Where do teams with coaches on the hot seat entering 2024 stand in ESPN's returning production rankings?
The 2023-24 coaching cycle isn’t even complete, but it’s not too early to take a peek at a six-pack of power conference coaches facing various degrees of heat entering next season.
Sift through any number of Way-Too-Early-Hot-Seat lists and you’ll see names like Florida’s Billy Napier, Baylor’s Dave Aranda and Arkansas’ Sam Pittman frequently mentioned.
UCLA’s Chip Kelly, who is already looking for an exit ramp out of Westwood, Vandy’s Clark Lea and Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi are oftentimes listed, too.
With the initial transfer portal window closed and now both signing days in the books, what sort of rosters do these coaches have right now?
Who might be set for a rebound season that not only saves the coach’s job but changes the narrative around their program (see: Neal Brown and Eli Drinkwitz just last season)?
Or which coaches could be looking at real trouble come the fall of 2024?
Earlier this week, I examined ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s initial 2024 returning production data from the lens of which first-year coaches were best positioned for potential success.
What does the data reveal about coaches who may be on the hot seat?
In a column last season, I reviewed eight coaches in a similar exercise — and four were ultimately fired.
Reminder: It’s not a guarantee that just because a roster returns X amount of production that School Y will perform positively or negatively, but over time, the percentages correlate to improvement and regression.
Billy Napier, Florida – 32nd (68% returning production: 70% OFF, 66% DEF)
Dave Aranda, Baylor — 41st (66% returning production: 71% OFF, 62% DEF)
Pat Narduzzi, Pitt – 53rd (64% returning production: 65% OFF, 62% DEF)
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt – 76th (60% returning production: 54% OFF, 65% DEF)
Chip Kelly, UCLA – 95th (51% returning production: 51% OFF, 51% DEF)
Sam Pittman, Arkansas — 109th (46% returning production: 50% OFF, 41% DEF)
Off the jump, it’s interesting that no coach *currently* viewed as a hot-seat candidate has a Top 25 roster in returning production for 2024. Last season, Drinkwitz did parlay a veteran squad (No. 9 nationally in the initial 2023 rankings) into a major rebound season, and Jeff Hafley (who now is off to the NFL) and Greg Schiano also took advantage of Top 25 returning production (plus some schedule breaks).
For many, Napier is seen as a dead man walking, especially with Florida’s grueling 2024 schedule, but the Gators do return the bulk a of young squad that got a wealth of experience last season — ranking 4th in the SEC in returning production.
While Florida did lose its top receiver (Ricky Pearsall) and second-leading rusher (Trevor Etienne), the rest of the offense is mostly back. Napier has also added nearly a dozen transfers already, particularly looking to upgrade Florida’s defensive personnel with the additions of guys like Washington safety Asa Turner, Oregon safety Trikweze Bridges and South Carolina linebacker Grayson Howard.
Baylor, Pitt and Vandy all rank in the middle of the pack of returning production. Lea is in the toughest spot, as the Commodores’ roster was ransacked in the transfer portal (18 departures, many of whom were starters).
Vandy did nab New Mexico quarterback Diego Pavia, while Baylor’s offensive production is boosted by the addition of Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn. Aranda is just 9-16 since leading the Bears to the Big 12 title in 2021, and he desperately needs Finn to mesh well with new OC Jake Spavital.
It’s no secret that Chip Kelly is eyeing an exit from UCLA, and it’s not hard to see why. The former two-time NFL head coach isn’t a fan of the current direction of college football, and he no longer has a roster that looks to be competitive, either. The Bruins had one of the top defenses in the country in 2023, and won just eight games.
Now they return a unit without their top-flight DC, their best pass rusher and multiple starters to the portal. UCLA’s 51% returning production ranks 12 of 16 in the Big Ten — ahead of only USC, Maryland, Michigan and Washington.
Finally, poor Sam Pittman. One of the most well-liked coaches in the country survived a 4-8 season in 2023, but unless the Razorbacks make major hey in the second transfer portal window, he’ll have one of the least experienced teams in the SEC in 2024.
Arkansas lost 25 players to the portal already, and the Hogs rank ahead of only Alabama and Mississippi State in returning production for 2024. Former Boise State quarterback Taylen Green will replace KJ Jefferson, and Arkansas is hoping all three OL transfers hit.