Stat Attack: UTEP
There’s a clear duality to this Louisiana Tech football team.
Over their last two games, the Bulldogs have put up some eye-catching numbers in the first half: 27 combined points in the first quarter, 30 in the second. But then comes a complete offensive blackout in the third quarter.
So at first glance, it looks like Louisiana Tech has a “third-quarter problem.” But dig a little deeper, and it becomes clear the issue is a little more complicated than that. The real story lies in how well Tech stays ahead of the chains.
I’ve mentioned success rate before – the measure of how often a team gains the necessary yardage to stay on schedule. That means gaining at least 50% of the required yards on first down, 70% on second down, and the full yardage on third or fourth down to move the chains.
This time, though, I’m going to add another layer: the idea of standard downs versus passing downs. A passing down is defined as a second down with seven or more yards to go, or a third or fourth down and five or more yards. Any other situation is considered a standard down.
Despite the point totals, Louisiana Tech’s offense hasn’t been efficient, even on standard downs. That said, they’re still better than UTEP:
As long as the playbook stays open and they don’t fall behind schedule, the Bulldogs can function well enough. But once they’re forced to pass, things go downhill quickly.
On passing downs, Tech’s offense is actually overtaken by UTEP’s:
This Louisiana Tech offense isn’t built to recover from long-yardage situations. The passing game just hasn’t shown the consistency needed to keep drives alive once they’re behind the chains.
Fortunately for Tech, the defense has been able to keep them in games. While the offense has been merely serviceable on standard downs, the defense has been truly elite – currently ranked 18th nationally in standard down success rate.
But like the offense, the defense begins to show cracks when faced with passing downs.
Of the 17 teams ranked higher than Tech in standard down success rate, none struggle as much with passing downs. In that category, the Bulldogs fall from their 18th ranking to 81st in college football.
And this is where things can get interesting. Of all the teams on Tech’s schedule, UTEP is the most pass-heavy.
The Miners aren’t likely to try to establish the run and may abandon it altogether if Tech’s run defense continues to be as stout as it has been all season. Instead, quarterback Malachi Nelson and the UTEP offense will look to attack the Bulldogs where they’ve been most vulnerable: through the air.
However, this approach carries real risk. UTEP currently ranks as the 12th most interception-prone team in the country. Meanwhile, Tech’s defense is one of the most opportunistic in the nation, ranking seventh in interceptions per game. If the Miners are careless with the ball, as they have often been this season, Tech’s defense could dominate regardless of down and distance.
On the defensive side, UTEP’s job is simple in concept: don’t make life easy for Louisiana Tech. The more the Bulldogs are forced to put together long, penalty-free drives, the more likely we are to see punter John Hoyet Chance on the field.
Louisiana Tech isn’t just a “first half offense” or a “bad third quarter team.” They’re an offense that depends on efficiency and becomes vulnerable when forced to throw.
UTEP has the blueprint to exploit those weaknesses. The question is whether they can avoid falling into the same traps that have plagued them all season long.
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Nathan is also a contributor to gtpdd.dog, a lighthearted Louisiana Tech blog. Be sure to check out @gotechplsdntdie on Twitter.
