Mel Kiper Jr. explains the biggest differences between Caleb Williams' 2022, 2023 seasons

In 2022, Caleb Williams took the college football world by storm as he won the Heisman Trophy. He had nearly 5,000 total yards — 4,537 passing and 382 rushing — and 52 total touchdowns as he became the favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The 2023 season, while still impressive, didn’t go quite as well. Williams threw for 3,633 yards and 30 touchdowns with 142 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. Still, he’s the likely choice to go atop the draft board no matter what the Chicago Bears decide to do with the top selection.

But there was still a clear difference between 2022 and 2023, and ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. said there were a few different factors in play.

“He didn’t have Jordan Addison this year. Things went awry a little bit at USC,” Kiper said on ESPN 1000’s Waddle and Silvy in Chicago. “I don’t see any great offensive linemen, I didn’t see any great wide receivers. They had a good running back, but they didn’t use him necessarily enough. So you think about it. Really, you have agents now, you’re doing commercials. You’re a pro when you’re playing college. He had won the Heisman, he had done all those great things. The team wasn’t gonna play for the national title, and you get distracted a little bit, and people start to criticize and they don’t see the greatness every week that you saw in 2022, so you start nitpicking a bit.

“But I think Caleb’s got everything. He’s got arm talent, arm angles, accuracy. He was at 66%, a little over 66% when everybody said he was Mahomes-like. He was at 68.6 this year. He’s 72 touchdowns, 10 picks. You factor in the rushing touchdowns, he has 93 touchdowns and 10 picks over the last two years. Are you kidding me? Again, people want to criticize, nitpick. Caleb Williams, I think, is gonna be a great NFL quarterback.”

Williams’ special 2022 season led to plenty of comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. The Kansas City Chiefs star can also improvise and has taken the NFL by storm, making six consecutive AFC Championship games.

The similarities are striking even after Williams’ up-and-down campaign in 2023 — although a team can maximize his skillset in a way similar to how Andy Reid did with Mahomes. If that doesn’t happen, it might not work out as well.

“I think because of the fact that he is so improv, so much on the fly,” Kiper said. “Things break down, he can do it in a structured situation. Again, that’s up to the coordinator. That’s up to the system. Tailor it towards him. I said the same thing about Patrick Mahomes when he came out of Texas Tech. Improv, does a lot of great things from the pocket. I’ve seen Caleb do great things from the pocket.”

Mel Kiper Jr.: The Bears’ decision with the No. 1 pick is ‘not easy, by any stretch’

All eyes are on the Bears, who have the No. 1 pick for the second straight year from the Carolina Panthers. But they have a quarterback already in Justin Fields. Chicago could opt to trade Fields and recoup the second-rounder from the Montez Sweat trade and draft Caleb Williams, or trade the top selection again for a haul of future picks.

Either way, Kiper said it could work out for the Bears, whom he projected to stay at No. 1 in his Mock Draft 1.0. When it comes to developing Williams, though, he pointed to some other unique situations to prove he could find immediate success in the NFL.

“If you think Justin can be in another year with that infrastructure around him, then you move forward with him. That’s why I say this is a call where both can be really good,” Kiper said. “Then, you’re saying, ‘Hey, we can’t make a bad decision here if you think that.’ If you think one can be maybe a little better than the other, than you’ve got to go that route. If you believe they’re even, you reset the clock and you go with Caleb.

“And this notion, ‘Well, you’ve got to develop him,’ you see what C.J. Stroud did right away. It took Josh Allen until his second year before he was really turning the corner and was great. Mahomes redshirted his first year, then was great. So again, there’s no easy decision. This is not easy, by any stretch. And I think the Bears have to wait it out. They just brought in some new coaches from the offensive side. Wait it out, do all your due diligence and then make the right call.”