Oh, the madness! The ingredients needed to pull an NCAA tournament upset
In general, there are two kinds of fans during the NCAA tournament. There’s a group that fills out a bracket (or two) and cares only if their teams survive and advance in the tourney. The other group (including some who do fill out brackets) wants chaos; it wants carnage in the brackets; it wants (heck, hopes for) top-seeded teams to lose and for lower-seeded teams to get their moment in the sun. (The writer freely admits he belongs to the second group.)
A lot of the excitement in the NCAA tournament happens when the little guy jumps up and knocks out the bully. Why celebrate a No. 2 seed’s 25-point beatdown of a No. 15 seed? Instead, it’s more fun remembering when Hampton knocked out Iowa State, when high-flying Florida Gulf Coast took out Georgetown, when Bucknell stunned Kansas and, yes, when UMBC (pictured above) shocked the world by beating Virginia.
With that in mind, here’s a look at some key ingredients underdogs use to pull early-round upsets. We’re not talking about a 12 seed beating a 5 or an 11 beating a 6. We’re talking a real upset, when a team seeded at least nine spots lower causes chaos. With an eye toward this season’s bracket, we’ve included teams that have some of the necessary ingredients to pull those upsets.
Remember, though, that there are reasons teams seeded 13th or worse are seeded where they are. While they may be great from 3-point range, for instance, they may get crushed on the boards or not play much defense.
Star time
Think about the lower seeds that have pulled big first-round upsets in the NCAA tournament; a few have had a legit star who came up large. David Robinson (18 points, 18 rebounds) for 13th-seeded Navy against LSU in 1985. Marc Brown (32 points, 6 assists) for 14th-seeded Siena against Stanford in 1989. Bryce Drew (22 points, 8 assists, the buzzer-beating game-winning 3-pointer) for 13th-seeded Valparaiso against Ole Miss in 1998. Harold “The Show” Arceneaux (36 points, 5-of-7 from 3-point range) for 14th-seeded Weber State against North Carolina in 1999. C.J. McCollum (30 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists) for 15th-seeded Lehigh against Duke in 2012. Kyle O’Quinn (26 points, 14 rebounds, 10-of-16 from the field) for 15th-seeded Norfolk State against Missouri in 2012. R.J. Hunter (16 points, including the game-winning 3-pointer with 2.7 seconds left) for 14th-seeded Georgia State against Baylor in 2015. Max Abmas (29 points, 5-of-10 from 3-point range) for 15th-seeded Oral Roberts against Ohio State in 2021.
Fitting the profile this season: Cal State Fullerton’s E.J. Anosike (16.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg), Vermont F Ryan Davis (17.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 42.3 percent from 3-point range), Wright State G Tanner Holden (19.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, nation’s-leading 201 made free throws), Bryant G Peter Kiss (nation’s-leading 25.1 ppg), South Dakota State G Baylor Scheierman (18.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 4.6 apg, 47.3 percent from 3-point range), Chattanooga G Malachi Smith (20.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.6 spg, 50.7 percent from the field), Yale G Azar Swain (19.2 ppg, 89.1 percent at foul line).
Bombs away
The great equalizer in college basketball is the 3-point shot. Remember that shooting 38 percent from 3-point range is the equivalent to shooting 57 percent on 2-pointers; shooting 41 percent from 3-point range is the equivalent to 61.5 percent on 2-pointers.
Fitting the profile this season: Colgate (40.3 percent, 2nd nationally, 9.9 3-pointers per game), Jacksonville State (38.8 percent, 5th nationally, 9.3 3-pointers per game), Longwood (37.9 percent, 19th nationally, 8.2 3-pointers per game), South Dakota State (44.9 percent, 1st nationally, 9.4 3-pointers per game).
Efficient on both ends of the court
The indispensable kenpom.com has all sorts of analytical data for each of the 358 Division I teams. (And make sure to read this before you fill out your NCAA tournament bracket.) One of the most important is offensive and defensive efficiency; that’s points scored/allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents.
Fitting the profile this season: Saint Peter’s (34th nationally defensively), South Dakota State (12th nationally offensively), Vermont (44th nationally offensively)
Don’t get rattled
Senior leadership is crucial in March. Experienced teams don’t tend to fold.
Fitting the profile: Bryant (four senior starters, one junior starter), Colgate (three senior starters, two junior starters; won at Syracuse this season), Jacksonville State (four senior starters, one junior starter), Norfolk State (three senior starters, two junior starters), Texas Southern (four senior starters, one junior starter; won at Florida this season), Vermont (five senior starters).
Size matters
It’s always easier for a double-digit seed to pull an upset when the opponent doesn’t have a roster filled with big men. Once in a while, a “smaller” school’s big guys are the best on the floor. Regardless, in these situations, the big guys need to put up big numbers.
Fitting the profile this season: Cal State Fullerton 6-7 F E.J. Anosike (16.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg), Wright State 6-9 F Grant Basile (18.5 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.6 bpg), Montana State 6-9 F Jubrile Belo (13.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.8 bpg), Vermont 6-8 C Ryan Davis (17.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 42.3 percent from 3-point range), South Dakota State 6-7 F Douglas Wilson (16.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg).
It’s all about strategy
There are numerous excellent coaches toiling in “lesser” leagues. This is the time for those guys to shine.
Fitting the profile this season: Vermont’s John Becker, Akron’s John Groce, Jacksonville State’s Ray Harper, Yale’s James Jones, Wright State’s Scott Nagy, Chattanooga’s Lamont Paris