2025 NBA Draft mailbag: Ace Bailey vs. Shedeur Sanders pre-draft talk, Mark Pope prospects vs. John Calipari prospects

The 2025 NBA Draft is just over 24 hours away, with intrigue building over how both round will play out on Wednesday and Thursday. Coming off a seven-game series in the NBA Finals which again shifted the outlook of next season, a wide range of options are open over the days and weeks to come.

As questions NBA Draft boards and potential trade candidates remain a focus, there are already plenty moves to assess. Meanwhile, the trends set forward in the playoffs promise to shape the next set of moves across the league.

From the Top Five all the way down to the last picks of the second round, there are a lot of topics to unpack. After seeking the top questions on the mind of NBA fans and college basketball fans alike, here are the answers to some of the most intriguing topics.

Q: What is Ace Bailey doing? Did he not watch Shedeur Sanders tank his draft stock?

Ace Bailey‘s pre-draft process has become the biggest conversation leading into draft night. While there is no clear reason readily available for the lack of interviews and workouts for NBA teams, his representation continues to indicate they are confident in the process.

Cancelling an interview with the Philadelphia 76ers brought the conversation into the public eye at a higher level. While it is not unheard of for top prospects to hold back from certain teams or to cancel meetings, the surrounding talk has led to larger conversations about the level of player he views himself as and the strategy his representation has chosen.

To the second part of the question, there is no doubt that public conversations will center on the fall of two highly-confident players who slid down the board from their projected spot. The other intersection comes with the belief of certain people within the respective leagues that Bailey and Shedeur Sanders both view themselves as franchise-changing stars despite more questions about their game.

Where the comparison is sure to fall apart, among others, is the ultimate fall of Ace Bailey. Based on the tiers of prospects and difference in depth between an NFL Draft and NBA Draft, he will not end up on Day Two. However, a fall from 3 to 6 would cost more than $10 million over the course of a rookie contract.

Q: Who has potential for a draft night trade?

While there is no way the No. 1 pick is being moved by the Dallas Mavericks, and there is almost no chatter about the San Antonio Spurs moving the No. 2 pick, there could certainly be movement driven by the Ace Bailey conversation.

Rumors that the Philadelphia 76ers could move the No. 3 pick have continued to cool, although it is the first asset which could be available to teams who have a strong preference in Tier 3. Any shuffling done within the Top 10 is likely to come amongst those teams as they position themselves best for their target.

One other team to watch making a big move on the board is the Oklahoma City Thunder, coming off an NBA title with 15 players currently set to return next season. They currently own two first round picks with no roster space, opening the door for a big move up — potentially to No. 11 with the Portland Trail Blazers who continue to fuel their rebuild with young talent — or another team who could benefit from multiple picks.

Beyond that, the flat draft offers a lot of room for shuffling outside the Top 10 through the bottom of the first round. There is also a growing need for certain teams to dodge the NBA’s salary cap rules from the luxury tax to both aprons and a number of other motives as well.

Q: What picks are considered a lock entering draft day?

At this point in the process, the only two picks which seem a total lock are No. 1 and No. 2. The Dallas Mavericks are set to pick Cooper Flagg followed by the San Antonio Spurs selecting Dylan Harper. From there many teams have narrowed down their pool of prospects, creating more floors than locks.

VJ Edgecombe, for instance, seems the favorite over Ace Bailey to land with the Philadelphia 76ers. However, a team trading up or a flip in opinion would almost lock Edgecombe in with the Charlotte Hornets.

There are also certain teams who are guaranteed to select a certain type of player. The Hawks are in need of a center with one of their two picks, while the Suns hold a similar need. Meanwhile, teams like the Nets could select any combination of positions, styles or ages with their many picks.

Q: Over/under 1.5 Kentucky players drafted? What does that say about Mark Pope, John Calipari?

I will continue to take the over on 1.5 Kentucky players being drafted this year, with Koby Brea likely to come off the board first. Amari Williams will likely be the second player, with an outside shot to be the first if the center runs dries out draftable options earlier there.

