. 4 overall prospect.

With the help of the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM), we break down where each elite pass-rusher is trending as we barrel toward the Early Signing Period.

5-star EDGE Keon Keeley

School: Tampa (Fla.) Berkeley Prep
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 11
On3 NIL Valuation: $231K
On3 RPM: Alabama 52.4%, Ohio State 25.4%, Florida 20.3%
The Skinny: After decommitting from Notre Dame — the program he was pledged to for more than a year — earlier this month, Keon Keeley has unofficially been focused on three schools: Alabama, Ohio State and Florida. But after two visits to Ohio State in September, including an official, the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide have separated themselves, according to On3’s Chad Simmons. He’ll be in Tuscaloosa on Oct. 8, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a commitment to one of those programs soon after.

5-star EDGE Qua Russaw

School: Montgomery (Ala.) Carver
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 19
On3 NIL Valuation: $226K
On3 RPM: Alabama 74.6%, Auburn 14.3%, Florida 4.6%, Georgia 3.0%,
Summary: Qua Russaw is a high school teammate of fellow five-star defensive prospect James Smith, and both plan to play together at the next level. Simmons recently placed an expert pick in favor of the Crimson Tide, and they’re expected to be favorite all the way until he makes a decision — likely in December.

5-star EDGE Samuel M’Pemba

School: St. Louis (Mo.) IMG Academy
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 23
On3 NIL Valuation: $208K
On3 RPM: Georgia 94.6%, Missouri 1.5%
Summary: The RPM heavily favors the Bulldogs for Samuel M’Pemba, who has previously been very coy about where his recruitment stands. A recent slew of expert picks have gone in favor of Georgia, and a commitment could be come at any time. He currently has official visits scheduled to Tennessee on Oct. 14, Miami on Oct. 28, Georgia on Nov. 4, and LSU on Nov. 18.

On3 5-star EDGE Damon Wilson

School: Venice (Fla.)
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 44 (#4 in On300)
On3 NIL Valuation: $168K
On3 RPM: Georgia 36.0%, Alabama 31.5%, Ohio State 17.4%, Miami 11.3%
Summary: There has been no shortage of suitors for Damon Wilson, but he is officially down to four programs: Alabama, Georgia, Miami and Ohio State. According to On3’s Jeremy Johnson, the Bulldogs have made a strong case to Wilson, and he’s returning this weekend for an official visit after previously saying he didn’t plan to. The Crimson Tide hosted him this summer, and Ohio State also got him on campus in early September.

4-star EDGE Rueben Bain

School: Miami (Fla.) Central
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 90
On3 NIL Valuation: $121K
On3 RPM: Miami 90.1%, Auburn 2.4%, Alabama 2.1%
Summary: A decision isn’t expected any time soon for Rueben Bain, who told On3’s Chad Simmons he plans to make a decision on or around the first day of the Early Signing Period in December. Bain has already visited Auburn this fall and currently has plans to see Alabama and Florida State as well. With two official visits left, the Seminoles and rival Miami are in contention to get those trips. USC is another late entrant to his recruitment to keep an eye on, with Lincoln Riley and Co. looking to sell him on being a centerpiece of their defense.

4-star EDGE Tomarrion Parker

School: Phenix City (Ala.) Central
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 91
On3 NIL Valuation: $119K
On3 RPM: Clemson 61.5%, Florida 22.7%, Penn State 11.8%,
Summary: Tomarrion Parker decommitted from Penn State in August after being committed to the Nittany Lions for a couple months. Clemson immediately jumped into the mix with an offer, and the Tigers have had him on campus since then. He’s expected to return to Death Valley at least once more ‚ an Oct. 21 official visit. Tennessee and Florida are also expected to host him as well.

4-star EDGE Tausili Akana

School: Kahuku (Hawaii) Skyridge
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 93
On3 NIL Valuation: $114K
On3 RPM: Texas 24.0%, Nebraska 12.8%, Texas A&M 10.9%, Auburn 6.2%, Tennessee 6.2%
Summary: Of the uncommitted EDGE prospects, the recruitment of Tausili Akana has been the hardest to handicap thus far. He made an official visit to Texas last month, but still has four remaining with just a few months until the signing period. Tennessee and Auburn both hosted him over the summer, and Nebraska got him on campus this past weekend for an unofficial visit. Akana told InsideTexas after his official visit that he would like to see both Oklahoma and Texas A&M before he makes a decision.