Updated NCAA Tournament projection ahead of college basketball season
Tuesday has arrived, and with it comes the start of the 2021-2022 college basketball season. Two years ago, the NCAA Tournament was called off due to COVID-19. Last season, the season looked drastically different, and the NCAA Tournament was as well. On the day of the new season and a return to college basketball as we once knew it, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released his updated 2022 NCAA Tournament projections.
First four out/last four in
Last four in (that don’t play in the First Four): Florida, BYU, Colorado, Saint Mary’s.
Last four in (to play in the First Four): San Diego State, St. John’s, Rutgers, Washington State.
First four out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Iowa, Oklahoma.
Next four out: Arizona, Drake, Nevada, Creighton.
Lunardi’s NCAA Tournament field projection: West Region
1 Gonzaga vs. 16 Texas Southern/Morgan State
8 LSU vs. 9 Syracuse
5 Oregon vs. 12 Buffalo
4 Ohio State vs. 13 New Mexico State
6 St. Bonaventure vs. 11 Colorado
3 Memphis vs. 14 Wright State
7 Michigan State vs. 10 Florida
2 Baylor vs. 15 Colgate
East region
1 Michigan vs. 16 Yale
8 Xavier vs. 9 Notre Dame
5 Florida State vs. 12 Belmont
4 Arkansas vs. 13 Liberty
6 Auburn vs. 11 St. John’s/Rutgers
3 Duke vs. 14 Southern Utah
7 Indiana vs. 10 Colorado State
2 Villanova vs. 15 Georgia State
Midwest Region
1 Kansas vs. 16 Winthrop
8 Virginia vs. 9 Richmond
5 Tennessee vs. 12 UAB
4 Houston vs. 13 UC Santa Barbara
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Saint Mary’s
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Georgia State
7 Texas Tech vs. 10 Louisville
2 Purdue vs. 15 Northeastern
South Region
1 UCLA vs. 16 Bryant/Nicholls State
8 Virginia Tech vs. 9 West Virginia
5 Maryland vs. 12 San Diego State/Washington State
4 Alabama vs. 13 South Dakota State
6 UConn vs. 11 Loyola Chicago
3 Illinois vs. 14 Furman
7 USC vs. 10 BYU
2 Texas vs. 15 Iona
Lunardi’s NCAA Tournament projection was last updated on Tuesday, November 9 at 7 a.m. ET.
Gonzaga is the top overall seed in the tournament in Lunardi’s projection
Gonzaga’s undefeated run ended in last season’s national championship. Baylor ultimately pulled away with an 86-70 victory to win a title last season. Last season’s tournament was an eventful one, with many surprising runs. 11th seeded UCLA made a run all the way to the Final Four, only losing by three to Gonzaga for a spot in the title game. 12th seeded Oregon State made a run to the Elite Eight before falling to Houston.
Last year’s Final Four was Gonzaga, UCLA, Baylor, and Houston. Each of those teams have strong projections in Lunardi’s 2022 NCAA Tournament field. Lunardi projects Gonzaga as the top overall seed, with UCLA as another one seed. Baylor is projected as a two seed, while Houston is a four.
The ACC leads the way along with the SEC in Lunardi’s projection, as the conferences have eight teams each in this tournament field. The Big Ten has seven, while the Big 12 and Pac-12 have four selections. Other conferences with multiple selections are the Big East (four teams), WCC (two), American (three), Atlantic 10 (2), and Mountain West (2).
Villanova is the first preseason AP top 25 team to play on Tuesday, starting at 4:30 p.m. ET against Mount St. Mary’s. A lot of the opening night action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET.