Takeaways from the Preseason AP Poll Top 25 Rankings: Overrated, teams facing pressure
It’s not supposed to be this easy. I swear.
But in last week’s predicting the Preseason AP Poll Top 25 piece, I nailed 24 of the 25 teams — including the exact order of 1-9.
In the official Preseason AP Poll Top 25, Georgia checked in at No. 1 overall in its quest for a three-peat, receiving 60 of 63 first-place votes. The rest of the Top 5 went Michigan (2), Ohio State (1), Alabama and LSU.
USC, Penn State, Florida State, Clemson and Washington (not Texas surprisingly) rounded out the Top 10.
My lone miss of the entire field was Texas Tech, who has been a buzzy team this offseason but fell a few votes short of making the preseason rankings — checking in at No. 26 in the “others receiving votes” category. That’s where I had Iowa slotted, only the Hawkeyes were able to sneak into the poll at No. 25.
As expected, AP votes gave the benefit of the doubt to several helmet teams coming off underwhelming seasons (Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Texas A&M) and they made their faux-mandatory “one G5 school gets ranked” with Tulane at No. 24.
Overall, the SEC had six schools in the rankings, topping the Big Ten and Pac-12, which each had five.
Similarly to the USA Today Coaches Poll that was released last Monday, several of the same teams remain overrated, but at least the AP voters got the Top 5 in order right (namely Alabama behind Ohio State), and they ranked Iowa.
Here are some takeaways on today’s AP Poll Top 25:
OVERRATED
TCU and Oklahoma. Just like the Coaches Poll, voters rewarded the Horned Frogs for their magical 2022 season with a Top 20 ranking despite so much roster turnover and little returning production. At least Kansas State was ranked one spot ahead of TCU in today’s poll.
On the flip side, AP voters also gave the Sooners a blueblood bump even though we have zero evidence yet that Brent Venables has fixed their abominable defense.
At No. 20, the Sooners checked in with their lowest ranking since 1999 (streak of 10 straight Top 10 appearances snapped) — the last time since last season they were coming off a sub-.500 record.
As was the case with the Coaches Poll, you can certainly make a similar argument that Texas A&M is overrated coming off a 5-7 season, but from this vantage point, the Aggies have a stronger case for a rebound season. The pieces are there offensively (quarterback Connor Weigman, wideouts Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart, multiple returning starting OL), and they made a notable change at OC.
This is obviously a put-up or shut-up season for Jimbo Fisher, too.
PRESSURE’S ON, SEMINOLES AND NITTANY LIONS
I dubbed Clemson as “underrated” in the preseason Coaches Poll, and that remains true today with the exact same ranking. But let’s look at the other side of it. In the second major preseason poll, Florida State has been slotted ahead of its ACC rival.
Although the Tigers were picked to win the conference by the league’s media, the national narrative continues to hype up Mike Norvell’s Seminoles. With games against No. 5 LSU and No. 9 Clemson in the first month of the season, we’re going to find out quickly if quarterback Jordan Travis is truly a Top 5 Heisman Trophy contender and if FSU is “back.”
Meanwhile, Penn State returns a loaded squad this season, and voters seem to believe that Drew Allar could be the X-factor at quarterback to lead the Nittany Lions to wins over either Michigan or Ohio State.
Reminder: James Franklin is just 3-15 against Top 10 teams in seven seasons as the head coach at Penn State.
TULANE TAKES POLL POSITION
Coming off their best season in school history, Tulane was ranked in the preseason poll for the first time. As the lone G5 school in the rankings, the Green Wave got a head-start for a potential second-straight New Year’s Six berth.
Michael Pratt is back at quarterback and they return four starting offensive linemen. Their biggest competition stands to be UTSA, a newcomer to the AAC this fall and a team that had the fourth-most “receiving votes.”
NO QUALMS WITH IOWA OVER SOUTH CAROLINA OR UCLA
While some were miffed at the Hawkeyes getting a nod over the likes of South Carolina and UCLA, Kirk Ferentz has a Top 25 squad that deserves a preseason ranking. Iowa has the preseason No. 1 overall defense in SP+ and upgraded at quarterback with Cade McNamara, while adding pieces on the offensive line, tight end and receiver.
Shane Beamer is optimistic the Gamecocks can continue to exceed expectations in Year 3, and while they have some major OL concerns, the Gamecocks have a chance to make a statement in Week 1 against No. 21 North Carolina. Win the opener and South Carolina won’t be unranked for long.