The outside chance of a third player drafted does still exist for Jaxson Robinson, but he will almost certainly end up getting a Summer League deal either way. Andrew Carr fits in the same conversation.

Obviously, John Calipari long took pride in the number of Kentucky players he put in the NBA Draft, but both sides took a new approach. Sure, Arkansas will not have any players selected in the 2025 NBA Draft outside of Adou Thiero, but they also bring back five players this season, with Boogie Fland and Zvonimir Ivisic both transferring.

On the other side, Mark Pope put together a roster from scratch, pulling in a combination of players looking to raise their NBA Draft stock and others who simply wanted the best chance of college success. Both programs will get a better chance to show their ability to attract and develop talent this season with multiple incoming freshmen on both sides, plus some intriguing transfers.

Q: Why are teams projecting Jeremiah Fears, Kon Knueppel above Tre Johnson?

On my final 2025 NBA Draft big board, I had Tre Johnson hold strong at No. 3, believing that he has moved closer to No. 2 than the rest of the field was able to move toward him. However, that does not necessarily match with the intel moving around the league.

Both Jeremiah Fears and Kon Knueppel have been mentioned as alternatives for the teams with strong interest in Tre Johnson, with Ace Bailey and VJ Edgecombe also in the same tier. I previously focused on the comparison with Edgecombe here.

My board finalized with Fears at No. 18, suggesting a clear gap behind Johnson. While Fears is more of a true point guard, he struggles with more efficiency issues than his counterpart while taking a similar amount of usage. The vision for Fears is long-term, but there does not appear to be a huge gap from his ceiling to Johnson’s if any exists.

Knueppel is often touted as a safe alternative to the other guards on the board, but has landed at No. 6 on my board thanks to some intriguing upside outcomes. There are more teams who make sense choosing the off-ball offense based on current roster, at least warranting a conversation.

Quick hitters

Q: Who is the best player going in the second round?

This question obviously relies on a lot of projection, giving the lap of gap between the final picks of the first round and the start of the second round. The easy answer is that whichever player currently ranked in the late teens or early 20s does not find a home will be the best selected on Day Two.

While I do not believe he should fall that far, Rasheer Fleming is without question my highest-ranked prospect with an outside chance of falling past Day One. Perhaps the player who could fall with the highest upside is Ben Saraf, who has intriguing on-ball creation to pair with size and team success in Europe.

Q: Which players have bust potential in the first round?

Bust potential often centers on the intersection between theoretical upside with time needed to achieve it. There are plenty players who could become special if they add or subtract part of their game, but it is never that easy.

I have moved Jeremiah Fears down my board based on this time horizon, as well as Will Riley — both some of the youngest players in the class. Egor Demin is another player with a wide range of outcomes based on his runway and development.

Q: What should the Suns do at No. 10 and No. 29?

The Phoenix Suns have no need at shooting guard after trading Kevin Durant for Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks, along with the No. 10 pick. They do, however, have needs at forward and center, along with point guard long-term. The biggest struggle is balancing short-term goals set by the franchise with what almost certainly needs to be a long-term plan given the lack of assets available.

Carter Bryant is a name early which makes a lot of sense early to thread that needle, as is Maxime Raynaud at No. 29 if he drops that far. However, there should be no name ruled out given the urgency to impress Devin Booker ahead of contract negotiations.

Q: Should the Grizzlies trade the No. 16 pick?

The Memphis Grizzlies had very little flexibility entering the offseason, focused on getting an extension done with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama. The Desmond Bane trade allowed them to stockpile both picks and players with tradeable value.

Whether or not they should trade the pick relies entirely on what is available. If they can acquire a high-upside player who can also add value next season, they will likely get more than a trade. If not, packaging the trade with other assets could help facilitate the goals moving forward.

Q: When will your final mock draft release?

My final mock draft for 2025 will release Tuesday night. However, if information shifts in the early hours Wednesday there could be edits made. Stay tuned for this and more NBA Draft coverage throughout the day, including grades for every pick, a 2025 Second-Round Mock Draft, and a way-too-early 2026 NBA Mock Draft.