Storylines to follow during the early signing period
Wednesday, November 9, is the first day of the early signing period. Many of the class of 2023 prospects are closing the final chapter of their high school careers, ready to open the door for their futures. While we already know the destinations for 87 percent of the 2023 On3 Consensus top 100 players, there are still 13 who have decisions to make.
As we embark on the week ahead, players No. 1 ranked DJ Wagner and No. 2 ranked Isaiah Collier are both expected to make a decision in the coming days. Here are some of the storylines I am tracking this week, which could possibly play a role in next season’s college basketball landscape.
Does ‘Dunk City’ play a role in top PG’s decision?
Southern California head coach Andy Enfield was the architect of Dunk City. The craze that took the college basketball landscape by storm during the 2013 NCAA Tournament. That Florida Gulf Coast team is still the only 15-seed to make a run to the Sweet 16.
During the recruiting process, sources have told me Enfield has made it a point to tell prospects he is looking to go back to the Dunk City style of play. This includes multiple point guards on the floor and playing fast.
Isaiah Collier, the No. 1 point guard in 2023 and the No. 2 player in the 2023 On3 Consensus, announced Michigan, Southern California, Cincinnati, and UCLA as his final schools. On3s Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM) gives Southern California a 93.4 percent chance of landing Collier. On3 has two expert picks in RPM; both are for the Trojans.
Texas is all in on signing week.
Ron Holland made life a little easier for Chris Beard when he announced for Texas on Saturday. Even with the 2023 On3 Consensus five-star in the fold, that will not necessarily make life easier for the Longhorns. Texas is in the final group for five-star point guard AJ Johnson, four-star shooting guard Andrej Stojakovic, and three-star center Cedric Lath; each enters the week uncommitted.
After getting Holland, Texas’s first commitment in the 2023 class, the Longhorns shot to No. 3 in the 2023 On3 team rankings. On3s team rankings take the average player rating of each commitment to set the order.
Only Stojakovic has announced a commitment date, Monday, November 7. The general thought for Stojakovic is Stanford or Texas. Intel suggests Lath will sign early, but no official date. Texas is fighting Houston for the 6-10 center. It is unknown if AJ Johnson will commit early or late.
…which makes me wonder,
What will AJ Johnson do?
The 2023 On3 Consensus No. 15 player, AJ Johnson, has as much basketball upside as any player in this class. At 6-foot-5, he has good length, a projectable – yet skinny – frame, and as much end-to-end speed as you will find in high school basketball.
In July, Johnson announced five senior-year official visits he would be taking, Southern California, LSU, NC State, Louisville, and Texas. Johnson took the LSU and Texas visits; he canceled the other three. When I spoke with Johnson at the October USA Basketball Training Camp, he said he wanted to watch each of the schools play, so he was looking toward signing late. However, there is some recent intel coming in saying that Johnson could sign early.
Also worth watching with Johnson is his Los Angeles (CA) Donda Academy just shut down, and he will be transferring high schools (editor’s note – Johnson announced his transfer to Los Angeles (CA) So Cal Academy). If Johnson signs early, watch for Texas and LSU; if he extends his recruitment to the late signing period, things could open up.
Will DJ Wagner follow his dad’s, or his grandad’s, footsteps?
Heading into the week of signing day, DJ Wagner is the 2023 On3 Consensus No. 1 player. Despite the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM) giving Kentucky a 99% chance of landing the five-star, his recruitment has been awfully quiet for a while.
Wagner’s dad, Dajuan Wagner, played for John Calipari at Memphis. In his lone 2001-02 college season, Wagner averaged 21.2 points, and he went on to become the sixth pick of the 2002 NBA Draft. What made this recruitment interesting was Louisville. New head coach Kenny Payne was a backcourt mate of Wagner’s grandfather, Milt Wagner, at Louisville. Payne hired Wagner to his Louisville staff this summer.
The general thought is Kentucky and Louisville are the two. The first expert pick went into On3s Recruiting Prediction Machine from KSR’s Zach Geoghegan when he chose Wagner to Kentucky on December 10, 2021.
With that, will anyone rival Kentucky’s 2023 class?
If John Calipari is able to close DJ Wagner, as expected, that would give Big Blue Nation their fourth 2023 On3 Consensus five-star heading into the week. Kentucky starts the week in first place in the 2023 On3 team ranking with an average committed player rating of 98.931
Heading into the week, Duke currently sits in second place in the 2023 On3 team rankings with five five-stars and an average player rating of 98.655. Texas could also make a jump this week. After getting their first commitment of the 2023 class, Ron Holland, they quickly jumped to third in the 2023 On3 team rankings. The Longhorns will be in play for three players this week.
It should also be noted there will be some player rankings updates as well, so team rankings will adjust even if teams stand pat. How will the team rankings look at week’s end?
Does Tad Boyle get it done?
Intel started coming out of Gilbert, Arizona, a couple of weeks ago, that four-star Cody Williams was down to a final two, LSU and Colorado. Williams used a summer that saw him average 14.9 points on Nike’s EYBL Circuit to enter National Signing Day week as the 2023 On3 Consensus No. 26 player.
Williams issued a top eight, and he has announced he will commit on November 9. There was a lot of buzz coming out that Arizona was in a good position, even with taking senior-year official visits to Southern California, LSU, Arizona, and Colorado.
On3s Recruiting Prediction Machine gives Colorado an 86.2 percent chance of landing Williams, and the only expert pick placed into On3s RPM is for Colorado. If Williams does, in fact, sign with Colorado on November 9, that would give the Buffaloes their highest ranked recruit of the Tad Boyle era.
Bruce Pearl vs. Eric Musselman
Both Bruce Pearl (Auburn) and Eric Musselman (Arkansas) are known as fierce recruiters. Five-star Baye Fall announced he would be committing on November 15; the thought is his decision will come down to Auburn and Arkansas.
Auburn has one commitment in the 2023 class, four-star point guard Aden Holloway. Arkansas has one commitment in the 2023 class, four-star point guard Layden Blocker.
Fall took his second official visit to Auburn on October 27. Auburn was also his first official visit, on June 20. Fall took his official visit to Arkansas on September 30. Another piece to watch here is Fall’s cousin Assane Diop is set to commit alongside Fall on the 15th. Diop, who lives with Fall, final three schools are Seton Hall, Colorado, and Arkansas.