ESPN Expert: Texas 'might be the most overvalued team in all of college football'

Texas, coming off consecutive 12-plus win seasons and back-to-back appearances in the College Football Playoff, is expected to again be one of the top teams in the sport next season. That said, ESPN’s Joe Fortenbaugh thinks that Vegas is a little too high on the Longhorns.

Fortenbaugh took a look at Texas’ win total, which is set at 10.5 at BET ESPN, while on ‘Get Up’ on Friday. He would describe the Longhorns as “the most overvalued team” going into the fall, with their schedule looking like an under to him based on who’s on it in the non-conference and in the SEC.

“They might be the most overvalued team in all of college football this year,” Fortenbaugh said. “The win total is 10.5. You’re only playing 12 games. Conference championships, playoffs? That stuff doesn’t count.”

“I’d bet the under,” Fortenbaugh said. “All we need are two losses. I see them losing to Ohio State to open the season. And then, as you work your way down, there are plenty of problems – road game at Florida, road game at Georgia. Fourth-toughest schedule in the nation.”

Again, Texas is trending as well as any team in college football at this point, going into its fifth year under Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns have won more games in each season of his tenure, leading to a 12-2 record in the Big 12 in 2023 and a 13-3 record in the SEC in 2024, as they were 11-1 coming out of both of those regular seasons.

Texas would compete respectively in the Big 12 and SEC Championships and either be in or make it to the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff in the final year of the four-team field and the first of the 12-team one, post-expansion. Now, finally led by QB Arch Manning, the Longhorns will open this season among the best in the sport, considering what they’ll also bring back in the run game and on defense.

Still, Fortenbaugh isn’t necessarily wrong about the total in relation to the Longhorns’ schedule. Opening the season in what’s sure to be a top-rated matchup, and a playoff rematch from last postseason, against the defending national champions in Columbus already doesn’t give much of a margin for a total of 10.5. That’s before even getting to conference play with road games in Gainesville and Athens and rivalry matchups against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry and Texas A&M in the regular-season finale.

Texas is likely to be favored as a national title contender, set to potentially make its third-straight appearance in the CFP. That said, 10.5 feels, based on their schedule, to be too much for Fortenbaugh when it comes to the Longhorns’ win total in 2025.

“So, yeah, under 10.5,” Fortenbaugh said. “I think this is a team that’s very overvalued.”