Texas A&M has passed any crossroad and reached an inevitable path with Jimbo Fisher
At this point, Jimbo Fisher is Shrinkflation Kevin Sumlin.
Six seasons into Fisher’s tenure at Texas A&M, he’s delivered a worse product at a bloated price.
Check the stats:
After losing at Tennessee on Saturday, Fisher has coached 67 games for the Aggies. He was hired to bring championship results to a program that was tired of going 8-4. Well, it’s Year 6, and the Aggies will have to pull off an upset to even finish 8-4 in 2023.
I think we’re done here. It’s simply a matter of when for the power brokers in College Station.
Like all those timeouts he keeps taking into halftime each Saturday, Jimbo Fisher is going to pocket a guaranteed $77 million one way or another. Three years ago, the Aggies negotiated against themselves, making Fisher the highest-paid coach in the country. His insane buyout is their own undoing.
But after two straight losses in winnable games against Alabama and Tennessee, the deep-pocketed vultures are circling around Fisher once again. While the Aggies haven’t won much of anything on the field in the last 75 years, they’re second to none when it comes to passing the hat and raising money.
In a temperature check piece Wednesday, FOX Sports and The Athletic insider Bruce Feldman reported that Fisher has the hottest seat of any coach in the country, saying he’s been told, “Texas A&M will find the money to get rid of him if he can’t get this thing going.”
I’m not even sure what “get this thing going” looks like at this point, though.
Are the Aggies capable of saving their season?
The Aggies are a mediocre team with a mediocre coach. Perhaps running the table — meaning wins over South Carolina, both Mississippi schools, an FCS opponent and LSU — to go 9-3 would illicit some optimism that Fisher has figured something out and the program would enter 2024 — in a 12-team playoff year — with another Top 5 recruiting class and momentum.
Would you bet $67.5 million on it, though? Because that’s what Fisher would still be owned after the 2024 season. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas A&M less than a 10% chance to win out this fall.
The more likelihood is the Aggies go 8-4 or 7-5 and have a decision to make at the end of the season.
But again, it’s simply a decision of timing at this point.
The answer is right in front of them. The Aggies are not a championship program under Fisher, and they won’t suddenly turn into one after this week’s idle date.
Under Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M is the fanciest sports car on the lot, only with old tires and a Fiat engine.
Sure, it has a NIL war chest, the best facilities and a roster stacked with Top 5 recruiting classes. But the thing that makes it go circles back to the man in charge. The one who makes all the decisions.
And there’s your problem.
We have six years of data at this point, and the returns so far this fall are more of the same. The Aggies have wasted a legitimately nasty defense this season because of continued poor in-game coaching and an offense that’s broken again.
The Aggies lead the nation in tackles for loss (65) and rank Top 10 nationally in yards per play allowed. They rebounded from a bad showing at Miami to suffocate Auburn and Arkansas. They were good enough to beat Alabama, and they slowed Tennessee on Saturday.
Yet two winnable games — ones in which Texas A&M could’ve taken control of a wide-open SEC West — went up in smoke because the Aggies’ offense is a car crash. Again.
The Bobby Petrino experiment showed some improved results earlier in the 2023 season, but any ideas of an offensive renaissance are long gone now.
The Aggies mustered just 277 yards against the Vols after barely topping 300 versus Alabama. They can’t protect Max Johnson, who was hit 11 times and pressured on close to 65% of his drop-backs, per PFF, or run the ball (just 4.1 yards per carry). They lead the nation with 10 turnovers in the second half.
In the second half of the last three games, they have twice as many turnovers (6) as scoring drives (three field goals). Ainias Smith touched the ball just five times total the last two games. Evan Stewart hasn’t had more than four catches in a game in over a month. This is essentially the same offense that last year had the NFL’s most exciting rookie in De’Von Achane and managed just 19 plays over 30 yards — good for 104th nationally. Their OL has stunk for stunk for three years now, too.
For a coach who loves to harp on “details,” what more needs to be seen?
The Aggies don’t find themselves at a crossroads. They know the path they’ll inevitably take with Jimbo Fisher. His buyout will still be a record a year from now. Two years from now. How about until 2029 from now.
So check the price of oil come Thanksgiving. If it’s steady enough, especially with what’s also happening at the other school in Lone Star State, expect the funds to be found.