Why receiver, offensive line will dominate Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft
One of the most highly anticipated NFL Drafts in recent history kicks off on Thursday, as all eyes will be on Detroit to see how things shake out in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
This year’s draft is highlighted by the depth at the quarterback position, which has rightfully dominated the national conversation. But On3’s Andy Staples and Jesse Simonton believe that wide receivers and offensive linemen have the potential steal the show when the first round is all said and done.
“I had four quarterbacks and five receivers in my [first round] mock, and the five receivers are Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr., and AD Mitchell. Now I think Ladd McConkey could wind up in the first round, I think there’s a chance Xavier Worthy could wind up in the the first round,” Staples said.
“With the receivers, it’s really what flavor do you want and do you get kind of a run on the bank situation where everybody who needs a receiver is like okay we need to take one right now.”
The overall talent at the wide receiver position seems to increase year after year as college wideouts make their jump to the NFL. Highlighted by a class this year that features a multitude of pass catchers that have different sizes and skill sets that will cater to a variety of different NFL offenses.
But the same applies on the offensive line in this year’s draft which features a ton of players at different positions who can protect franchise quarterbacks and create rushing lanes in the run game this upcoming NFL season.
“To me, it’s like receiver and offensive line,” Simonton said. “Now offensive line, I think you’re going to see double-digit offensive linemen in the first round and that’s guard, tackle, and then you have a couple centers there with the Duke kid [Graham Barton] and [Jackson] Powers-Johnson from Oregon. Zach Frazier could find his way in there, again I say minimum 10, then you can list another two or three guys. But it’s a flavor of ice cream at offensive line and receiver, I mean it’s kind of just what are you looking for?”
The offensive line is often overlooked but highly valuable, and also has the highest hit rate in recent history. As Staples referenced a calculation from ESPN’s Paul Hembo that shows the center, offensive tackle, and offensive guard positions have had the most success out of any other position in the last 20 NFL Drafts. With wide receiver representing the position with the lowest hit rate at just 27% in the past two decades.
Depth at certain positions could also result in teams being more patient as well in the draft, with franchises holding out a little bit longer knowing there are more options down the line. As it will surely be fascinating to see now just how many offensive linemen and wideouts are selected in the first round, but where they end up landing.